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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,841
  • Jun 5, 2016 9:02pm Jun 5, 2016 9:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are getting into a better path. 1,128x was FA R on rate differentials until DEC hike indeed. However that level is long gone and not really the flip. Hint and to close the day. Try to mark when expectations swap in Dollar via FED (3 times already) and is now cleanly spotted in charts ...you are on the right track FA wise but too low TAwise ... try higher ... sisse
Hi Sisse,
On the flip level and the 3 FED meetings..
Feb 10 - closed @ 1.1290
Mar 29 - closed @ 1.1290
Apr 27 - closed @ 1.1320

1.129x is my choice for the flip..but 1.132x & 1.134x look cleaner TA wise

My next question was going to be no rate hike last dec, 1.128x would be still in-play? Or if the rate reversed?
You answered here already I think:
Quoting sisse
So agree we pretty much already digested the move. 1.128x
  • #140,842
  • Jun 5, 2016 11:46pm Jun 5, 2016 11:46pm
Oil fell off the cliff about 50 weeks ago...one of the biggest stories of the last year has been its steep decline and impressive recovery since Feb '16. Equities have risen right along with oil. Now we have to wonder if further upside will be possible for oil, as more and more marginal producers will come back into production mode as the price goes above $50. Many an oil analyst are talking about this now and saying oil will top out in the $50's or maybe low $60's. These geniuses make more in a month than I do in a year and almost all of them were dead wrong about oil's crash one year ago. What we really need is a sharp dose of USD strength, a hard backslide for oil, a quick 15%+ correction in equities, and all my stupid long vol trades to go into insane profit. Not sure it can happen....maybe Granma Yellen can help a brother out tomorrow?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,843
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:04am Jun 6, 2016 2:04am
Quoting sisse
Real money is starting to clear for the summer right now. There is way too many uncertainty factors in the picture for the next 8 weeks in play and this massive NFP wont be taken lightly. They wont(can't) selloff in a rush as the boat is loaded so we are witnessing the slow deleveraging flow of major hands. I am expecting they will raise bidding very soon as soon as they finishing clearing and rebalancing stock portfolios to cash. We'll see in a few. sisse
I see the smart money is unloading all that risk capital and heading off to the 157-room beach cabins on Nantucket. I sure am glad I'm short the market up to my eyebrows....
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,844
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:45am Jun 6, 2016 4:45am
Thanks Fool for putting the stooges up, remember my cousins and I playing there characters out.
That spinning bed would had to of hurt.
  • #140,845
  • Jun 6, 2016 8:52am Jun 6, 2016 8:52am
Quoting The Fool
I see the smart money is unloading
it's sarcasm....last day today for Fedheads to talk in the media prior to the Jun FOMC....anything but dove noises from JY will be a surprise...markets do not believe the Fed will hike until after the Nov elections
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,846
  • Jun 6, 2016 11:56am Jun 6, 2016 11:56am
Nothing new from Yellen in a rather dull day across the board.

Relatively hawkish (aka nothing new) comments as widely expected but after the awful NFP they will need a bit more than soft speeches from the FED .... Watch-out for Euro (Dollar actually) short-circuiting at the highs ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,847
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:08pm Jun 6, 2016 12:08pm
More importantly and for those in Sterling. All eyes on GU losing 1.444x will unlock sharp momentum as early as this week targeting primary target the 2009 lows and below.

UK keeps flirting to the back door exit from Europe. We are inches away from a major break down as we get closer to the vote and the polls are widening towards self inflicted pain (and its aligning to be very painful).

--> Changing short term outlook in GU from neutral to Aggressive Sell until the vote (or further info in the same front)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,848
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:42pm Jun 6, 2016 12:42pm
Quoting sisse
For those tracking CAD for a swing, watch-out CAD crashing at the 1.32xx handle in the upcoming sessions to mark the High of this Q and year and more importantly for a super tradable sharp mid and long term swing to 1.22xx...
Quoting sisse
...for those in the CAD trade. Watch-out OIL losing 48.4x for the energies close as CAD is sitting in imminent break down 1.296x[check]...
Finally and for those in the CAD trade, clearing second target in the swing on the failure to take 1.284x today in the smoothest trade of the season so far from across the FX board. ...OIL hasn't slide yet and keep holding with its fingernails the $49.xx handle and as long as it holds there is not much to do in this trade....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,849
  • Jun 6, 2016 1:19pm Jun 6, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}it's sarcasm....last day today for Fedheads to talk in the media prior to the Jun FOMC....anything but dove noises from JY will be a surprise...markets do not believe the Fed will hike until after the Nov elections
...and we finally ticked above this yearly highs (S&P 211x)...we struggled for weeks to complete the leg but NFP no hikes June was enough ....

World and US equities riding the more Free money (QE) and no hikes train for the 10000th time in last 8 years ... but I don't buy it this time. Keeping outlooks without change until further data or Brexit is clear.

Markets dislocating from macro numbers that have been awful across the world and with a major risk event coming ... not for me not for my taste. Late, suckers rally on greed in the making and as it always happen in this circumstances there will end up in tears for the laggers buying at the highs ...

Not interested whatsoever to even consider trading the break and actually actively looking for positions to fade on the smallest failure ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,850
  • Jun 6, 2016 1:21pm Jun 6, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting The Fool
it's sarcasm....last day today for Fedheads to talk in the media prior to the Jun FOMC....anything but dove noises from JY will be a surprise...markets do not believe the Fed will hike until after the Nov elections
same old shit - Fed doves Lockhart and Yellen make the cooing sounds....no hikes in June, never were going to be anyway on the Brexit vote eve. Data dependent. If the brexit goes thru and markets are rocked in the weeks following, well there goes July. September is really getting too close to the November election (11/8) and the Nov meeting is just 6 days before - too close. So, maybe December. If it be Bremain, they will probably hit it in July....

...does it matter, anyway?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,851
  • Jun 6, 2016 1:25pm Jun 6, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting sisse
Markets dislocating from macro numbers that have been awful across the world and with a major risk event coming ... not for me not for my taste. Late, suckers rally on greed in the making and as it always happen in this circumstances there will end up in tears for the laggers buying at the highs ... Not interested whatsoever to even consider trading the break and actually actively looking for positions to fade on the smallest failure ... sisse
well, bad to be a late sucker jumping on the rally at the top - also bad to be early sucker trying to trade the break too early (moi).
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,852
  • Jun 6, 2016 1:30pm Jun 6, 2016 1:30pm
Data dependent or Dow dependent? We are just 400 pts off the DOW ath, we can get that this week. Might as well, right?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,853
  • Jun 6, 2016 1:32pm Jun 6, 2016 1:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}s...... ...does it matter, anyway?
To be honest. Yes and a lot this time. For 2 particular reasons:

  1. FED not hiking till the end of the year on the one side will imply a major risk event (brexit?) and collapse of macro numbers across the world. That matter because recession 2.0 will hit Europe and will drag down the US to standstill but this time Emergent economies are already in free fall so all on board ....
  2. From a strictly monetary policy point of view if the FED kicks the can that long you can be certain that we will witness a major collapse in CBs policies across the world and (de)inflation will take over the word with severe consequences at all levels.

I wouldn't take lightly a scenario like this. The risk not only outweighs the benefits (if any?) but the cost of losing monetary policy options with the rest of the word in stagnation / recession and negative rates its a recipe for disaster and it will make look the 2008 financial crisis soft in comparison...

I don't think will see it. The FED and any economists and policy maker know it. They are just managing expectation for June and they have done it flawlessly as all markets are afloat before the potential risk event ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,854
  • Jun 6, 2016 1:52pm Jun 6, 2016 1:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, bad to be a late sucker jumping on the rally at the top - also bad to be early sucker trying to trade the break too early (moi).
TA wise (S&P) ATH are naked now. 2105.xx is the rain maker(flip mid term) for the rest of the year. To the top side greed, air and magic lines (above ATH). To the other side a couple hundred points to 1925.x (which is steel support now). The lows of the year just got locked for now after this break.

FA wise all sell for now ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,855
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:06pm Jun 6, 2016 2:06pm
ahem
  • #140,856
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:32pm Jun 6, 2016 2:32pm
Roll play for today in Euro which is perfect timing to open 10th and last iteration in this set to get in synch with the market:


+++++Opening table for the 10th Iteration to get in synch with the market short term+++++


--> Question 10: ECB settle, FED settle, no news on sight how would you trade the next leg?

This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper and very simple R:R. It's titled: Did I learn anything ? ...

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.137x++++


--> Choose your poison ASAP for the roll. Any lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing. Winner takes all.

3 options for this simple iteration. No time limit for longs or shorts:

-> LMT BUY 1.137x -> TP1 => 1.147x | STP => 1.133x | max r:r -=> 2:1


No touch (for 3 days) | 1.133x or 1.142x | max r:r -=> 2:1


-> LMT SELL 1.137x -> TP1 => 1.127x | STP => 1.142x | max r:r -=> 2:1



We'll wrap up the 10 iteration set with this....so GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,857
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:39pm Jun 6, 2016 2:39pm
No touch (for 3 days) | 1.133x or 1.142x | max r:r -=> 2:1

Did I learn anything ? I doubt

P.S.: if I HAD TO i would go for -> LMT SELL 1.137x -> TP1 => 1.127x | STP => 1.142x | max r:r -=> 2:1
  • #140,858
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:43pm Jun 6, 2016 2:43pm
Quoting sisse
TA wise (S&P) ATH are naked now. 2105.xx is the rain maker(flip mid term) for the rest of the year
Brexit the next best chance for a good dose of volatility, probably a toss-up - US equities I will not be surprised if they rally right up to Brexit vote day, take out SnP 2,150 maybe 2,200, Dow to 19,000, etc. Fed confirms dovish bent every chance they get, at some point the boy who cries "Wolf!" is no longer heard. In July we have the Jul FOMC combo w/ the RNC National Convention, which could be a chaotic scene. Pretty much Brexit or bust for me, now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,859
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:47pm Jun 6, 2016 2:47pm
Staying out..in neutral outlook short-term..close to the flip..should wait for the extremes.
  • #140,860
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:51pm Jun 6, 2016 2:51pm
-> LMT SELL 1.137x -> TP1 => 1.127x | STP => 1.142x | max r:r -=> 2:1
Nice rejection at resistance also Dax looks bullish.
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