Thoughts on "smart traders"
What is new will trade after Breksit.
Brexit place, you could already read tons of analysts about the future, as a rule, "gloomy." We will not be repeated and we will talk about the prospects of trade on the news that we opened the UK, and they are also a lot of ... For breakfast there Brexit look better than "Black Wednesday" 92-th ...
Briefly about Brexit
Results of the referendum "for" yield of 51.9%
Cameron, the Prime Minister leaves office in October, on its own initiative.
GBPUSD dropped to 10%.
London stock market fell 8%.
FTSE 100 fell more than 500 points.
The cost of shares of the largest British bank Barclays fell 30%.
Fitch and Moody's believe: the referendum results are negative for all sectors of the British economy.
There were interventions by the Swiss Bank to weaken the franc.
Post factum
Some Britons are concerned about the lack of a clear advantage for such a serious decision and a petition for a second referendum gained more than 800 thousand signatures.:
In the meantime, we have written and placed the screen, signed the petition already 1.5 million. Man.
This number of votes, according to the legislation, requires a response not only to government but also parliament, as the threshold of 10 thousand. And 100 thousand. The voice was instantly overcome. An interesting fact is that the majority of MPs want to see Britain in the EU. Results of the "reverse" will not be able to return, but to find loopholes that could significantly alleviate the process is quite capable.
June 28 will hold an extraordinary EU summit regarding the results of the referendum.
Moody's lowered the credit rating of the UK from "stable" to "negative", while the level of Aa1 remained unchanged.
Who else can get out of the EU as well as the press says about the domino effect: the Netherlands, France, Finland - the first candidates. We can remember about Spain, Italy, the list goes on.
Recall that a similar referendum was held last year in Greece, the vote also confirmed Grexit, but the government has ignored this fact.
The ECB suggests the presence of "hundreds of millions of euros to cover the lack of liquidity." Yes, in principle all the key banks prepared to increase liquidity injections. In turn Lagarde (IMF) said the ECB and the Bank of England's readiness to support the banking system.
The consequences for the foundation.
In Moody's said that Brexit reduce US GDP by 0.1%.
The probability of increasing the interest rate the Fed significantly reduced: 0% in July, 25% in December. It is worth noting such subtlety - Janet Yellen on Tuesday, June 21 was very careful in his speech before Congress, which gives reason to believe - after Brexit Fed altogether may refuse further rate hikes this year.
The probability of reducing Australia's interest rate is 50%.
The Bank of England will probably go on and should further softening of the economy: lower rates, the increase in the money supply.
Political News will dazzle as begins the long process of negotiations of the EU-Britain, which likely will start only after replacing Cameron (in October, he was out of work). EU zone will be under constant pressure of political and economic uncertainty in the next couple of months.
The Swiss bank will continue to intervene in the currency market.
UK labor market will fall. Key global banks have already announced a smooth transfer of the headquarters to other European countries (talking about J.P.Morgan, HSBC, Deutsche Bank)
Scotland said that their destiny is tied up with the EU for which they voted (62% of the stay in the EU) - threaten to prepare a new referendum on the exit from the UK. With the same mood stays and Northern Ireland.
What does it mean to be a news Brexit trade.
Followed by reaction of the central banks, which opens up additional prospects - to trade on the news actively connect two indicators: the interest rate and quantitative easing program.
Prospects for growth in trading activity for:
- UK Official Bank Rate (the interest rate is expected to drop from the current 0.5%)
- UK Asset Purchase Facility (extension of the incentive program is projected to 375mlrd to 450 or more)
- UK PMI Indicators (Manufacturing, Construction, Services) - interest in these surveys and indices will return, as it will reflect the direct business and industrial sentiment, which against Brexit probably be reduced.
- UK Claimant Count Change will be back, interest is growing against the background of predictions of folding jobs by the third party / foreign companies, primarily the banking / investment sector.
- Of course, interest is the indicator of GDP in Britain
- EU Minimum Bid Rate (as well as the deposit and lending rates) is planned to decline
- AU Cash Rate - pressure on the interest rate cut.
- AU CPI - a quarterly rate of inflation sharply perceived as a factor of pressure on the interest rate
- The same situation is with New Zealand - its rate, and its index of consumer price index.
- No cost and no decision on monetary policy by the Bank of Canada.
- NFP from the US will be more aggressive
- Very interesting retail sales and GDP of the United States
The beauty lies in the fact that the markets are released from the vicious circle of under the slogan "Do FOMC rate of increase" in a much broader space for action.
The next round of races will begin in July.
It will probably be "just the dust settles," next week. Scattered brains will be collected in a heap. It will be a series of meetings, consultations including the EU summit.
His place of speculation and there is a petition for review of the results of the referendum, but as Cameron, count already resigned, is not "the leader of the left," her fate is uncertain.
Week camp transshipment. It is necessary to look further to the liquidity and volatility.
Drive will come back on Friday, with the advent of July 1 - Manufacturing PMI data will come from Britain and the United States, and there already and to nonfarmov hand.
July will be no less "hot" to all other connected quarterly reports for the second, respectively, in 2016 quarter.
The Breksit different from Black Wednesday?
On the eve of Brexit, Soros warned that the output of the UK from the EU can turn into big losses for the pound than 92 in the second year of "Black Wednesday". Investors seem well earned, as last time, and in this one.
BREXIT
Black Wednesday, 09/16/1992 (clickable, from Wikipedia)
What is new will trade after Breksit.
Brexit place, you could already read tons of analysts about the future, as a rule, "gloomy." We will not be repeated and we will talk about the prospects of trade on the news that we opened the UK, and they are also a lot of ... For breakfast there Brexit look better than "Black Wednesday" 92-th ...
Briefly about Brexit
Results of the referendum "for" yield of 51.9%
Cameron, the Prime Minister leaves office in October, on its own initiative.
GBPUSD dropped to 10%.
London stock market fell 8%.
FTSE 100 fell more than 500 points.
The cost of shares of the largest British bank Barclays fell 30%.
Fitch and Moody's believe: the referendum results are negative for all sectors of the British economy.
There were interventions by the Swiss Bank to weaken the franc.
Post factum
Some Britons are concerned about the lack of a clear advantage for such a serious decision and a petition for a second referendum gained more than 800 thousand signatures.:
In the meantime, we have written and placed the screen, signed the petition already 1.5 million. Man.
This number of votes, according to the legislation, requires a response not only to government but also parliament, as the threshold of 10 thousand. And 100 thousand. The voice was instantly overcome. An interesting fact is that the majority of MPs want to see Britain in the EU. Results of the "reverse" will not be able to return, but to find loopholes that could significantly alleviate the process is quite capable.
June 28 will hold an extraordinary EU summit regarding the results of the referendum.
Moody's lowered the credit rating of the UK from "stable" to "negative", while the level of Aa1 remained unchanged.
Who else can get out of the EU as well as the press says about the domino effect: the Netherlands, France, Finland - the first candidates. We can remember about Spain, Italy, the list goes on.
Recall that a similar referendum was held last year in Greece, the vote also confirmed Grexit, but the government has ignored this fact.
The ECB suggests the presence of "hundreds of millions of euros to cover the lack of liquidity." Yes, in principle all the key banks prepared to increase liquidity injections. In turn Lagarde (IMF) said the ECB and the Bank of England's readiness to support the banking system.
The consequences for the foundation.
In Moody's said that Brexit reduce US GDP by 0.1%.
The probability of increasing the interest rate the Fed significantly reduced: 0% in July, 25% in December. It is worth noting such subtlety - Janet Yellen on Tuesday, June 21 was very careful in his speech before Congress, which gives reason to believe - after Brexit Fed altogether may refuse further rate hikes this year.
The probability of reducing Australia's interest rate is 50%.
The Bank of England will probably go on and should further softening of the economy: lower rates, the increase in the money supply.
Political News will dazzle as begins the long process of negotiations of the EU-Britain, which likely will start only after replacing Cameron (in October, he was out of work). EU zone will be under constant pressure of political and economic uncertainty in the next couple of months.
The Swiss bank will continue to intervene in the currency market.
UK labor market will fall. Key global banks have already announced a smooth transfer of the headquarters to other European countries (talking about J.P.Morgan, HSBC, Deutsche Bank)
Scotland said that their destiny is tied up with the EU for which they voted (62% of the stay in the EU) - threaten to prepare a new referendum on the exit from the UK. With the same mood stays and Northern Ireland.
What does it mean to be a news Brexit trade.
Followed by reaction of the central banks, which opens up additional prospects - to trade on the news actively connect two indicators: the interest rate and quantitative easing program.
Prospects for growth in trading activity for:
- UK Official Bank Rate (the interest rate is expected to drop from the current 0.5%)
- UK Asset Purchase Facility (extension of the incentive program is projected to 375mlrd to 450 or more)
- UK PMI Indicators (Manufacturing, Construction, Services) - interest in these surveys and indices will return, as it will reflect the direct business and industrial sentiment, which against Brexit probably be reduced.
- UK Claimant Count Change will be back, interest is growing against the background of predictions of folding jobs by the third party / foreign companies, primarily the banking / investment sector.
- Of course, interest is the indicator of GDP in Britain
- EU Minimum Bid Rate (as well as the deposit and lending rates) is planned to decline
- AU Cash Rate - pressure on the interest rate cut.
- AU CPI - a quarterly rate of inflation sharply perceived as a factor of pressure on the interest rate
- The same situation is with New Zealand - its rate, and its index of consumer price index.
- No cost and no decision on monetary policy by the Bank of Canada.
- NFP from the US will be more aggressive
- Very interesting retail sales and GDP of the United States
The beauty lies in the fact that the markets are released from the vicious circle of under the slogan "Do FOMC rate of increase" in a much broader space for action.
The next round of races will begin in July.
It will probably be "just the dust settles," next week. Scattered brains will be collected in a heap. It will be a series of meetings, consultations including the EU summit.
His place of speculation and there is a petition for review of the results of the referendum, but as Cameron, count already resigned, is not "the leader of the left," her fate is uncertain.
Week camp transshipment. It is necessary to look further to the liquidity and volatility.
Drive will come back on Friday, with the advent of July 1 - Manufacturing PMI data will come from Britain and the United States, and there already and to nonfarmov hand.
July will be no less "hot" to all other connected quarterly reports for the second, respectively, in 2016 quarter.
The Breksit different from Black Wednesday?
On the eve of Brexit, Soros warned that the output of the UK from the EU can turn into big losses for the pound than 92 in the second year of "Black Wednesday". Investors seem well earned, as last time, and in this one.
BREXIT
Black Wednesday, 09/16/1992 (clickable, from Wikipedia)
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
