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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #23,601
  • Jun 17, 2016 12:05am Jun 17, 2016 12:05am
CAC40
PO FR30EUR, Short @ 4270 (10x) if so, Target @ 4'150
___
PO = Pending Order
  • #23,602
  • Jun 17, 2016 12:21am Jun 17, 2016 12:21am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Talk about a major reversal day today though. This Thursdag turned out to be another buy the reversal dips day today. I would love to short now but if I short now and QE funds want it to close above 9700 for 2nd quarter futures expirations which expire tomorrow I would be petty fucked unless market tanked on finally day of futures expirations tomorrow.
Hmmm... It was a typical Thursday reversal as you often say!

However, when you say QE has stepped in, I thought the ECB QE was only for buying Govt and Corporate Bonds of a certain credit quality (which, has the effect of creating money supply), and does not include any purchase of Equities!? Or am I missing something?

I understood that this week the ECB started to buy Corporate Bonds for the first time, so that takes investment opportunities away from the Investor, and indirectly I suppose steers them to riskier assets like Stocks and Property.
  • #23,603
  • Jun 17, 2016 1:35am Jun 17, 2016 1:35am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Hmmm... It was a typical Thursday reversal as you often say! However, when you say QE has stepped in, I thought the ECB QE was only for buying Govt and Corporate Bonds of a certain credit quality (which, has the effect of creating money supply), and does not include any purchase of Equities!? Or am I missing something? I understood that this week the ECB started to buy Corporate Bonds for the first time, so that takes investment opportunities away from the Investor, and indirectly I suppose steers them to riskier assets like Stocks and Property....
All of that is irrelevant anyway. The reason dax has moved up is because sellers are taking profit and long term support/demand has been hit. It's that simple, draw a line on the chart and read the price action. As soon as we start muddying the waters with meaningless futures expiration dates and fundamental gossip we akin trading to reading tea leaves.
  • #23,604
  • Jun 17, 2016 1:42am Jun 17, 2016 1:42am
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} All of that is irrelevant anyway. The reason dax has moved up is because sellers are taking profit and long term support/demand has been hit. It's that simple, draw a line on the chart and read the price action. As soon as we start muddying the waters with meaningless futures expiration dates and fundamental gossip we akin trading to reading tea leaves.
Tbh, my thoughts this morning was a rejection from the 7sma on Daily, which usually acts as resistance if the downtrend still prevails. I have several layers of support beneath based on price action. I was just curious about the QE comment in relation to Euro Equities that's all. I still have reversal dates on 24 June and 30 June, so maybe we havent seen the bottom. Just my thoughts atm.
:nerd:
  • #23,605
  • Jun 17, 2016 1:54am Jun 17, 2016 1:54am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Tbh, my thoughts this morning was a rejection from the 7sma on Daily, which usually acts as resistance if the downtrend still prevails. I have several layers of support beneath based on price action. I was just curious about the QE comment in relation to Euro Equities that's all. I still have reversal dates on 24 June and 30 June, so maybe we havent seen the bottom. Just my thoughts atm. :nerd:
Hope I didn't come across too blunt The more simple we keep this, the easier trading becomes.
  • #23,606
  • Jun 17, 2016 1:57am Jun 17, 2016 1:57am
This would be a reasonable outcome today. 9800 is easily on the cards in my opinion.

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  • #23,607
  • Jun 17, 2016 2:18am Jun 17, 2016 2:18am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Hmmm... It was a typical Thursday reversal as you often say! However, when you say QE has stepped in, I thought the ECB QE was only for buying Govt and Corporate Bonds of a certain credit quality (which, has the effect of creating money supply), and does not include any purchase of Equities!? Or am I missing something? I understood that this week the ECB started to buy Corporate Bonds for the first time, so that takes investment opportunities away from the Investor, and indirectly I suppose steers them to riskier assets like Stocks and Property....
The last time we hit around 9500 they intervened and we shot straight up to 10,000. Usually pretty easy to tell when they intervene. If you notice though before they intervene that the market usually drops to get everyone to go short and then they intervene to squeeze out all shorts. Quite often this intervention I have found to take place on Thursdays. Drop 800-200 points and then reverse back up from there. Mark and note the actions that took place this week and then keep them in mind for the next futures expiration date for September the 16th. Let's see what happens on Thursday September the 15th. March 18th we closed at around 9820 if I am not mistaken so it looks like we may close just under that this quarter or they may lift it up to try and close flat for this quarter. From the looks of the intervention that took place yesterday it looks like were trying to get it back up there.
  • #23,608
  • Jun 17, 2016 2:30am Jun 17, 2016 2:30am
Got in and out for a quick $1K scalp trade.
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  • #23,609
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:10am Jun 17, 2016 6:10am
Quoting NaughtyPip
This would be a reasonable outcome today. 9800 is easily on the cards in my opinion. {image}
#23'607

...& 9'7670 would close the gap 4 days ago.
FXcube
  • #23,610
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:12am Jun 17, 2016 6:12am
DAX
...as long as H4 EMA14 won't be running down, an upward movement seems also possible at least short term, if so.
FXcube
  • #23,611
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:20am Jun 17, 2016 6:20am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} #23'607 ...& 9'7670 would close the gap 4 days ago. FXcube
Good morning. You overslept today.
  • #23,612
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:31am Jun 17, 2016 6:31am
There is going to be a lot of covering taking place today for them SPY calls and puts which expire today. Probably cover the calls and then sell off after. Perhaps the covering already took place
  • #23,613
  • Edited 6:52am Jun 17, 2016 6:32am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Good morning. You overslept today.
exactly the opposite.
5h hypnotic sleep...but there is no hurry!

...& in the morning...shoulder stand headstand ...it's already done!
since 5:30 gmt+2 completely awake.

my first comment here this morning: 6:38am #23'596

...& coming back from fitness (2.5h) just now.
I feel on top of the world
(despite the raining days in europe here (since over 5 weeks now; - can't cut the lawn since over 10 days ...slightly humid).
FXcube
  • #23,614
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:42am Jun 17, 2016 6:42am
Quoting NaughtyPip
This would be a reasonable outcome today. 9800 is easily on the cards in my opinion. {image}

Longs around 9550 look fairly good. Stops at 9420, target around 9780..

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  • #23,615
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:42am Jun 17, 2016 6:42am
Quoting stylinex
There is going to be a lot of covering taking place today for them SPY calls and puts which expire today. Probably cover the calls and then sell off after. Perhaps the covering already took place
#23'613

I've make 7% today
& now nasdaque 4'419 (long & short), long target @ 4'430; short target: open end
...by resizing the risk.
maybe I shouldn't trade any longer today,
...it could be market's monkeyshine today...downright nonsense!...crazy friday? ...brexit?...
turmoils? ...there might be something in the wind!
FXcube
  • #23,616
  • Edited 7:00am Jun 17, 2016 6:46am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting stylinex
There is going to be a lot of covering taking place today for them SPY calls and puts which expire today. Probably cover the calls and then sell off after. Perhaps the covering already took place
s and p most likely sell off today for some... down to 2064 cash

Dow jones also looks like sellers will come in for us session
  • #23,617
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:58am Jun 17, 2016 6:58am
Just closed my quick scalp at 9582. I think I am done for the day. Best to be on safe side and not get greedy. One should be thankful for $1700 for two trades.
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  • #23,618
  • Jun 17, 2016 7:01am Jun 17, 2016 7:01am
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} s and p most likely sell off today for some... down to 2064 cash
Would not surprise me. Last day of the week on a week that incurred heavy losses,last day of futures expirations for US/Europe and the week before before Brexit. Last day of weekly options expirations in US as well. Something to keep in mind though was Asian stock indexes finished green today
  • #23,619
  • Jun 17, 2016 7:08am Jun 17, 2016 7:08am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Would not surprise me. Last day of the week on a week that incurred heavy losses,last day of futures expirations for US/Europe and the week before before Brexit. Last day of weekly options expirations in US as well.
Just read the price action my friend.. You don't need all that gossip... unless you are a stock broker trying to sell an idea to a client.
  • #23,620
  • Jun 17, 2016 7:11am Jun 17, 2016 7:11am
Quoting stylinex
Just closed my quick scalp at 9582. I think I am done for the day. Best to be on safe side and not get greedy. One should be thankful for $1700 for two trades. {image}


The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!
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