Hunting High and Low
USD/RUB 6 replies
Rub's accountability 184 replies
Which brokers pay big swap for USD/RUB short position? 8 replies
Shorting Eur/Rub 3 replies
Reliable broker for USD/RUB 26 replies
Disliked{quote} FORTS is the derivatives market in Moscow? What should I see. I was checking the conditions but didnt see anything specificIgnored
Disliked{quote} I have been trading it actively for years now. I have to say that it takes time to learn its peculiarities but it is well worth it if you have good fundamental reasons behind it. For example I was bullish on oil and I decided to play by shorting USD/RUB in January. So I compounded the appreciation of oil by collecting interest through the big interest rate differential between USD and RUB. It is a great trade. But yes it is volatile and the spread is wide so you need to know what you are doing. Critical is not to over-extend your account,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} The last time oil at around $50 is Jan. 2ish, Mar. 10ish, Apr. 2ish 2015. USD/RUB were trading at around 60 ish or 56ish, so I would think price is trying to head that way. However, the correlation to oil will be put on the back burner these days because interest rate changes maybe coming. I think Feds raising rates and Russian Feds lowering rates will impact this pair a lot more than oil price. I opened a position in Aug. 2015 and left it there since. The rollover interest collected is really really nice if you can stomach and ride out...Ignored
Disliked{quote}oil stays at these levels sustainably we will start seeing rates decreasing but I am not so concerned about thatIgnored
DislikedNews on Ruble http://ru.investing.com/news/%D0%BD%...0%B8%20-232198 http://ru.investing.com/analysis/%D0...0%B5-200134096...Ignored
DislikedWhoever is short USDRUB needs to watch 64.69 on the daily chart (300 MA). Twice this moving average has crushed of dreams for the bears on the 29th of April and the 17th of May with strong bounces. There wont be any downside unless this level is broken decisively.Ignored
DislikedNews on Ruble http://ru.investing.com/news/%D0%BD%...0%B8%20-232198 http://ru.investing.com/analysis/%D0...0%B5-200134096...Ignored
Disliked{quote} DP, will there be repatriation of funds that might affect the USD/RUB rate this month? I had read something that companies need to pay taxes or something like that in June that should push the rate down.Ignored
DislikedFor those short USD/RUB, taking all other factors into consideration (oil, USD index, etc) the only support I see technically at this moment for the cross is at 63.2XX. Nothing between now and then and I need to note that finally on the daily chart USDRUB broke below the 300 DMA, and there is easy room till 60.3XX so hang tight and let it work for youIgnored
Disliked{quote} I hardly believe that there will be reducing the rate. 11% stays, I think. But there is probabilty the rate will be reduced next month. {quote} I think, we need to watch for the 60-61 area to set the buy limit orders. Best D.P. P.S. I see there is a rationale to try buying at 60.47 {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} So I see with you at 60.49 a potential level to close shorts, but I also see in the charts an extension to 56 is possible and it would not surprise me (based on the daily chart) although a potential hurdle would be the 100 MA on the weekly which stands right now at 58.40. I have come to respect the MAs of the weekly charts in USD/RUB. There is still big divergence from fair value which stands today at 58.27!Ignored
Disliked{quote} Sure But there is probability to go even lower. Beanks say 11% might be lowered by 0,5%. Best D.P.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Russian CB cuts rates by 0.5% to 10.5%. I read it as positive for RUB. It means that they have confidence in the economy that it is normalizing again. Note that these high interest rates have been in place since Aug 2015Ignored
Disliked{quote} 50 bp is ok. What is interesting now is what to expect for the closest months.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Good point. I think like the Fed the Russian CB didn't want to do anything because the fundamentals haven't changed, except for oil that has recovered (but had already been budgeted so nothing really), but it was an important signal of confidence in the re-balancing of the economy following sanctions and the collapse of oil prices. I dont think that we will see any cuts in the next couple of months unless something significant happens, i.e. oil skyrockets to 100...Ignored