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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #60,461
  • Jun 17, 2016 7:54am Jun 17, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Devart
Good Afternoon guys I wanna share with you my considerations. As we know the cross UsdJpy has lost more than 1000 pips in less than 5 months and due to brexit the FED and BOJ has waiting to see the result of the referendum in order to see how to act. About my consideration I think that if UsdJpy still to go down even if UK exits the cross UsdJpy will crash around 100-00/101.00 due that at this level there is the retracemt of 50.0 % of the movement started in 01/2012 and ended in 06/2015 (well diivided in 5 waves). I support this idea also due to...
You mean a Dollar bull against the YEN after this last YEN surge? Your guess is a surge to 103.5 (possibly 100/101) and then the YEN dropping to 117 before the end of this year?
  • #60,462
  • Jun 17, 2016 8:11am Jun 17, 2016 8:11am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} You mean a Dollar bull against the YEN after this last YEN surge? Your guess is a surge to 103.5 (possibly 100/101) and then the YEN dropping to 117 before the end of this year?
Yes I mean bull dollar and bear yen.
Basically yes. I am quite sure about the absolute minimum around 103.50 or around 100/101, this IN MY OPINION depends mainly on Brexit.
About the target around 117 I am not sure as about the minimum. Mine are only graphic considerations based on the how the cross acts.
About the end of this year I dunno honestly but a TP of 117 is more than possible.
Obviously can happen that some news are destructive. In my opinion we are at 104 now only due to the US's voice of economic calendar related about the new jobs created (I dunno remember the name). I only remember that the value should have been around 170 ?!?and instead was around 35-45.
This was a fist in the ass
  • #60,463
  • Jun 18, 2016 8:28am Jun 18, 2016 8:28am
Good afternoon guys I have done the last study and I am sure about the analysis.
In the picture 1-4 we see the full movement.
In the picture 2-4 the pull back.

If you need explenation I will be happy to give you.

Reached the top around 125 we have had a AB=CD bear pattern and in fact in point D (02/20169) there was bull pull back. This AB=CD pattern also coincides with the flat 3-3-5 correction (WXY). At this point the market tried to come back at the rectracement (23.6% at 114) but also the end point AB=CD/WXY was strong (111) [this point is the 161 % retracement of the wave BC of AB=CD] so we went in a triangle.
We are in april the BOJ doesn't changed the interest rate so the cross dropped to 107.50 (near 38,6% of the big movement that coincide with 220% retracement of the wave BC of AB=CD.
BOJ told that Jpy was too strong --> pull back around 110.50 etc etc, after the results on US's occupational level.

We are now In three dives movement usually seen at the end of a strong movement.

By now not considering unexpected aspects as bomb, or earthquake I think that the market maybe could test the 50.0% retracement at 100-101 most at all if the UK exits from euro otherwise the absolute minimum will be around 103.50 or 103.00 (maybe there will be an other bear impulse)

I do not think that UsdJpy will go lower that 100 because around 107 the BOJ was stressed about the strong of yen and if the 100 is broken the next target will be 95.
For sure not considering the 20-26 june the scenario in my opinion is definitely bull.
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  • #60,464
  • Jun 19, 2016 8:26am Jun 19, 2016 8:26am
Keeping an eye on the potential bullish divergence setup, one or two more up weeks should do it. Can't see this pair crashing through 100 unless something sinister comes out
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  • #60,465
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:35am Jun 19, 2016 11:35am
In hourly full Bearish with Ichimoku V6 system ,the Stop Lost : 104.320

Regards.

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KISS&V :Keep it simple safe & visual
  • #60,466
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:42am Jun 19, 2016 11:42am
Quoting Sohocool
In hourly full Bearish with Ichimoku V6 system ,the Stop Lost : 104.320 Regards. {image}
Hello, where can I download your indicator?
  • #60,467
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:52am Jun 19, 2016 11:52am
At the end of 2015 there was a 6% chance that the YEN would hit 100 and now there is a 48% chance.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-biggest-bank
When everyone was bearish on the YEN the YEN went to being bullish. Talk about a short squeeze and now that everyone is bearish about Brexit we could see something similar take place to squeeze shorts out this week.
  • #60,468
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:54am Jun 19, 2016 11:54am
Quoting Sohocool
In hourly full Bearish with Ichimoku V6 system ,the Stop Lost : 104.320 Regards. {image}
Bearish on YEN or bearish on dollar against YEN?
  • #60,469
  • Jun 19, 2016 12:01pm Jun 19, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Bearish on YEN or bearish on dollar against YEN?
Friday at close the dollar was full bearish against yen with Ichimoku system .(usd vs jpy).

KISS&V :Keep it simple safe & visual
  • #60,470
  • Jun 19, 2016 12:06pm Jun 19, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting Devart
{quote} Hello, where can I download your indicator?
hello, i have posted some ichimoku indicators on ichimoku forever thread,already :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...89#post6509589

This week i will post on my sohocool blog : four indicators with template (like picture) ,but without monitor V6.

KISS&V :Keep it simple safe & visual
  • #60,471
  • Jun 19, 2016 1:01pm Jun 19, 2016 1:01pm
Closely watching this pair!
  • #60,472
  • Jun 19, 2016 3:17pm Jun 19, 2016 3:17pm
All the uncertainties are likely keep Yen the safe-haven currency on demand prior to the Brexit vote. I'm expecting the pair would be push lower in the coming week.
  • #60,473
  • Jun 19, 2016 3:29pm Jun 19, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting csc2009
All the uncertainties are likely keep Yen the safe-haven currency on demand prior to the Brexit vote. I'm expecting the pair would be push lower in the coming week.
It's entering a demand zone, just need to watch PA to see if it a strong move out or not. Indecision could lead to more downside but the market will show its hand shortly as this strong demand zone can't be ignored news or no news.
  • #60,474
  • Jun 19, 2016 8:52pm Jun 19, 2016 8:52pm
Quoting Sohocool
{quote} Friday at close the dollar was full bearish against yen with Ichimoku system .(usd vs jpy).
That changed quickly.. Look at Futures now. Most indexes are up big time
  • #60,475
  • Edited 2:13am Jun 20, 2016 2:00am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} That changed quickly.. Look at Futures now. Most indexes are up big time
Today ,it is rather Bullish .

Always use Stop Lost : 104.54.

A strong resistance at : 104.96 (Kijun 4Hours).

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KISS&V :Keep it simple safe & visual
  • #60,476
  • Jun 20, 2016 2:11am Jun 20, 2016 2:11am
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Balance is short and there is no doubt better wait for point for open short. Yes, the provocation to point for open short position can make good up move, but have trade against to balance isn't safely,
  • #60,477
  • Jun 20, 2016 2:24am Jun 20, 2016 2:24am
I am entered in the market with 2 orders. (I am not using > as bigger than...)

One order is already done > bull at 104,78 > SL: 104.307 > TP: 114.119. In case 103.50 is the absolute minimum I will increase the position at the end of wave 2 in the bull UsdJpy trend.

If the case this minumum around 103.50 will not the absolute I have positioned a SELL STOP order at 102.90. > SL: 103.60 > TP 100.00

Personally I prefer the this cross reaches the TP of 100 so everyone will be happy and the bull trend can start


http://www.fxstreet.com/news/usdjpy-...n-201606200650
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  • #60,478
  • Jun 20, 2016 2:37am Jun 20, 2016 2:37am
Quoting Sohocool
{quote} hello, i have posted some ichimoku indicators on ichimoku forever thread,already : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...89#post6509589 This week i will post on my sohocool blog : four indicators with template (like picture) ,but without monitor V6.
yeah good, I like ur way to resume the data.
So Shall I have this exactly indicator ?
Please supply also some explanation about how to use ur indicator and how to set it

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1466353944
  • #60,479
  • Jun 20, 2016 7:38pm Jun 20, 2016 7:38pm
Long at 103.88 risk 103.5 tg 104.1
  • #60,480
  • Jun 20, 2016 8:59pm Jun 20, 2016 8:59pm
Quoting chazzle
Long at 103.88 risk 103.5 tg 104.1
closed at target
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