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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #60,501
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:58pm Jun 22, 2016 12:58pm
Quoting Devart
{quote} yeah good, I like ur way to resume the data. So Shall I have this exactly indicator ? Please supply also some explanation about how to use ur indicator and how to set it http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1466353944
Hello Devart,

I have posted my system here :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post8993815

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  • #60,502
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:39pm Jun 22, 2016 4:39pm
Very interesting how Brexit news impacts UJ. When polls indicate "leave" the yen gains value (UJ goes down). Conversely when polls indicate "stay" UJ moves abruptly up. I thought this pair would be somewhat insulated from Brexit volatility. Not sure i understand this movement - Comments?
  • #60,503
  • Jun 22, 2016 5:38pm Jun 22, 2016 5:38pm
Someone correct me if I'm wrong:
London is the largest financial center and Yen is a risk-off currency. When there is fear of instability, like Britain leaving the EU, money flows into risk-off assets.
  • #60,504
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:32pm Jun 22, 2016 6:32pm
Quoting Beerrun
Someone correct me if I'm wrong: London is the largest financial center and Yen is a risk-off currency. When there is fear of instability, like Britain leaving the EU, money flows into risk-off assets.
Yes, you have said the right thing
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  • #60,505
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:59pm Jun 22, 2016 6:59pm
Quoting Beerrun
Someone correct me if I'm wrong: London is the largest financial center and Yen is a risk-off currency. When there is fear of instability, like Britain leaving the EU, money flows into risk-off assets.
That makes sense. It's GBP vs the world, and everyone gets a share of volitility
  • #60,506
  • Jun 22, 2016 7:39pm Jun 22, 2016 7:39pm
Yen is considered safe haven currency.
When there is any global instability, people tends to turn to Yen, hence it rises.
Same with the Brexit scenario.

Only two things can happen with Brexit: Leave or Stay.
BUT...... in my opinion, Yen cannot appreciate too much either way.
If Britain stays, things will settle down gradually, and Yen will devalue; but if Britain leaves, Yen will rise, but not indefinitely, because:

1. Japan's economy cannot tolerate a high value currency.
2. BOJ will try to intervene in one way or another if Yen rises too abruptly.
3. USD has to pick up pace eventually........with a hike in rates expected sometime within the next few months.
4. 100 should be a strong support as a psychological barrier, demand should be high there.

Considering Yen was happily at near 120 only a few months ago before USD started its decline; I think when major global risks settle down and when USD picks up pace again, Yen should be back down to at least 110.
  • #60,507
  • Jun 23, 2016 1:19am Jun 23, 2016 1:19am
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I read many idea about long in USDJPY but global balance is short and all this little growing move I have recommended wait for good point for short. So, Yen did it. Next stop is 101-100. Work with a balance and make the money.
  • #60,508
  • Jun 23, 2016 3:37am Jun 23, 2016 3:37am
Quoting SckT
Yen is considered safe haven currency.
Wrong. Yen is a risk currency.
'Risk-on' everybody borrows Yen and buys Aud/Gold/USD.
'Risk-off' everybody sells their speculative buys and buys Yen (returning borrowed money).

Quote
1. Japan's economy cannot tolerate a high value currency.
Between 2008 and 2013 UJ was below 100

Quote
4. 100 should be a strong support as a psychological barrier
Agree
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  • #60,509
  • Jun 23, 2016 4:32am Jun 23, 2016 4:32am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Wrong. Yen is a risk currency. 'Risk-on' everybody borrows Yen and buys Aud/Gold/USD. 'Risk-off' everybody sells their speculative buys and buys Yen (returning borrowed money). {quote} Between 2008 and 2013 UJ was below 100 {quote} Agree
😊Thanks for your response.What i meant was whenever there is a "risk off" environment, people tend to turn to the buying of yen. In effect, yen becomes a "safe haven" currency. This market response has been repeated many times whenever there was a global risk situation. Hence the term has been attached to this currency.Between 2008 and 2013, the status of the currency depreciation war was different to now. Yen was fine below 100 at that time. But now, if Yen becomes too strong relative to others, the effect on the country's economy will be different especially when the country is so heavily reliant on exports.
  • #60,510
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:49am Jun 23, 2016 9:49am
You were correct. In risk off environment traders buy Yen and sell others. Or in other words a safe haven currency.
  • #60,511
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:11pm Jun 23, 2016 6:11pm
Quoting SunTrader
You were correct. In risk off environment traders buy Yen and sell others. Or in other words a safe haven currency.
  • #60,512
  • Jun 25, 2016 8:49am Jun 25, 2016 8:49am
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/...13-years-late/

If you read this article carefully and analyze his words very carefully you will see that we were given a very important tip at the beginning of June.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced plans to delay a sales tax hike on Wednesday and said that a new fiscal stimulus package would be revealed in the fall.

I reckon this is because they know it will get ugly and do not plan to intervene until after.
  • #60,513
  • Jun 25, 2016 8:52am Jun 25, 2016 8:52am
I read all about it - at the time.
  • #60,514
  • Jun 25, 2016 9:30am Jun 25, 2016 9:30am
Previously Japan said they would intervene at 100 and now they revised it to 95 meaning it should go to 95
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/06/2...ings-in-japan/
  • #60,515
  • Jun 25, 2016 9:57am Jun 25, 2016 9:57am
The brick wall at 102 looks fishy, no way that would happen without stealth intervention. Especially after the spike down to 98
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  • #60,516
  • Jun 25, 2016 10:42am Jun 25, 2016 10:42am
Quoting Citiboy
The brick wall at 102 looks fishy, no way that would happen without stealth intervention. Especially after the spike down to 98
99..Probably first intervention to slow gains
  • #60,517
  • Jun 26, 2016 8:44am Jun 26, 2016 8:44am
will this pair gap down when market opens....
  • #60,518
  • Jun 26, 2016 10:35am Jun 26, 2016 10:35am
I think the down move will continue.
  • #60,519
  • Jun 26, 2016 10:45am Jun 26, 2016 10:45am
Guess the key is when BoJ will intervene. 100 will be a strong support area.
  • #60,520
  • Jun 26, 2016 10:59am Jun 26, 2016 10:59am
Quoting pohchuan
Guess the key is when BoJ will intervene. 100 will be a strong support area.
I do not think that the Bank of Japan is going to intervene anytime sooner and also the effect of such an intervention will be short stayed as we have seen from the previous moves by the BoJ
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