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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,921
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:50pm Jun 11, 2016 4:50pm
doubtful brexit will happen

the very big qiestion to answer is whether this last nfp was an outlier or not. I suspect the usd will be in big trouble if the next nfp is a miss


1.247x is valid as valid can be, macro data only confirming it.....
  • #140,922
  • Jun 12, 2016 8:32am Jun 12, 2016 8:32am
Quoting Pharm0r
doubtful brexit will happen the very big qiestion to answer is whether this last nfp was an outlier or not. I suspect the usd will be in big trouble if the next nfp is a miss 1.247x is valid as valid can be, macro data only confirming it.....
Really?

EU referendum: Poll reveals massive late swing towards Brexit
  • #140,923
  • Jun 12, 2016 10:18am Jun 12, 2016 10:18am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} Really? EU referendum: Poll reveals massive late swing towards Brexit
and?

Quote
The survey of 2,000 people
  • #140,924
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:08am Jun 12, 2016 11:08am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} Really? EU referendum: Poll reveals massive late swing towards Brexit
These are all survey from online News, their sample are usually bias toward certain kind of reader thú their poll are bias toward certain result.
  • #140,925
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:10am Jun 12, 2016 11:10am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} and? {quote}
LOL
BT.com p0ublished research conducted among over 20,000

EXCLUSIVE: BT.com BREXIT poll shows 80% for Leave….then ...
  • #140,926
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:15am Jun 12, 2016 11:15am
To be honest I've spoken to hardly anyone that is staying in and the word is everyone wants out
  • #140,927
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:27am Jun 12, 2016 11:27am
Why is there such a big difference between the odds-maker's (the bookies) estimates and the other polls? Were they (the bookies) more accurate in the Scottish referendum?

Sadly, Orlando will reverberate in various ways - will not help the Bremain case and will probably tighten the US Prez election.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,928
  • Edited 12:47pm Jun 12, 2016 12:34pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting Don96
To be honest I've spoken to hardly anyone that is staying in and the word is everyone wants out
Get me to think about Hotel California:
"Relax, " said the night man,
"We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! "


They can vote for Brexit. But they can never leave. They will possible get a kind of EEC membership after years of negotiations that will end up that they have to keep all commitments but have been losing the voting rights in EU.

Look to how Norway ended up with that after No vote to EU . Has to follow all regulations and directives from EU but has no voting rights so they are running from door to door in Brussel. Also need to take their part of refugees etc. and are paying a high fee to have access to the EU market and they get discriminated with some extra bureaucracy for goods entering/leaving Norway even if they are EEC member since they are not part of the VAT system in EU.

And the next PM I guess will be named Boris Johnson. ( It is he's goal I guess)

So we will possible have some years with high volatility in GBP instruments if we see a Brexit majority. So if not anything else it can be good for trading.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #140,929
  • Edited Jun 13, 2016 12:22am Jun 12, 2016 1:14pm | Edited Jun 13, 2016 12:22am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Get me to think about Hotel California: "Relax, " said the night man, "We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! " They can vote for Brexit. But they can never leave. They will possible get a kind of EEC membership after years of negotiations that will end up that they have to keep all commitments but have been losing the voting rights in EU. Look to how Norway ended up with that after No vote to EU . Has to follow all regulations and directives from EU but has no voting rights so they are...
Very cool post, Earleone. Nicely put too!
It would be nice if us folks would have any word at most important decisions, but unfortunatly we are all the slaves of big $$$. They will decide for us one way or another, until there will come much bigger event than one tiny Brexit referendum. It might happen that we will not even live long enough to witness it.

Until then, I'm afraid, we will have to remain humble and keep paying mindblowing taxes for already filty rich people to remain this way. I still remember my 14th salary and 65% of tax I had to pay when I had my regular job. It is a crime that I, who did the job ( and any other working person of course!!!) get 35% and the tax collectors get 65%. It is getting worse, not better every year, and I seriously doubt that fat guys that control the governments by paying for their law making will let anything harm their wealth!
Unfortunatly!

( oh, and I have a suggesstion...we can let those bustards to play on GBP pairs alone too....and trade heavily nicely bearish UJ and UCad. I know I will do it this way. ...this is just to remind traders on all the games they played with the news on Greece event - specualtions few months ago: every time any asshole had five minutes time to post on Twitter , the pair (EU) was jumping up or down, depending on what that asshole said- and clearing SLses both ways...so let them screw each other and trade what is obvious to trade.. )

EDIT:

USDJPY Short Trade:
Closed for 89.1 pips average.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYiH1 Short 13.6..png Size: 65 KB

UCad will follow sometime this week. We are getting nice retrace up for better shorts sometime between tomorrow NYS and Wednesday rate decision time..
PVSRA
  • #140,930
  • Edited 7:08pm Jun 12, 2016 6:52pm | Edited 7:08pm
70+% in this online poll will vote to leave.

He backed the American Revolution, not to create something dangerously daring and new but rather to restore lost liberties and self-government, the settled practice of an earlier age. Americans of all people should understand why a nation may wish to assert its independence.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...ng-for-brexit/
  • #140,931
  • Jun 13, 2016 6:02am Jun 13, 2016 6:02am
Quoting The Fool
Why is there such a big difference between the odds-maker's (the bookies) estimates and the other polls? Were they (the bookies) more accurate in the Scottish referendum? Sadly, Orlando will reverberate in various ways - will not help the Bremain case and will probably tighten the US Prez election.
the news would never lie
  • #140,932
  • Jun 13, 2016 6:08am Jun 13, 2016 6:08am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Get me to think about Hotel California: "Relax, " said the night man, "We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! " They can vote for Brexit. But they can never leave.
ding ding ding
  • #140,933
  • Jun 13, 2016 8:02am Jun 13, 2016 8:02am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} ding ding ding
Or Ka-ching for GBP shorts and Gold longs LOL

Inserted Video
  • #140,934
  • Jun 13, 2016 11:34am Jun 13, 2016 11:34am
Quoting Fisher755
( oh, and I have a suggesstion...we can let those bustards to play on GBP pairs alone too....and trade heavily nicely bearish UJ and UCad. I know I will do it this way. ...this is just to remind traders on all the games they played with the news on Greece event - specualtions few months ago: every time any asshole had five minutes time to post on Twitter , the pair (EU) was jumping up or down, depending on what that asshole said- and clearing SLses both ways...so let them screw each other and trade what is obvious to trade.. )

...
GBPJPY Fast In Fast Out Long Trade:
This is what I have been talking about- suckers are clearing and Stop Hunting both ways...as Earleone said- volatility is good for trading. But over 100 pips up and the same pips down in just 5 minutes?!? This is legal stealing, nothing else.
106.7 pips average gain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYiM5 FIFO- clearing SLses 13.6..png Size: 75 KB
PVSRA
  • #140,935
  • Edited 4:44pm Jun 13, 2016 4:30pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Hello Sisse, I would like that you comment the map you would expect for the EURO for one no rate hike for the next FED Meeting. Although maybe is too early to speak about and it is going to depend if we listen a hawkish or dovish speech. Moreover I think this meeting will be contaminated with Brexit Referendum and polls,and no clear direction would be the resul of it. Anyway it would be nice to speak about it.
Indeed it's a good time to open the discussion as we are reaching key times for the year. We'll have plenty of time and opinions coming in the next few days so lets get started.

The first one in the table is FED. I pretty much agree with what some posters have already mentioned. Pharm0r summarised the expectations very clear above.

--> The very few chances for hikes this week vanished after the massive flop in NFP. Plus FED has been playing very conservative and too easy to read for the next hike and bastards have been riding the pig outsmarting the FED all the way to the bank since March. There are zero to none chances for a hike even just for the potential risk play in the UK. However what we are looking this week is outlook and macro number updates.

--> Markets as per today are sitting for July hike (and no risk) but things can shift or precipitate rather fast in the upcoming days. A positive outlook with a slightly hawkish FED will put us in RMT (Rate mode trading) for the rest of the summer but with a limited but decent pullback in Equities as "Good news will be good news" for the mid term instead of weighting heavier on the short term impact of the hikes.

--> If FED start to chicken out and show clear signals of constrain (outside of risk) we will keep grinding the highs on the bastards squeezing the last fumes of low rates but we wont see, neither a major or a sustainable break up in Equities as "bad news will be bad news" for the mid term instead of weighting heavier on the short term impact of the hikes.

--> So the map is crystal clear for the FED (including TA in all markets) expectations are also very well aligned to a timid/in line June FED starting to lean towards July but as you know the ??? uncertainty is the UK vote which is the other topic we'll open for discussion. Nobody knows the extend of the implications of a UK vote to exit but everybody knows that you don't want to be the sucker caught in a potential avalanche.

--> Going back to the impact of UK vote in the FED decision. I am starting to suspect that we will hold but in no man land after the knee jerk reaction with the FED to raise/or hold the bid only with a confirmed vote decision.

--> The issue is that if panic is trigger, we'll have (as we did during the Lehman and after) a coordinated action from all major CB to hold markets that will short-circuit CB monetary policy decisions in the short term. If panic goes beyond a knee jerk reaction we'll see July hikes fading rather fast to Q4 but sadly that will open pandora's box across world sending very strong bearish signals in the world economy.

We'll go in details on the macro implications of the FED as we get closer to the decisions but in nutshell. The short term flow and expectations are pretty much all set for this week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,936
  • Jun 14, 2016 3:40am Jun 14, 2016 3:40am
10 Year german BUND (currently 165.40) below 0% now.
Started building new shorts again after earlier positions being stopped.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #140,937
  • Edited 7:45am Jun 14, 2016 7:25am | Edited 7:45am
Even MSM has woken up now - Looks like UK will make the ''RIGHT'' choice.

UK Establishment Loses The Mainstream Media: "Why I Am Voting To Leave The EU"

SUN SAYS We urge our readers to beLEAVE in Britain and vote to quit the EU on June 23

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...oting-leave-eu
  • #140,938
  • Jun 14, 2016 9:17am Jun 14, 2016 9:17am
Quoting sisse
More importantly and for those in Sterling. All eyes on GU losing 1.444x [check] will unlock sharp momentum as early as this week targeting primary target the 2009 lows and below.
--> Changing short term outlook in GU from neutral to Aggressive Sell until the vote (or further info in the same front)...
...and I will take that. Clearing first main target in GU on the test 1.410x and we'll need the FED for a further break ...

As widely expected for the FED, back to square one across the board from the NFP knee jerk reaction. Expecting US equities to form a temporary base until the FED. Day will be over by the European close with Gold, Dollar and Tresuries sitting in launching platform for the rest of the year ....

Not much to see here until the European close before a last check of the board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,939
  • Jun 14, 2016 9:25am Jun 14, 2016 9:25am
sisse,

When you state you are CLEARING first main Target in Sterling what does that exactly mean? Does that mean you are FLAT, you TOOK some profit and cleared some of your open positions or SCALING in and going to take another SHORT if it bounces higher? This is another area I struggle with as I usually just let them run to the Target.

I know in SELL OUTLOOK you sell at Extremes and Inside out; but, you have to ge tin synch with the legs or moves as well. I don't do well in this style and your iterations helped me. GBP is a different beast as it can run 200 to 300 pips at times in a day.

I am targeting .364X at the moment but this is more of a two week view.

Thanks
  • #140,940
  • Jun 14, 2016 9:33am Jun 14, 2016 9:33am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, When you state you are CLEARING first main Target in Sterling what does that exactly mean? Does that mean you are FLAT, you TOOK some profit and cleared some of your open positions or SCALING in and going to take another SHORT if it bounces higher? This is another area I struggle with as I usually just let them run to the Target. I am targeting .364X at the moment. Thanks
Why should I be flat ?

First target is just first target. Is not Clearing all and flat ...

In the case of GU we have the double swing in play short and mid term (i hope you caught it as it gave more than enough time to jump on board). Short term just the crumbs left (to the lows of the 1.40xx handle) that we'll be play or clear last position with the FED ...on the mid term positions we just cleared 1st target which is the right place for a very healthy position management for the mover and shakers that will only start from tomorrow onwards. Lets see how it goes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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