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  • #1,070,281
  • Edited 5:48am Jun 18, 2016 2:39am | Edited 5:48am
Quoting geektrader
{quote} I am a British actually, living in Germany since 10 years though. So whats your point? And it has nothing to do with Brits, people are the same everywhere in the end, its psychological.... Youll see on Monday and latest Thursday that they will stay with quite a huge difference for the STAYs.
Published several hours ago:

BMG/Herald Final EU Referendum Poll - http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmghera...ferendum-poll/
It was released after markets closed for the weekend. The poll was conducted before the murder of MP Jo Cox - 10-15th June (!).
The telephone poll showed Remain with 53.3 percent support and Leave with 46.7 percent. The poll excluded the "don't knows" assumes "Don't knows" will break 2:1 in favour of Remain (WTF?!?).
But a separate online poll by BMG showed the Leave camp leading by 10 points, with Leave at 55.5 percent support and Remain at 44.5 percent.

USA Today - Exclusive poll: EU support falls after Jo Cox murder - http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...rder/86031038/
"Qriously, a London-based technology start-up that gathers data and intelligence about consumers through mobile phone apps, found that backing among likely voters for Britain's EU membership has dropped to 32% from 40% before her death."
"Stephan Shakespeare, the founder and chief executive British polling firm YouGov, told USA TODAY he did not think Cox's murder would lead to a shift in attitudes toward the vote."
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,070,282
  • Jun 18, 2016 3:20am Jun 18, 2016 3:20am
Wikipedia - Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...hip_referendum
The latest polls are published there within few hours.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,070,283
  • Jun 18, 2016 12:35pm Jun 18, 2016 12:35pm
From Oanda:
NOTICE: Due to the Brexit event we will be temporarily lowering the maximum leverage available on GBP pairs to 20:1 and EUR pairs to 50:1 after the market close on June 17, 2016. The affected pairs will return to prior leverage levels after the market close on June 24, 2016. Margin rates on pairs not containing GBP or EUR will not be affected.

Wild.
  • #1,070,284
  • Jun 18, 2016 2:46pm Jun 18, 2016 2:46pm
The polls you post are pointless. People will vote something completely different on the 23rd June, youll see. Many change their opinion once they have to make their X because "fear of the new" takes over the last second, its just typical psychologicals. Youll see... Bookmakers also agree as of today with that (ALL of them):

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...bership-result

and

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06...n-say-bookies/ (article from today)

"The campaigning has been halted, as the country mourns the death of Jo Cox, but the financial markets have continued and indicate that a Remain vote is significantly more likely than Leave. The pound has been rising sharply (it would likely fall in the event of Brexit) and the betting markets how suggest that a Remain vote is almost twice as likely as Brexit. The Spectator’s Live Odds chart is below, and will update every time you revisit the page."
  • #1,070,285
  • Edited 4:27pm Jun 18, 2016 4:03pm | Edited 4:27pm
Quoting Uturn2
{quote} EURUSD 4H Chart: Alternative count. Expanded Flat for a wave ii. Cheers, U2 {image}
I'm agreed with your count.....also your alternative count ...but this looks to me a little too stretched, the wave efb looks too long (measure it in the spreadsheet...I think it's out of range). In my chart it must go a little above the 1,1296 to be an Expanded flat. And with another broker...it is already an expanded flat.....mhh if the alternative count is true.... then it's a very close call with just a margin from 8pips....!!

There is also a possibility that we see a bigger (expanded) Flat... see the darkblue count (EFA'/FA' ....etc) With this count it's not a close call anymore..... but it is indicating that we can even go up (after the flat) to 1,1415 (and a little higher) before we can expect the long expected down-move.

What do I prefer....?? I really don't have clue now ....but I prefer the bigger (expanded) flat, the dark blue count. Anyway....I think HEW is suggesting in all three case to go down for now. In this down-move it looks like the max. is indeed 1,1303 for now.

I will watch the Pivots and sma200 and sma89 in 4H-chart and the 1,1303 to guide me further......!!

EDIT: I also looked to the old bullish count. Indicating a move above the 1,1714.... but for now I can't make this looking good in terms of wave counts. Well never say never in this situation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 39 KB
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,070,286
  • Edited 8:50pm Jun 18, 2016 7:20pm | Edited 8:50pm
Quoting geektrader
The polls you post are pointless. People will vote something completely different on the 23rd June, youll see. Many change their opinion once they have to make their X because "fear of the new" takes over the last second, its just typical psychologicals. Youll see... Bookmakers also agree as of today with that (ALL of them): http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...bership-result and http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06...n-say-bookies/ (article from today)...
Have you ever heard about protest vote (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protest_vote)? Yes, it is psychological. People do not like to be regarded as lemmings. The more they are obviously manipulated to do something, the more they tend to do the opposite.

Bookies have already been wrong many times, haven't they? Especially in politics. More wrong then polling experts. It is because betters are not a representative sample of voters. BTW, it is also mentioned by the blog that you linked in your post.

P.S.: This is a good article published by CNBC on Friday. It is an explanation of pro-Brexit stance that was writen by a Brit (contributor Reuters BreakingViews) for American "cousins". Brexit: Why I'm voting to leave the European Union (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/17/brexi...ommentary.html). The author is definitely not a lemming.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,070,287
  • Jun 19, 2016 1:38am Jun 19, 2016 1:38am
Surely not, but most of his followers are and they will be afraid in the end right before making their "X" and will stay to vote. No need to discuss this further, youīll see on Thursday
  • #1,070,288
  • Jun 19, 2016 3:22am Jun 19, 2016 3:22am
"The pound has been rising sharply (it would likely fall in the event of Brexit)"

thats a big bullshit

rising sharply? where, which time frame? its been falling since months, weeks and days unless you look in the microscope to the hourly
it would likely fall in the event of brexit? seriously? which idiot wrote this article?

When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #1,070,289
  • Jun 19, 2016 4:48am Jun 19, 2016 4:48am
Quoting geektrader
Surely not, but most of his followers are and they will be afraid in the end right before making their "X" and will stay to vote. No need to discuss this further, youll see on Thursday
Okay. We will see.
BTW, somebody deleted the two polls conducted by Qriously from the Wikipedia site. The results were pro-Brexit and the editor probably did not like them. It is stupid and very sympromatic for pro-EU "democrats".
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,070,290
  • Jun 19, 2016 5:31am Jun 19, 2016 5:31am
Quoting geektrader
The polls you post are pointless. People will vote something completely different on the 23rd June, youll see. Many change their opinion once they have to make their X because "fear of the new" takes over the last second, its just typical psychologicals. Youll see... Bookmakers also agree as of today with that (ALL of them): http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...bership-result and http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06...n-say-bookies/ (article from today)...
i highly doubt that people are just going to change their decision last second...
also its so shallow for you to say that its uneducated people voting for leave... seems like you would be or are extremely up your own arse...
BTW I'm highly educated and I'm voting out
  • #1,070,291
  • Jun 19, 2016 7:11am Jun 19, 2016 7:11am
It seems the upcoming week will be very busy from the view of financial markets. Not only because of Brexit referendum.

The Wall Street Journal - Brexit Vote Tops Busy Week for European Central Bank - http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-v...ank-1466334813 (Updated June 19, 2016 7:16 a.m. ET)

"Britain's vote Thursday on European Union membership is just one of several potentially momentous events faced by the European Central Bank next week.
A national election in Spain could raise further questions about the future of the EU and its single currency, the euro. In Germany, the nation's top court will deliver its long-awaited verdict on a key ECB crisis-fighting program, a decision lawyers say could constrain the central bank or even stymie European integration. And the central bank will also roll out the controversial last leg of a stimulus program it announced in March - a series of subsidized loans for banks.
"This is very likely the most important week of the year for the European Central Bank, by far," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London."

Quoting Don96
{quote} i highly doubt that people are just going to change their decision last second... also its so shallow for you to say that its uneducated people voting for leave... seems like you would be or are extremely up your own arse... BTW I'm highly educated and I'm voting out
Thanks for your stance.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,070,292
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:50am Jun 19, 2016 11:50am
Quoting micho
"The pound has been rising sharply (it would likely fall in the event of Brexit)" thats a big bullshit rising sharply? where, which time frame? its been falling since months, weeks and days unless you look in the microscope to the hourly it would likely fall in the event of brexit? seriously? which idiot wrote this article?
GBPJPY rose 300 pips from 145 to 148 in a few hours, which Id call sharp Btw, as of today, latest polls are Pro-EU again.
  • #1,070,293
  • Jun 19, 2016 12:53pm Jun 19, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting geektrader
{quote} GBPJPY rose 300 pips from 145 to 148 in a few hours, which Id call sharp Btw, as of today, latest polls are Pro-EU again.
Yes you are right but we cannot just go by the polls alone and we have to see the moves in the larger context so that we will come to know about the actual reason for such moves
FXOpen - International True ECN Broker
  • #1,070,294
  • Jun 19, 2016 12:56pm Jun 19, 2016 12:56pm
gap UP probably ...
  • #1,070,295
  • Jun 19, 2016 1:01pm Jun 19, 2016 1:01pm
Volatility ahead!
  • #1,070,296
  • Jun 19, 2016 1:06pm Jun 19, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting EuroScalper
{quote} Yes you are right but we cannot just go by the polls alone and we have to see the moves in the larger context so that we will come to know about the actual reason for such moves
Nope, clear thing. Iīve been short for about 700 pips total last week, then did get 200 pips of the up-move on Friday, all good. Though Brexit will simply not happen, itīs just psychologicals... But meanwhile we will see high volatility for sure. But on Thursday we will get a sharp up-move cause UK will stay in the EU.
  • #1,070,297
  • Edited 1:14pm Jun 19, 2016 1:12pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting arigoldman
Volatility ahead!
yes !! We shall see the craziest swings in maybe 10 years. My humble forecast for GBP pairs is 600 pips. who will better this??
I suggest we make a betting pool and split some imaginary money.
PS: i sold the poor pound and after a day can buy/sell again. Easy money. But sell more often....
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,070,298
  • Jun 19, 2016 1:59pm Jun 19, 2016 1:59pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} yes !! We shall see the craziest swings in maybe 10 years. My humble forecast for GBP pairs is 600 pips. who will better this?? I suggest we make a betting pool and split some imaginary money. PS: i sold the poor pound and after a day can buy/sell again. Easy money. But sell more often....
Or not at all since many people wonīt trade this week because of all the warnings.
  • #1,070,299
  • Edited 2:23pm Jun 19, 2016 2:03pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} I'm agreed with your count.....also your alternative count ...but this looks to me a little too stretched, the wave efb looks too long (measure it in the spreadsheet...I think it's out of range). In my chart it must go a little above the 1,1296 to be an Expanded flat. And with another broker...it is already an expanded flat.....mhh if the alternative count is true.... then it's a very close call with just a margin from 8pips....!! There is also a possibility that we see a bigger (expanded) Flat... see the darkblue count (EFA'/FA'...
Thanks HM.
From my alternate count, I think wave EFC is complete.
On my charts it went to within 2 pips of the wave EFA [high].
From the book P63 [and spreadsheet],
Ian says he has seen EFB expansions of 50% in equity markets.
So this would be ok, just a whisker past 50%.

Or,
wave iii / b has retraced [almost 100%] of wave iii/a
[which we know is valid].
It needs to stay below 1.1298 to remain wave iii / b.
As you point out, it doesn't have much room to move on the upside.

I have a turn forming on the 4H,
however 2H remains Long.
I may even wait for a 6H turn to be sure.
The Asian session may see continued consolidation at this level,
but not break 1.1303 [or 1.1298].
Both these counts lean towards continuation down.

I have posted a 6H Chart.
It shows a Double Top in a Down Trend.
If correct, it's about to get smashed!

Cheers, U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 160619 6H [1].png Size: 79 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #1,070,300
  • Edited 2:17pm Jun 19, 2016 2:06pm | Edited 2:17pm
http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/...rom=EUR&To=USD No gap. Same price as Friday.

And as in terms for Brexit, GBPJPY already now has a 120 pips gap up http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/...rom=gbp&To=jpy and raising....
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