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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #60,441
  • Jun 16, 2016 2:59am Jun 16, 2016 2:59am
Quoting oztrader79
{quote} Yeah but I wouldn't sell at this point either (obviously depending on SL/TP by that I mean if you working with a 200 pip SL it may be a different story to selling now with an 80 pip SL)
Yea its a no trade either way, at the moment. Although they may try and fill the gap made over last 100 pips or so, but would be a risky buy.
  • #60,442
  • Jun 16, 2016 3:11am Jun 16, 2016 3:11am
dont catch a falling knife this is a heavy hitter, JPY
TE started 6/4/19
  • #60,443
  • Jun 16, 2016 3:16am Jun 16, 2016 3:16am
just went long UJ, wanted 103.56... was asleep, easy to say in hindsight but my short target was 103.5x/100.5x... ill take bigger/biggest longs at 100.5x
  • #60,444
  • Jun 16, 2016 5:15am Jun 16, 2016 5:15am
Quoting Don96
just went long UJ, wanted 103.56... was asleep, easy to say in hindsight but my short target was 103.5x/100.5x... ill take bigger/biggest longs at 100.5x
At around 100 I reckon BOJ will intervene heavily. My guess is that BOJ did want to intervene until after they see what comes out of the Brexit Vote. They did not want to fire their last few bullets prior to another financial crisis being cooked up.
  • #60,445
  • Jun 16, 2016 5:38am Jun 16, 2016 5:38am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} At around 100 I reckon BOJ will intervene heavily. My guess is that BOJ did want to intervene until after they see what comes out of the Brexit Vote. They did not want to fire their last few bullets prior to another financial crisis being cooked up.
....surely this is similar to the SNB scenario, in that the BoJ can simply print cash to create a weaker Yen.
I don't understand why they are not doing this....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #60,446
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:18am Jun 16, 2016 6:18am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} ....surely this is similar to the SNB scenario, in that the BoJ can simply print cash to create a weaker Yen. I don't understand why they are not doing this....
I think they will wait until after Brexit. My guess on this. Look at the Chinese Yuan, still on the weaker side closer to 6.59
Japan is literally screwed at around 104 YEN to the Dollar. They are trying to boost tourism and exports. 104 is not going to cut it.
  • #60,447
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:20am Jun 16, 2016 6:20am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} ....surely this is similar to the SNB scenario, in that the BoJ can simply print cash to create a weaker Yen. I don't understand why they are not doing this....
They've tried, increasing bond buying etc - negative interest rates was another attempt people buying yen in response to everything going on with other currencies
  • #60,448
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:54am Jun 16, 2016 6:54am
Quoting Don96
{quote} They've tried, increasing bond buying etc - negative interest rates was another attempt people buying yen in response to everything going on with other currencies
No... I meant, print a zillion Yen ($100bn ) and buy USD, AUD, ...maybe not european currencies. ....maybe some gold
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #60,449
  • Jun 16, 2016 6:58am Jun 16, 2016 6:58am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I think they will wait until after Brexit. My guess on this. Look at the Chinese Yuan, still on the weaker side closer to 6.59 Japan is literally screwed at around 104 YEN to the Dollar. They are trying to boost tourism and exports. 104 is not going to cut it.
They could try issuing Geisha coupons to foreign business men, that might encourage a few more.

They could turn off all their power generation and buy electricity from China, award the supply cable contract to Taiwan
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #60,450
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:20am Jun 16, 2016 8:20am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I think they will wait until after Brexit. My guess on this. Look at the Chinese Yuan, still on the weaker side closer to 6.59 Japan is literally screwed at around 104 YEN to the Dollar. They are trying to boost tourism and exports. 104 is not going to cut it.
  • #60,451
  • Jun 16, 2016 9:09am Jun 16, 2016 9:09am
BOJ is running out of bullets. Make that, they ran out of bullets awhile ago.
  • #60,452
  • Edited 9:24am Jun 16, 2016 9:11am | Edited 9:24am
next stop is at 100?

is this pair going down just due to risk aversion?
it rubs the lotion on its skin
  • #60,453
  • Jun 16, 2016 10:38pm Jun 16, 2016 10:38pm
"Japan’s economy minister Ishihara crossed the wires earlier today via Reuters, commenting on the price outlook.
Key Quotes:
Recent economic indicators show Japan's economy is exiting deflation, moving forward"


Did that really impacted the usd/jpy, from 104.60 to 104.39 ?
  • #60,454
  • Jun 16, 2016 10:47pm Jun 16, 2016 10:47pm
Quoting oztrader79
{quote} me. target 104.80 entry 103.80. SL 102.9
TP hit, nice way to finish the week.
  • #60,455
  • Jun 16, 2016 10:55pm Jun 16, 2016 10:55pm
http://news.forexlive.com/!/want-a-l...antee-20160617
Attached Image
  • #60,456
  • Jun 16, 2016 11:26pm Jun 16, 2016 11:26pm
There is still more down side on this pair but I think a correction is due.

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  • #60,457
  • Jun 17, 2016 1:16am Jun 17, 2016 1:16am
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Yen, as I told, in short balance and better play to short. I'm waiting rollback and continue down move.
  • #60,458
  • Jun 17, 2016 2:55am Jun 17, 2016 2:55am
"Japan’s economy minister Ishihara crossed the wires earlier today via Reuters, commenting on the price outlook.
Key Quotes:
Recent economic indicators show Japan's economy is exiting deflation, moving forward"


Did that really impacted the usd/jpy, from 104.60 to 104.39 ?
  • #60,459
  • Edited 8:38am Jun 17, 2016 7:27am | Edited 8:38am
Good Afternoon guys I wanna share with you my considerations.
As we know the cross UsdJpy has lost more than 1000 pips in less than 5 months and due to brexit the FED and BOJ has waiting to see the result of the referendum in order to see how to act.
About my consideration I think that if UsdJpy still to go down even if UK exits the cross UsdJpy will crash around 100-00/101.00 due that at this level there is the retracemt of 50.0 % of the movement started in 01/2012 and ended in 06/2015 (well diivided in 5 waves). I support this idea also due to that this strong yen damages the jap economy (stock market is negative) and I dunno think the BOJ will let the Cross test the 61% retracement at more or less 94.

I have had some problems to understand the correction movement from 06/2015 to NOW but maybe I have found the pattern.
It is a Flat pattern (3-3-5) --> a,b,c [W] (3) --> [X] (3)--> a,b,c,d,e [Y].
Now if the last point has reached a minimum or not, this depends I think mainly on the results of the Brexit.
If Uk exits UsdJpy will falls down until 100-101, otherwise I think that the correction movement has found its absolute minumum at 103.50.

Secondly (but I am not sure about this indicators) seeing the correlation between Chainkin Oscillator and the price now the correlation is negative and RSI also is near to ipersold area.

My idea is that when bull will enter (i think in 1-2 months, more one) the LT target will be around 117.00

Thank you for your time.
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  • #60,460
  • Jun 17, 2016 7:54am Jun 17, 2016 7:54am
this pair seems to be stuck
it rubs the lotion on its skin
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