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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,621
  • Jun 29, 2016 9:24pm Jun 29, 2016 9:24pm
And so it begins the lashing for my ignorance. I am lucky to be ranked #1. So lucky. I suck at this. I can't find concrete answers to my trading. I deserve the lashing. I am so biased Eu and Gu short so my plan is now to trade from the inside out and at extremes.

The last part is where I suck in my trading, I lack the ability to trade my plan. Yes, gun shy now.
Quoting sisse.
I just asked 1 simple question and you made a Royal mess with a collage of concepts and TA in between.

After 14 live iterations in which you pretty much are kicking ass in the contest and you still refuse to break free from your mental trading constrains to make it yours for your trading plan!!!

For the 100 million times and until you keep asking and refusing to break from your intraday trading paradigms:

 

  1. Stop focusing on the TA details before you get the proper picture clear and define both in direction and expectations.
  2. You have move from trigger happy to trigger shy in the last 12 weeks. Your last few posts you always seem to be waiting for something to decide....
  3. ...and what is worst you have become a green / red candle, close above/below, etc trader ....you are sabotaging yourself if you do that for long


To wrap up this part. If you trade expectations, and you outlook is telling you that the Euro is going to the moon in 2 weeks ..WELL TRADE the damn long side (or vicevesa). Let me tell you the best and one of the first hints i gave you:

If you are right in the direction (expectations) you can toss a coin, trade a lagging MA or a crossover oscillator or randomly ask a friend to guess a number in the range and use it as entry !!!!!.... If you are right in expectations and still average in defining on time direction you are going to have a winner ...period.

The longer you refuse to dig deeper and understand why I am 'forcing' to make a decision in very strict ranges but with proper and real R:R, the sooner you will get something valauable from these iterations....

sisse
DAX USD Rates

  • #141,622
  • Jun 30, 2016 2:43am Jun 30, 2016 2:43am
Shoud have buy/limit. I see it know.
  • #141,623
  • Jun 30, 2016 3:35am Jun 30, 2016 3:35am
Quoting ptoftangency
Shoud have buy/limit. I see it know.
Any specific reason why?
  • #141,624
  • Jun 30, 2016 7:10am Jun 30, 2016 7:10am
Quoting ptoftangency
Shoud have buy/limit. I see it know.
E/U doesnt go in a vertical line. I Share Chester123,s view a few posts ago 100% and use the retracement to average down. My mid term outlook is strong sell. Thank you very much to Sisse, Chester123 and Imarich for sharing so much with us others. I learn a lot ( Also from other contributors here )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #141,625
  • Jun 30, 2016 7:18am Jun 30, 2016 7:18am
As expected, things calmed down a notch from the talking heads as they retuned to their countries and the angry speeches soften a lot. A very short term 'ceasefire' unofficially signed in the EU until the Tories select the new Prime Minister.

While on the economic front (the one that is important for the mid term moves) business keep slowly activating contingencies plans and preparing to pull out with the latest coming from Singapore and all main financial services from Asia putting a hard stop from next Quarter on any Real Estate investments in the UK.

Nothing really new on that front so we are in Key technical moves to settle the deal for the summer and beyond.

On European Equities, decent profit taking seen from super smart money that fade the knee jerk reaction and we have a clean sheet for this key Q/M/W close. Expecting NY to start entering in the equation after nearly a week in the backseat of European jitters.

On the currency board, all cards are on the table so there is not much to do but trade for those not already in.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,626
  • Edited 8:56am Jun 30, 2016 7:57am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting sisse
As expected, things calmed down a notch from the talking heads as they retuned to their countries and the angry speeches soften a lot. A very short term 'ceasefire' unofficially signed in the EU until the Tories select the new Prime Minister. While on the economic front (the one that is important for the mid term moves) business keep slowly activating contingencies plans and preparing to pull out with the latest coming from Singapore and all main financial services from Asia putting a hard stop from next Quarter on any Real Estate investments in...
And I did today - mid term. well see how it goes and what happens in between. I was trigger shy as I felt stupid not to enter during those cheap seats in the extreme of the mid term range (yellowgreen rectangle I showed). However, I guess thats just stupid frustration as the trade is still strongly rational from FA and R:R ratio.
  • #141,627
  • Edited 8:34am Jun 30, 2016 8:23am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting hoom
... e inline and concerning targets... simple words , it's much safer to fade/sell into rallies to the specific upside levels in the long run without zooming in too much i.e. irrelevant timeframes for such trade.
Great!!!.

Despite if you are long/short or neutral and what is your actual trigger, that is exactly the point of these chats.

sisse

Quoting chester123
{quote} Ok so to answer..... I trade expectations.... P.S.: I dont take into account USD side which is unclear to me now.... mid term neutral USD side?? {image}
Excellent post too. What can I say. It sounds like you have a clear path, map and trading plan and more importantly is made from your and only your perspective...

-> Yes the Dollar side suffered collateral damage with Brexit because it killed FED hikes.

For now there is no chance of July hikes but we need to keep a close eye in the upcoming numbers (a 3er poor NFP and the 'sky' will fall and Rates will be killed for 2016) while a better numbers with the risk front stabilising (as is expected) from short term political panic from Europe will leave us in +/- same hikes Q3/Q4 2016 until further data....

Quoting chester123
{quote} ....I felt stupid not to enter during those cheap seats in the extreme of the mid term range ...
About this comment and the other related to this in your previous post:

 

  1. First, don't forge't that you are using this chart for direction and you will have no less than 10 or more short term swings in between to trade if things pan out
  2. You are making a mistake thinking that you can only trade the extremes. You are implying that pretty much if you don't get the ultimate top of the macro swing your are out... thats not true at all !!!!
  3. I don't have to tell you this but you know that markets don't trade in straight lines and what you want to do is squeeze the ebb and flow inside of that mid term swing and if you are in mid term areas load if possible to ride the macro swing.

Let me finish with one question just to put things in context:

--> According to your chart (nice one btw) what is the ultimate top of the range in the green box and the ultimate bottom in the yellow box? How many ticks is that range?

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,628
  • Jun 30, 2016 8:39am Jun 30, 2016 8:39am
Quoting chester123
{quote} And I did today - mid term. well see how it goes and what happens in between. I was trigger shy as I felt stupid not to enter during those cheap seats in the extreme of the mid term range (yellow rectangle I showed). However, I guess thats just stupid frustration as the trade is still strongly rational from FA and R:R ratio.
Good reading. But I think you mean the green rectangle? The yellow is near your final target The green one is near the top of the range.
  • #141,629
  • Edited 9:11am Jun 30, 2016 8:55am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting eborn
{quote} Good reading. But I think you mean the green rectangle? The yellow is near your final target The green one is near the top of the range.
yes, yes, of course. thank you Im also a bit color blind but I can see this one
  • #141,630
  • Jun 30, 2016 9:11am Jun 30, 2016 9:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Great!!!. Despite if you are long/short or neutral and what is your actual trigger, that is exactly the point of these chats. sisse {quote} Excellent post too. What can I say. It sounds like you have a clear path, map and trading plan and more importantly is made from your and only your perspective... -> Yes the Dollar side suffered collateral damage with Brexit because it killed FED hikes. For now there is no chance of July hikes but we need to keep a close eye in the upcoming numbers (a 3er poor NFP and the 'sky' will fall and Rates will...
Its 17 700 ticks (ehm, if 5th decimal counts as a tick, i never remember ).

haha, and I know where my answer leads =) its so monster range that there is nowhere to rush and all the short terms in between. I completely know that and read it so many times as u remind it once in a while - but this is stuff one would need to have burnt in ones brain! This time I just got obsessed with the idea of riding mid term from the extreme top - you know - having the best seats and just watching - but I see that these things happen very very rare and the real usual trading is done mostly inside the mid term leg - either just riding short term or jumping into mid term with help of short term.

P.S.: thanks for the nice comments on the chart
  • #141,631
  • Jun 30, 2016 9:29am Jun 30, 2016 9:29am
Love reading this thread! Good stuff.
  • #141,632
  • Jun 30, 2016 10:22am Jun 30, 2016 10:22am
BOE with a strong reminder to those with 'short term memory' and only focusing in the politics of it. What is really in play for markets with Brexit is ECONOMICS, markets and free trade.

Very gloomy outlook via uncertainty but realistic picture from Carney. Sterling on the move as it was expected receiving the blow. Eyes on first test of the very feeble lows as a break will trigger a copy/paste but softer panic reaction on the currency board as last week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,633
  • Jun 30, 2016 10:44am Jun 30, 2016 10:44am
...and thats was pretty much it for the first round of closes in Europe.

BOE pretty much guaranteeing a bazooka in the making for the summer (as there is no other option to avoid a sinking ship before negotiations starts) with deep rates cuts in play and extended and aggressive QE (thank god the BOE seems to be the only pubic institution in the UK with an actual PLAN after Brexit).

RMT triggered in Sterling. Strong and vocal ECB expected any minute in the upcoming sessions. Dollar will take the blow as collateral with the breaks on FED hikes and acceleration via panic from Europe for the ebb and flow.

No changes in outlook but reconfirming:

-> Short, Mid and Long term outlook in Sterling in Aggressive sell.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,634
  • Jun 30, 2016 11:00am Jun 30, 2016 11:00am
Second update from the Q close and Brexit with BOE guarantee another round of free money for the banks and co.

--> Changing short term outlook in UK and European equities from sell to neutral until further info from the political side and talking heads as we now may have an avalanche of free money in the short term protecting the lows.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,635
  • Jun 30, 2016 11:07am Jun 30, 2016 11:07am
Quoting sisse
Hyperactive markets continue for 4 day in a row. 'Roll' in play today, this time for GU, GJ and EG....and we
...and I will take that, for those in the Sterling triple play. Clearing double first target in the test of lows in GU 1.323x and GJ136.1x, and clearing all in EG (0.836x)as after BOE announcement we are going for chop zone until ECB announces something new.

There is air and panic below in Sterling but as always no break, no shake, no nothing so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,636
  • Jun 30, 2016 11:20am Jun 30, 2016 11:20am
I'm curious how long US equities will hold the current levels. I guess FED hikes are out of the picture for the time being. As sisse mentioned, lower Sterling should have a (short term) positive effect, but lower USD should have a negative effect...
Adding to that, we have the panic card. But with European equities in neutral, shouldn't that also help US equities ride the free money train?
  • #141,637
  • Jun 30, 2016 12:52pm Jun 30, 2016 12:52pm
Hmm, interesting to see how E/U rolls towards the super important 1,097x. Hope bears can make it for the M/Q close As for now it still seems too far away.
  • #141,638
  • Jun 30, 2016 1:02pm Jun 30, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting eborn
I'm curious how long US equities will hold the current levels. I guess FED hikes are out of the picture for the time being. As sisse mentioned, lower Sterling should have a (short term) positive effect, but lower USD should have a negative effect... Adding to that, we have the panic card. But with European equities in neutral, shouldn't that also help US equities ride the free money train?
Like always with free money, you ride the pig first ask the question later.... Now sadly after the fact, smart bastards knew it and play it flawlessly the BOE, ECB and CB combo after Brexit. Ride free money short term, mid term worries will play out later when politics is out of the way ....

Whatever the case, for the next round of closes with Energies and commodities.

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from sell to Neutral and more importantly clearing manually all remaining positions in CAD after latest developments. We are set to form a cluster fck in the short term with strong forces clashing in opposite directions.

--> Now is also clear why GOLD was so timid during the knee jerk reaction on Brexit and didn't break up with force.... Changing short term outlook in GOLD from aggressive buy to soft/choppy buy.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,639
  • Jun 30, 2016 1:18pm Jun 30, 2016 1:18pm
Watch-out Sterling as not even the BOE is sitting in the lows in the short term...last chance right now for the Q/M close, GU losing the floor unlocks a fresh WTF moment in the currency board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,640
  • Edited 1:30pm Jun 30, 2016 1:18pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Like always with free money, you ride the pig first ask the question later.... Now sadly after the fact, smart bastards knew it and play it flawlessly the BOE, ECB and CB combo after Brexit. Ride free money short term, mid term worries will play out later when politics is out of the way .... Whatever the case, for the next round of closes with Energies and commodities. --> Changing short term outlook in OIL from sell to Neutral and more importantly clearing manually all remaining positions in CAD after latest developments. We are set to...
you cant lose buying equities it seems. I was playing and aiming for US equities to go to 1940-1960, but instead it ripped it my face. What is also clear is that they are not able to go higher past 2130 without a little more easing from the Fed, so we have been stuck in this chop zone, which just proves that S&P500 and the Fed's balance sheet has a correlation of 1.

Ftse100 completing a magic roundabout to the highs. Although what is clear is that sterling decline is here to stay as most real/big money has probably not even started selling it yet!!
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