The Really Useless Thread

sisse,

Thanks sisse taking so much time to give us this analysis. I re-read it a few times to pick up things I missed. I really enjoy understanding how this all works. I am sure those that VOTE OUT are uneducated about the dynamics of it all. They may be educated but ignorant of the things that matter. I know I am educated but ignorant in the way I was trading and at times still do until I am able to learn and understand. Sometimes its too late!!!

Just wanted to say thanks for giving us your analysis! I know this takes time and again, and amazed you take the time to educate here when you don't truly know us!

One thing I am pondering is why the GU is trading at this level 1.468X near the Weekly Highs 1.47XX with the remote possibility that a BREXIT could happen. I would think Market would take it to FLIP area between the HIGHS and MAJOR SUPPORT at 1.40XX. I know you indicated soft hands with thin market makes it more volatile along with the knee jerk reaction of BREMAIN; but, seems PA is to high here.

My Broker doubled the margin on my GBP short! Not a comfortable position for me to be in either! Concerned if GBP breaks the highs tomorrow. I am hoping a Vote IN is uneventful and the move of IN is already priced in since we trade the expectations and not the FACTS.

=>The 2 potential fundamental implications for the mid and long term from the vote are via:

1. The impact of London triggering a major relocation of flows and losing its status as the largest financial centre in the world, and
2. Europe contagion, triggering the worst from the political spectrum (extreme right and all that) to flourish and start pushing to isolation and protectionism threatening to make the largest and richest trading block in the world crumble into isolated myopic pieces pulling to inward looking policies covered in the name of 'national' interest

These are very tricky point to forecast because the knot is so tightly close and there are so many factors that nobody really knows how bad things can get. There are [and sadly] 2 clear things:

1. one is that HISTORY (and is a long one) is not in Europe side (as every time in nearly 2000yrs one of the major empires/countries start free riding) it only take a soft sparkle to expand across the continent with consequences that usually end up beyond economics.
2. and that Europe will be heading backwards in term of free trade and markets which will have devastating effects in an already comatose, sluggish and old European Economy.

--> In terms of trading, a vote out, once is settle, will leave a HUGE cloud of uncertainty in financial markets and international trade until renegotiations take place. Making the whole outlook in the european export countries market crumble from Holland and the all mighty Denmark to the sluggish and still in heavy downturn countries like Greece and Spain.

Sell Equities and in case of panic by mid 2017, means clear all and run away fast very fast from Europe altogether in Equities and Currencies (Euro, SEK and Sterling) until the bottom is reach but this time all CB in Europe are in heavy negative rates and deflation ...uff don't even think about that scenario as the whole world economy will feel the shock ...

--> While a vote in will leave us set in the launching platform for the first recovery strong rally by Q4 2016 / Q1 2017 that will push commodities especially OIL leave the OPEC jitter once and for all....

--> On the Technical side.

1. Hard to choose where to focus but as we have been discussing I will be this time using the FTSE as benchmark in Equities (and the economy), DOLLAR as the one and only king in case of panic and Sterling as the benchmark for the rest of the FX board.

--> Maps are crystal clear in FTSE 6000.x is the rain maker for the mid and long term and its in play tomorrow.

1. 6400.x is the flip for the play and it unlocks a sharp and fast test 6800.x that will clear all the risk hedged and heavy baggages of Brexit and the UK economy since the beginning of the year before we shift to the BOE for 2017 and beyond.
2. A vote out and lossing 6000.x unlocks the floor and clean sweep with force for a sharp -15% / -20% correction to 4860.x with intermediate stop 5300.x

--> Dollar is tricky because is primarily in play for the short term knee jerk reaction but in case that a vote out trigger panic and global impact a sharp run 94.4x -> 101.6x (fed by the FED too) but such a large impact will force the FED to put the hand break in very dovish (no hikes or max 1 hike this year if that happens) making the Dollar only trading risk. To the other side, there is nothing to see in the mid term as all will be on rates.

--> In Sterling (GU) and for those who has been asking a lot. Maps are complex and harder to read in general as we are in a cluster fuck in the mid and long term that has been slowly cooking for years with Sterling losing its shine as global asset. A vote out, will officially mark the end of the Pound as global currency among other things.

1. 1.467x is the rain maker for tomorrow. A vote in, will unlock a dead cat bounce to 1.50xx with hands clearing the risk hedges in the upcoming days/weeks and rebalancing portfolios but beyond that looks rather far as the FED will enter in play.
2. To the other side, 1.437x is momentum line to unlock a very very very fast test to the low of the year 1.389x. In case, panic is trigger, the multiyear low will be taken and below is pure AIR with nothing in between until 1.21xx as very distant Macroeconomic Fundamental Supports (UK last major recession shift after the deep recession of the 70s) that will be very hard to crack it in many years and will imply UK disintegrating (Scotland out) and Europe in turmoil and heavy protectionism which seems far fetched and too far in time to be relevant ...

--> On the actual flows (Euro only).
... TBC ...

sisse

Thanks for the kind words ....

On the question: How many times in this

=> Markets trade expectations not facts.

What is the expectation? ... the fact will see tomorrow....
In general What happen when expectations heavily mismatch reality? ... a short-circuit that will trigger expansion of volatility as markets are caught in the wrong foot.
What happen if they do match? ...nothing to see, laggers and soft hands will be chasing the crumbs while market will be aligning for the next leg already...

sisse

Watch-out as we have a plethora of polls hitting the wires ....all pointing to a UK remain vote...

Eyes on 1.14xx in the Euro and 1.48xx in GU...

sisse

EURUSD Long Trade:
So far so good. The TP is partial of course. SL is fix.

well, I don't even think I'll bother voting, if the Bremainers already have it sewed up, Dangit!...the Illuminati win again....

There could be a lot of panic involved guys, just check this (trading terminal news)


The thing is: people are very much 50-50 in the UK itself on the matter. This becomes apparent if you check polls, interview people (I've been there a couple of weeks ago for my job - asked around and even this small sample was 50-50), listen to the radio - people are divided. Lots of students and younger people bremain, lots of older people wish to brexit. Check latest:


So if the brexit side wins, there will be panic because ~80% are expecting them to stay. As Sisse repeats over and over again, trade expectations.

Sisse, if you find some time, can you please say something about trading gold in general? What should I be watching mainly, when I would want to trade this instrument?Thank you in advance

Yeah ... have experienced many Referneda in Ireland ..and on the day there's usually been a significant shift away from the "headline happy" media scare of Armageddon to a more balanced & considered "safe" vote on the day ...ie in this case no Brexit but Bremain! ...In trading terms something like "pump & dump" really, where expectations are hyped up only to be dashed later ...that's assuming it's a Bremain of course

Thanks for the great posts.

How about U/J? I see a notable bullish correction coming from 103.20's (for 115.xx) or 102.30's (for 116.90). Gold has a decision area in 1258/7 (for HH or 1140's). So I'm assuming this upcoming USD bounce and GOLD bullishness (?) (with GU rejecting 1.4780's) as a positioning for Brexit.
Pundits say that in Brexit event UJ pair should dive, but I couldnt ever understand how in the ultimate risk-off enviroment USD gets under YEN..?

"Your life, as it has been.....is over. From this time forward....you will service.....US.........Your culture will adapt to service US. Resistance is futile."

Brexit live streaming by RT

...and we have a winner in contest 11. CHAPEAU @ IMARICH1 for the best call of the thread this month so far but still 2 contestant left that may get a homerun later.

If you didn't crack the concepts of outlooks, maps and direction after this one ....nothing will... for the newcomers interested in looking at markets from a different angle and learn a trick or two, check the process until this iteration 11 from IMARICH1 as there is a very valuable lesson with live examples to be learnt in the previous pages

Here tracking very closely until NY open to start clearing positions ...

sisse

++++ Update 5 Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 0 hours 4 days) -> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.1350 [check] | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1* Earlobe(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade) Red Pirate(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade) Decima(close all @ TP1) Vorex(close all @ TP1) chronical(Trail and stopped at @TP2) manosk(Trail and stopped at @TP...[/quote]

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.137x++++

Update 6

Risky Rates (Elapsed Time 0 hours 7 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.115x [check] -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.1350 [check] | TP3 => 1.145x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Earlobe(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade)

Red Pirate(take Tp1 -> reverse -> stopped out -> scratch trade)

Decima(close all @ TP1)

Vorex(close all @ TP1)

chronical(Trail and stopped at @TP2)

manosk(Trail and stopped at @TP2)

chester123 (TP1 1.117x and reversed long )►►(Trail and stopped at @TP2)

Fadhl (Clear all at @TP2)

Pharm0r(Clear all at @TP2)

glassblower

ptoftangency

No touch (for 3 days) [check] TP1| 1.110x or 1.130x [check] and No touch (until noon on UK referendum day) TP2| 1.100x or 1.140x [check] | max r:r => (+) 4:1*

IMARICH1

sisse

EURUSD Long Trade Update:
First TP cleared. Not moving SL yet, becouse even if hit the trade ends up in profits..
68.2 pips average gain on closed EPs so far.

Wrong thread I guess.

...and I will take that in the EURO. Clearing final position from the FED play right on time for the UK vote on the test 1.141x. Well done all that rode the zigzag but more importantly and not because TA or FA reasons but for strictly risk reasons:

--> Changing short term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell ...we'll revaluate when the UK results are cleared

sisse

U/J may go for 106.40 before rejecting, GU - 1.4980