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  • #10,281
  • Jun 28, 2016 1:22pm Jun 28, 2016 1:22pm
should hit 1.33
  • #10,282
  • Jun 29, 2016 10:57am Jun 29, 2016 10:57am
I am starting to doubt that, it has been testing 1.3100 for a while now and it still hasn't been able to break above that level. We might see a move to the downside first, before it makes another attempt to break above the resistance.
  • #10,283
  • Jun 29, 2016 11:09am Jun 29, 2016 11:09am
Quoting dianajs
I am starting to doubt that, it has been testing 1.3100 for a while now and it still hasn't been able to break above that level. We might see a move to the downside first, before it makes another attempt to break above the resistance.
I'm very bearish USD/CAD. Been talking about it for a couple weeks now. We're essentially in a consolidation zone... a triangle, after a large move down. My bias is that we break to the downside and I'm short with an average position of 1.3060.

The daily chart is clearly in a downtrend with price now having been successfully rejected from a) the top of the consolidation range, and b) the 100-day SMA:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you zoom into the hourly, there's a clear topping pattern forming. The first logical target is the bottom portion of the triangle consolidation around 1.2750 -- but I bet we break that and head much lower:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2016-06-29 09.08.36.png Size: 286 KB


Once we do break that (if we do), I will be adding substantially to my short position.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #10,284
  • Jun 29, 2016 12:09pm Jun 29, 2016 12:09pm
My Trading plan

Looking at COT data, Speculators have been net long in CAD futures for a while. The gap is now slowly closing and they are almost at par. They hold 40K longs vs 38K short positions.
If this trend continues, we could see specs turning bearish once again.
USDCAD seems to bottom out at 1.24 and has been trending up ever since. Daily price action made higher high and retracement towards 1.2630.
This would suggest, the downtrend might be completed.
Currently USDCAD is approaching a major resistance at 1.31 area. This level was responsive in the past and it could see some selling pressure once again.
Given the COT data, I expect the resistance to be broken after the retracement.
There are two scenarios this could play out:
1.
The resistance at 1.31 holds once again and the price drops.
If this is the case, I expect it to touch 1.28. This could be a good level to buy USDCAD.
2.
The price moves up and breaks the resistance. If this is the case, the retracement back towards 1.1330, the former resistance and now support should be a great spot to enter longs.

Two above scenarios are only if you are a bull in this market. The break below 1.2450 will invalidate bullish scenarios.
Date: 06/28/2016
Pair: USDCAD
Trade: Buy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad trading plan.JPG Size: 122 KB
HumbleTraders
  • #10,285
  • Jun 29, 2016 3:12pm Jun 29, 2016 3:12pm
What do you guys think on the USDCAD ? you think its going to go further down ?
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #10,286
  • Jun 29, 2016 5:37pm Jun 29, 2016 5:37pm
Quoting procrude
What do you guys think on the USDCAD ? you think its going to go further down ?
I'm honestly just curious... did you read any of the posts before you asked this question? I clearly outlined my thoughts two posts before you wrote this.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #10,287
  • Jun 29, 2016 6:00pm Jun 29, 2016 6:00pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I'm honestly just curious... did you read any of the posts before you asked this question? I clearly outlined my thoughts two posts before you wrote this.

Maybe he wants someone else's opinion
  • #10,288
  • Jun 29, 2016 7:38pm Jun 29, 2016 7:38pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Maybe he wants someone else's opinion
Maybe. Hopefully. He could have added some value though. E.g. "hey guys, I saw Geppy's bearish... I'm thinking this because of this. What's everyone else's thoughts?".

I'm really into being a value-add contributor. I know that's strange around here, but this place sure would be a whole lot better if others were too.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #10,289
  • Jun 30, 2016 1:28am Jun 30, 2016 1:28am
Quoting gfscapital
My Trading plan Looking at COT data, Speculators have been net long in CAD futures for a while. The gap is now slowly closing and they are almost at par. They hold 40K longs vs 38K short positions. If this trend continues, we could see specs turning bearish once again. USDCAD seems to bottom out at 1.24 and has been trending up ever since. Daily price action made higher high and retracement towards 1.2630. This would suggest, the downtrend might be completed. Currently USDCAD is approaching a major resistance at 1.31 area. This level was responsive...
I like it
  • #10,290
  • Jun 30, 2016 9:13am Jun 30, 2016 9:13am
I am looking at the four-hour time frame and I am questioning whether that was the end of the move to the downside. The pair reached 1.2830, formed a doji and a hammer candlestick above the support there and is now moving up again. I expected a bigger drop.
  • #10,291
  • Jun 30, 2016 9:18pm Jun 30, 2016 9:18pm
This is what I see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 122 KB
Take what the market gives you.
  • #10,292
  • Jul 1, 2016 7:50am Jul 1, 2016 7:50am
Minor bounce...?
Peace Yo!
  • #10,293
  • Jul 1, 2016 9:23am Jul 1, 2016 9:23am
That wasn't the end of the move the downside, thankfully, because the pair found resistance at 1.3015, which is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour time frame and started falling again. For the moment it's testing the support at 1.2880 and I think that if it breaks below that level next target will be 1.2700.
  • #10,294
  • Jul 5, 2016 12:32am Jul 5, 2016 12:32am
The USDCAD breaks below the 1.2900 level. Next support could be the 1.2655 level.
  • #10,295
  • Jul 5, 2016 7:04am Jul 5, 2016 7:04am
I admit I wasn't expecting this move to the upside today, nor did I see any signals for it before it started. The only indication was that it was struggling to break below 1.2850. Now the question is how much higher it will climb.The first target is 1.3000, I think.
  • #10,296
  • Jul 5, 2016 7:14am Jul 5, 2016 7:14am
Quoting dianajs
I admit I wasn't expecting this move to the upside today, nor did I see any signals for it before it started. The only indication was that it was struggling to break below 1.2850. Now the question is how much higher it will climb.The first target is 1.3000, I think.
I'm using this rally as an opportunity to add to my core short position. I'm a longer-term trader though, and following the daily downtrend. Overall, I think we head lower.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #10,297
  • Jul 6, 2016 10:30am Jul 6, 2016 10:30am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I'm using this rally as an opportunity to add to my core short position. I'm a longer-term trader though, and following the daily downtrend. Overall, I think we head lower.
I prefer short-term positions as well. I have a long position at the moment, considering that the pair has formed a new high above 1.3050 and I think the next target will be 1.3080 - 1.3090.
  • #10,298
  • Jul 6, 2016 1:43pm Jul 6, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I'm using this rally as an opportunity to add to my core short position. I'm a longer-term trader though, and following the daily downtrend. Overall, I think we head lower.
And I am expecting a turn to the upside over the next few months. I THINK that trend will be starting shortly. Rarely do I disagree with you Geppy, I am just seeing bullish signals right now.
  • #10,299
  • Jul 7, 2016 8:35am Jul 7, 2016 8:35am
I am not seeing any long-term signals that it is about to start climbing, to be honest, not even on the weekly or the monthly time frames. Even yesterday's long position, as short-term as it was, was a mistake.
  • #10,300
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:46am Jul 7, 2016 10:46am
Quoting dianajs
I am not seeing any long-term signals that it is about to start climbing, to be honest, not even on the weekly or the monthly time frames. Even yesterday's long position, as short-term as it was, was a mistake.
Well what I see is PA being squeezed across the daily through monthly time frames. I am still not certain of it, but I'll watch and see what the wedge on the daily does before I make a decision. on the 4 hour and daily, the 20 sma consistently has been rejecting the 8ema crossover. On the weekly we are seeing the same thing, but in the opposite direction. Then on the monthly we are seeing yet again the same as the 4hr and daily along with divergence on the Stochastic and another indicator I have specifically for divergence/hidden divergence. It looks to me like a coiled spring, but not sure just yet if floor or ceiling lets go, but suspecting ceiling. That said, waiting for the wedge to tell the tales beginning.
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