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USD/RUB

  • #681
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:57am Jun 6, 2016 9:57am
Quoting manosk
{quote} great thanks, let me check it out.
Do you remember what you should see FORTS?

D.P.
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  • #682
  • Jun 6, 2016 10:06am Jun 6, 2016 10:06am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Do you remember what you should see FORTS? D.P.
FORTS is the derivatives market in Moscow? What should I see. I was checking the conditions but didnt see anything specific
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #683
  • Jun 6, 2016 10:22am Jun 6, 2016 10:22am
Quoting manosk
{quote} FORTS is the derivatives market in Moscow? What should I see. I was checking the conditions but didnt see anything specific
I am interested in futures. That is why I have confused you. Sorry.
FORTS is the derivative session. The most interesting conditions are in FORTS - 30 copecks/contract if traded intraday.

D.P.
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  • #684
  • Jun 6, 2016 10:26am Jun 6, 2016 10:26am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I have been trading it actively for years now. I have to say that it takes time to learn its peculiarities but it is well worth it if you have good fundamental reasons behind it. For example I was bullish on oil and I decided to play by shorting USD/RUB in January. So I compounded the appreciation of oil by collecting interest through the big interest rate differential between USD and RUB. It is a great trade. But yes it is volatile and the spread is wide so you need to know what you are doing. Critical is not to over-extend your account,...
The last time oil at around $50 is Jan. 2ish, Mar. 10ish, Apr. 2ish 2015. USD/RUB were trading at around 60 ish or 56ish, so I would think price is trying to head that way.

However, the correlation to oil will be put on the back burner these days because interest rate changes maybe coming. I think Feds raising rates and Russian Feds lowering rates will impact this pair a lot more than oil price.

I opened a position in Aug. 2015 and left it there since. The rollover interest collected is really really nice if you can stomach and ride out the draw-downs. I can only find one US broker that allows you trade USD?RUB and they offer 1:5 leverage.

My broker's spread is 11-20 pips during day and they widen it to 50-100+ pips after US market closes to prevent any surprises...
  • #685
  • Jun 6, 2016 10:40am Jun 6, 2016 10:40am
Quoting lsg168
{quote} The last time oil at around $50 is Jan. 2ish, Mar. 10ish, Apr. 2ish 2015. USD/RUB were trading at around 60 ish or 56ish, so I would think price is trying to head that way. However, the correlation to oil will be put on the back burner these days because interest rate changes maybe coming. I think Feds raising rates and Russian Feds lowering rates will impact this pair a lot more than oil price. I opened a position in Aug. 2015 and left it there since. The rollover interest collected is really really nice if you can stomach and ride out...
I agree with you on the direction, 56ish would be great but my realistic target is low 60s. You are right about other factors impacting the cross. Obviously with NFP on Friday things are a bit murky for the US rates, we will see what Yellen says today. Concerning Russian rates coming down, yes for sure if oil stays at these levels sustainably we will start seeing rates decreasing but I am not so concerned about that. It will be a sign of confidence for the currency.

I dont trade with US brokers, I trade with Swiss so I cannot offer any info here. But even in my case the margin requirements are heavy (4%) and they trade only till 5:30 pm Central European time when the Russian market closes as well.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #686
  • Edited 11:06am Jun 6, 2016 10:45am | Edited 11:06am
News on Ruble

http://ru.investing.com/news/%D0%BD%...0%B8%20-232198

http://ru.investing.com/analysis/%D0...0%B5-200134096


Quoting manosk
{quote}oil stays at these levels sustainably we will start seeing rates decreasing but I am not so concerned about that
I think, decreasing is not planned for now.
it will weaken rub.

Market is awaiting for Yellen's speech.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #687
  • Jun 7, 2016 2:14am Jun 7, 2016 2:14am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
News on Ruble http://ru.investing.com/news/%D0%BD%...0%B8%20-232198 http://ru.investing.com/analysis/%D0...0%B5-200134096...
cool thanks

I think this guy of Gazprombank, Maxim Petronevich knows what he is talking about. So no action till end of July from CB. In the meantime we should see if all things go well 60.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #688
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:29am Jun 7, 2016 5:29am
Whoever is short USDRUB needs to watch 64.69 on the daily chart (300 MA). Twice this moving average has crushed of dreams for the bears on the 29th of April and the 17th of May with strong bounces. There wont be any downside unless this level is broken decisively.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #689
  • Jun 7, 2016 6:58am Jun 7, 2016 6:58am
Quoting manosk
Whoever is short USDRUB needs to watch 64.69 on the daily chart (300 MA). Twice this moving average has crushed of dreams for the bears on the 29th of April and the 17th of May with strong bounces. There wont be any downside unless this level is broken decisively.
First time fair value of USDRUB below 60.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #690
  • Jun 8, 2016 5:30am Jun 8, 2016 5:30am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
News on Ruble http://ru.investing.com/news/%D0%BD%...0%B8%20-232198 http://ru.investing.com/analysis/%D0...0%B5-200134096...
DP,

will there be repatriation of funds that might affect the USD/RUB rate this month? I had read something that companies need to pay taxes or something like that in June that should push the rate down.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #691
  • Edited 7:17am Jun 8, 2016 7:05am | Edited 7:17am
For those short USD/RUB, taking all other factors into consideration (oil, USD index, etc) the only support I see technically at this moment for the cross is at 63.2XX. Nothing between now and then and I need to note that finally on the daily chart USDRUB broke below the 300 DMA, and there is easy room till 60.3XX so hang tight and let it work for you
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #692
  • Edited 12:20pm Jun 8, 2016 10:32am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} DP, will there be repatriation of funds that might affect the USD/RUB rate this month? I had read something that companies need to pay taxes or something like that in June that should push the rate down.
I hardly believe that there will be reducing the rate. 11% stays, I think.
But there is probabilty the rate will be reduced next month.
Quoting manosk
For those short USD/RUB, taking all other factors into consideration (oil, USD index, etc) the only support I see technically at this moment for the cross is at 63.2XX. Nothing between now and then and I need to note that finally on the daily chart USDRUB broke below the 300 DMA, and there is easy room till 60.3XX so hang tight and let it work for you

I think, we need to watch for the 60-61 area to set the buy limit orders.

Best
D.P.

P.S. I see there is a rationale to try buying at 60.47
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #693
  • Jun 8, 2016 12:49pm Jun 8, 2016 12:49pm
News on Rub

http://www.forexpf.ru/news/2016/06/0...medvezhya.html

http://ru.investing.com/news/%D0%BD%...D%D1%8B-232604

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #694
  • Jun 9, 2016 2:21am Jun 9, 2016 2:21am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I hardly believe that there will be reducing the rate. 11% stays, I think. But there is probabilty the rate will be reduced next month. {quote} I think, we need to watch for the 60-61 area to set the buy limit orders. Best D.P. P.S. I see there is a rationale to try buying at 60.47 {image}
So I see with you at 60.49 a potential level to close shorts, but I also see in the charts an extension to 56 is possible and it would not surprise me (based on the daily chart) although a potential hurdle would be the 100 MA on the weekly which stands right now at 58.40. I have come to respect the MAs of the weekly charts in USD/RUB. There is still big divergence from fair value which stands today at 58.27!
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #695
  • Jun 9, 2016 9:21am Jun 9, 2016 9:21am
Quoting manosk
{quote} So I see with you at 60.49 a potential level to close shorts, but I also see in the charts an extension to 56 is possible and it would not surprise me (based on the daily chart) although a potential hurdle would be the 100 MA on the weekly which stands right now at 58.40. I have come to respect the MAs of the weekly charts in USD/RUB. There is still big divergence from fair value which stands today at 58.27!
Sure
But there is probability to go even lower.

Beanks say 11% might be lowered by 0,5%.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #696
  • Jun 10, 2016 5:39am Jun 10, 2016 5:39am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Sure But there is probability to go even lower. Beanks say 11% might be lowered by 0,5%. Best D.P.
Russian CB cuts rates by 0.5% to 10.5%. I read it as positive for RUB. It means that they have confidence in the economy that it is normalizing again. Note that these high interest rates have been in place since Aug 2015
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #697
  • Jun 10, 2016 6:01am Jun 10, 2016 6:01am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Russian CB cuts rates by 0.5% to 10.5%. I read it as positive for RUB. It means that they have confidence in the economy that it is normalizing again. Note that these high interest rates have been in place since Aug 2015
50 bp is ok. What is interesting now is what to expect for the closest months.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #698
  • Jun 10, 2016 6:07am Jun 10, 2016 6:07am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} 50 bp is ok. What is interesting now is what to expect for the closest months.
Good point. I think like the Fed the Russian CB didn't want to do anything because the fundamentals haven't changed, except for oil that has recovered (but had already been budgeted so nothing really), but it was an important signal of confidence in the re-balancing of the economy following sanctions and the collapse of oil prices. I dont think that we will see any cuts in the next couple of months unless something significant happens, i.e. oil skyrockets to 100...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #699
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:21pm Jun 11, 2016 3:21pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Good point. I think like the Fed the Russian CB didn't want to do anything because the fundamentals haven't changed, except for oil that has recovered (but had already been budgeted so nothing really), but it was an important signal of confidence in the re-balancing of the economy following sanctions and the collapse of oil prices. I dont think that we will see any cuts in the next couple of months unless something significant happens, i.e. oil skyrockets to 100...
charts overview
12H, D, W, respectively

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-11_23-18-56.jpg Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-11_23-24-48.jpg Size: 456 KB
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  • #700
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:12am Jun 13, 2016 2:12am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} charts overview 12H, D, W, respectively Best D.P. {image} {image} {image}
nicely put. Totally agree
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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