The Really Useless Thread | Page 7063 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,241
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:15am Jun 23, 2016 6:15am
Hey Brits - its our chance today.

Inserted Video
  • #141,242
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:49am Jun 23, 2016 6:49am
  • #141,243
  • Jun 23, 2016 7:11am Jun 23, 2016 7:11am
Here is my plan for today (EUR/USD), feel free to contribute if you want.

STAY IN:

ED goes up to ~1.148xx or maybe to ~1.16xx with H1 and H4 overshooting this price levels but later finding resistance at this levels, this is where I will probably short it. Not really looking for longs today, except if a can catch it at a good price.

LEAVE:

Not sure about this one, but would say a very bearish outlook for ED in next few days, in this scenario I will probably try to short it with small positions if it doesn't fall like a knife.


Stay safe!
  • #141,244
  • Edited 7:33am Jun 23, 2016 7:20am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting Sa7an
Hey Brits - its our chance today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSIUf2hD6Io
je je je mate....

As long as the alternative is only emotional and not with a proper plan and based in technical arguments other than purely nationalistic ones the only thing that will change is replacing the B of Bugger Brussels for the B of Bugger Boris and the F of Fck France for the F of Fck Farrange .....

...real change come with proper plans proposals not from wishful thinking and swapping from nothing new to nothing new but isolated ....

Let's see how it goes today....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,245
  • Jun 23, 2016 7:38am Jun 23, 2016 7:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je je mate.... As long as the alternative is only emotional and not with a proper plan and based in technical arguments other than purely nationalistic ones the only thing that will change is replacing the B of Bugger Brussels for the B of Bugger Boris and the F of Fck France for the F of Fck Farrange ..... ...real change come with proper plans proposals not from wishful thinking and swapping from nothing new to nothing new but isolated .... Let's see how it goes today.... sisse
Yeah I really struggled with this referendum debate.

My heart said leave and my head said stay.

What finally swung it was when they assassinated Joe Cox and blamed it on Brexit.

I also wanna get rid of Dodgy Dave. Brits always had a masochistic streak lol.
  • #141,246
  • Edited 8:16am Jun 23, 2016 7:58am | Edited 8:16am
Exactly 1/2 way in the year with the only scheduled risk event of the year in play today.

A good time to check yearly outlooks and expectations from the post on the last day of 2015. Only Euro flopped [delayed?] from expectations in between via the carry trade since the end of Q1 but on the rest a very solid in synch with mid term expectations for the first 2 Quarters ....

Quoting sisse
Scenarios and Macro Expectations 2016

+++++ Yearly review / overview +++++

(update 1)


--> Dollar ... the king

The first 2 Quarters are set for dollar to rule markets far beyond the FX board...With a couple of hikes by June/July [still marginally in play but definitively not 2 hikes by July]...

...The first macro move for Q1/Q2 will definitively come from DOLLAR [super check]and it will create the best and smoother trading opportunities in currencies (EUR/USD especially)[FLOP.. ECB cut further rates and more QE triggering the carry trade that make things neutral for most of the year] ] while the second will come from the exhaustion/capitulation move in OIL and commodities in general [super check].

---> OIL & commodities...."winter has come"

GOLD look especially 'al dente' for a final leg down (Reference 970.xx via FED rates) in Q1/Q2 to form a mid/long term bottom[super check]...

Oil will keep leading ... Either OPEC and OIL emerging economies will descend to chaos, or major earthquake panic leg (reference $26.xx) [super check ....scarily to the tick !!!]will force OPEC to take action...

Whatever the case, Oil and commodities look set to stay on the driver seat pushing for one more extensive leg inQ1/Q2 before forming a very long long long and choppy bottom ...[in play]...

---> Europe Economy and European Equities...."Europe is coming back"

....I am expecting the second part of the year late Q3/Q4 to be a radically differentplaying field. I expect Europe Economy to start picking up with strength (strength for European standard of course) at the end of 2016 [in play ...and today is key for this to work out]

ECB QE and negative rates will keep DAX, CAC and EZ equities in bid the first half of the year [check] but the money in my view will come in Q3/Q4 where I expect Europe to take control and start marching up with strength while the US plays politics until elections.

---> US equites ...."End of Obama's happy years"

US equites are set for a rather dull and wide range year [check]. In the first half, FED normalising will keep bulls at bay while the usual election calm will avoid US equites going anywhere outside the range.

The only wild card marketwise that can create a short term short-circuit will be if Americans decide to vote for Trump.....[not in play yet]

---> GBP ...".the beginning of the end in the old empire"

For the first time in nearly 6 years Sterling may leave the super noisy chop zone and become one of the best trading opportunities.... Among major currencies this is the only pair with Long Term levels in play for the yearly close.

We are set to lose the 1.53xx handle [super check] for the year on today's close unlocking the mid term leg to 1.436x [super check] with extension 1.380x [super check ...scarily to the tick] and more importantly and impressive the long term to 1.210x [marginally in play...today will settle this part]with extension to parity (YES PARITY....) and strong intermediate stop 1.052x.

There is only BOE hikes in play for Q2/Q3 but failure to hike with the massive self-inflicted uncertainty of the EU referendum next summer could mark the start of the end of Sterling as major currency in World markets. [in play]

Time to bring back Sterling on the trading workspace ...

---> EURO ... "may the force be with the Euro'

As long as ECB and FED are in full control and monetary policies are diverging there is no much to see, neither where to hide for the EURO. The Greek drama seems to be over for next year, and without risk in play, with the periphery recovering and with european equities more tempting than ever, the Euro is really a no brainer [in play ...today is key for the rest of the year]

---> JPY...."A long term bottom confirmed"

...Expecting BOJ to start softening down late Q2 and yen start to fade down below 120.xx [super check] for a sharp momentum leg toward 100.xx ['crumbs' away ...today is key to complete the move] that will leave us chopping around till the end 2016.

Same as GBP time to bring back YEN to the trading table.

---> AUD, CAD , NZD & commodities currencies ..."they will need a hand from OIL and risk to avoid a massacre early in the year"

Gold forming a bottom Q1/Q2 [check] will trigger a good early alerts for all commodities currencies. For the end of year (late Q3), I am expecting trading opportunities to shift from the pairs/usd to the crosses in these commodities currencies (especially AUD/JPY that looks super yummy to complete the mid and long term legs) [check ...today is key via a mid term bottom in commodities] .

-->CHF ..."fear of the walking dead..."

CHF is a walking dead and is set to be worst currency for trading next year....[check]

.....

Expecting risk to be back on the table and 2016 [check] will complete the economic cycle marking the full recovery of the major west economies [in play ...today is key for the mid and long term in Europe] and the end of the 'happy years' emerging countries [check] enjoyed during the financial crisis ...

+++++ The END +++++

------ -------


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,247
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:00am Jun 23, 2016 8:00am
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je je mate.... As long as the alternative is only emotional and not with a proper plan and based in technical arguments other than purely nationalistic ones the only thing that will change is replacing the B of Bugger Brussels for the B of Bugger Boris and the F of Fck France for the F of Fck Farrange ..... ...real change come with proper plans proposals not from wishful thinking and swapping from nothing new to nothing new but isolated .... Let's see how it goes today.... sisse

PVSRA
  • #141,248
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:43am Jun 23, 2016 8:43am
Quoting sisse
We are set to lose the 1.53xx handle [super check] for the year on today's close unlocking the mid term leg to 1.436x [super check] with extension 1.380x [super check ...scarily to the tick]
Super impressive!!

Just one question how did you determine the 1.380x level? you always post these levels and extensions but I can't understand how you determine them, is there a formula? fib? past history level that you use?
  • #141,249
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:50am Jun 23, 2016 8:50am
Quoting sisse
Exactly 1/2 way in the year with the only scheduled risk event of the year in play today. A good time to check yearly outlooks and expectations from the post on the last day of 2015. Only Euro flopped [delayed?] from expectations in between via the carry trade since the end of Q1 but on the rest a very solid in synch with mid term expectations for the first 2 Quarters .... {quote} +++++ Yearly review / overview +++++ (update 1) --> Dollar ... the king The first 2 Quarters are set for dollar to rule markets far beyond the FX board...With a couple...
Sisse,
Love your posts - don't always agree with you but they always make me q my bias.

Someone else I also respect is AEP and he thinks Brexit won't be so bad for UK - could be much worse for EU.

It is to suggest that the EU is a prison, and if that were the case the project could not possibly have any future.

There are certainly grave threats to the world economy, but none have anything to do with Brexit.
We are seven years into this global cycle and signs of ageing are too obvious to ignore, not least the collapse in US bond yields to depression levels.More economic Signs Point to a US Recession", The labour market has buckled. Car sales have slipped. Business investment and profits are both falling.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...ey-botch-brex/
  • #141,250
  • Edited 11:08am Jun 23, 2016 9:50am | Edited 11:08am
sisse,

Thanks for the nice comments. And, I knew the answer to my question about GU being so HIGH or testing the WEEKLY Highs as EXPECTATIONS are the driver; but, I am not sure why one would want to be in a trade at these levels due to the actual OUTLOOK in GU aside from a BREMAIN and especially a BREXIT. Perhaps, soft hands drove it past EXHAUSTION area .147XX but I see smart money seeing this area as Exhaustion (BREMAIN price in) as this was a 1000 pip move in about 6 days from 1.400X.

Thanks for your superb analysis and calls. All I can do is read, re-read and try and absorb your economic intellect. I have no way of getting to this level; but, it is nice you break it down to be more easily digested in a way to understand market conditions.

I have questions and I know now is not the time; but, possibly soon we can go over them as they deal with Short, Mid and Long Term Maps (I asked awhile back in the June 19th or June 20th posts). But, I must ask these 2 questions for now:

-->1. How did you declare on June 20th that the GU closed very bearish when it closed above previous HIGH and was a 373 ticks BULLISH candle? Was it due to it closing a tick below .4700? Or, the fact it didn't power thru the Weekly Highs in this area?

-->2. Why is .467X the Rainmaker? I can not find a single TA reason why (looked on all my HIGHER TF CHARTS) so maybe it is a FA one.

Thanks!
  • #141,251
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:10am Jun 23, 2016 10:10am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} How about U/J? I see a notable bullish correction coming from 103.20's (for 115.xx) or 102.30's (for 116.90). Gold has a decision area in 1258/7 (for HH or 1140's). So I'm assuming this upcoming USD bounce and GOLD bullishness (?) (with GU rejecting 1.4780's) as a positioning for Brexit.
U/J 100.40/30 is another destination point with potential to reverse back above 109.
69
  • #141,252
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:17am Jun 23, 2016 10:17am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} Super impressive!! Just one question how did you determine the 1.380x level? you always post these levels and extensions but I can't understand how you determine them, is there a formula? fib? past history level that you use?
Same question from my side also
Re-Incarnated
  • #141,253
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:26am Jun 23, 2016 10:26am
please don't report in the UK until the voting is over. Thanks, - The Borg
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/23/europe...ing/index.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #141,254
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:11am Jun 23, 2016 11:11am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Same question from my side also
I'm guessing its the flip level for the 2009 lows
  • #141,255
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:27am Jun 23, 2016 11:27am
...and that was it for the day. Europe going home (not really today) with all markets holding. A couple of hours left in the UK vote and its nothing to do anymore but wait.

--> All eyes on the UK for the rest of the day, US and world markets pretty much a bystander today. A rather 'unique' close in Europe as all trading activities in London and Frankfurt will be open overnight until the vote is clear.

--> We are officially in no man's land trading air so any first gossips/leaks from early exit polls after the vote is close can trigger sharp intraday spikes.

A too close to call will leave us in a prolonged limbo that extends until deep in the the Asian session.

While a statistical large margin from any side by 10PM London will pretty much kill the day soon triggering the knee jerk reaction until the European open tomorrow and especially next week.

Not much to do right now but wait like the rest of the financial world so table open for any market talk, questions or ideas ...


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,256
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:41am Jun 23, 2016 11:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ....--> On the actual flows (Euro only).
... TBC ...
=> For the actual flows (Euro only)

All micro levels raised for today as mostly humans will be making decisions in the very very short term.

For those still holding positions long is time to start clearing all as the bid and offer is empty and any small sparkle can take even the most conservative stop. No point in holding any short term positions today.

Simple and clear maps for the flow:

--> Inline with expectations with a clear remain vote winning will pretty much kill all the 'risk' factor from the Euro for the summer unlocking a quick but very short-lived direct reaction 1.135x -> 1.144x with max extension 1.152x all in very thin air.

--> A clear exit vote will trigger risk off at least. Depending on the following hours it can trigger panic across the financial world for a play 1.142x -> 1.108x and if global panic triggers a ext 1.073x with a intermediate but soft stop at 1.091x all in no time ...

GL all trading this one.

I am not interested AT ALL in trading this flow but i am aggressively eyeballing the next one (that will be trigger rather quickly) with a remain vote confirmed and the knee jerk reaction settle....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,257
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:44am Jun 23, 2016 11:44am
Sisse: Trading expectation equals somewhat "buy rumors and sell facts". In this context where Sterling is high or very high, market seems already priced in the remaining expectation and bought it...You see my thought. Is not impossible that we might see as ell of Sterling, am I wrong? This also apply to Gold (down) and Oil (up).
  • #141,258
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:55am Jun 23, 2016 11:55am
sisse,

My 2 questions are above in this page. I will ask my Short, Mid and Long term MAPS questions again later in case others have questions. Thanks again.
  • #141,259
  • Jun 23, 2016 12:04pm Jun 23, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting Fadhl
Sisse: Trading expectation equals somewhat "buy rumors and sell facts".
Not necessarily. Depends on the context.

In very broad terms:

 

  1. if a play might be a GAME changer.


Yes it usually works with "buy the rumour sell the fact" to take profits and kill the initial leg. The fact will trigger the correction against the new confirmed trend.

 

  1. If the play is just normal FA flow


Usually NO. It will just follow the ebb and flow if exceptions are meet or flop (meaning continuation or retrace/pullback in the inner flows)

Quote
In this context where Sterling is high or very high, market seems already priced in the remaining expectation and bought

Sterling is in the middle of a storm with very large flows that goes way beyond the UK economy. Moreover, there is mid and long term KEY levels and factors in play.

Meaning the TREES are very TALL at these time and levels but the FOREST is even larger ...so don't get stuck between the risk bets for staying in , the risk hedges in case of exit and the major forces in play on the background.

What I mean, is that the whole existence of Sterling as global currency is in play with a potential major Recession as early as next year could be in play so not many people are ONLY just buying the rumour and selling the fact.

My advice. Stay OUT of the knee jerk reaction in case of vote remain as there are VERY VERY large hands sitting in this play and they will have to rebalance portfolios in ways that will trigger sharp and very noisy daily ranges...

Quote
it.. This also apply to Gold (down) and Oil (up).

Both are just collateral moves for this play. GOLD will only enter further in play via risk (UK out) while a vote Stay will automatically put us straight back into July hikes mode while OIL we'll be swept down only via panic with the UK triggering recession 2.0 in Europe .... There are not the leading ones for today but they are in the back seat of the flows.....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,260
  • Jun 23, 2016 12:07pm Jun 23, 2016 12:07pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am not interested AT ALL in trading this flow but i am aggressively eyeballing the next one (that will be trigger rather quickly) with a remain vote confirmed and the knee jerk reaction settle.... sisse
As am I

My vote is no July hike without a damn good NFP
10 traders viewing now