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  • #1,069,301
  • Jun 5, 2016 11:05pm Jun 5, 2016 11:05pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} sorry i never touch scalps of people on eu i am expecting a drop to 1.13 then a bounce to 1.1430 then a big time drop back to 1.12 area
cancelling my 1.13 tp, i think it might go lower before any bounce
  • #1,069,302
  • Jun 5, 2016 11:48pm Jun 5, 2016 11:48pm
If you don't know what a liquidity vacuum fade is, PM me and I can answer.

One of the highest probability trades you can find.

Always remember, enter part of your position at a decent price and the bigger portion at the best price.

Recently ive become a stop run fader. Meaning I place my entries where I think the stops are.

If I'm not filled, so be it. At least I am in part of the trade. Upside potential here is 8-12% return on initial position.

Downside is 4-5%


If it drops to 105 and all positions are triggered I'll be floating a 17% drawdown.

But if it bounces back to 109 return is about 40-50%.

Yes I'm a high risk trader when I'm running a fat profit for the year.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,069,303
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:26am Jun 6, 2016 12:26am
Sell to the level of 1.1240, then 1.1520 with a view to buy.
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  • #1,069,304
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:40am Jun 6, 2016 12:40am
The EURUSD breaks above 1.1300 level, it could go higher, towards the 1.1400. Above that level, the 1.1500 level could act as its next support.
  • #1,069,305
  • Edited 3:21am Jun 6, 2016 12:50am | Edited 3:21am
My Intraday Setup

what a nfp rally! is like starting the week from scratch :-)
bad NFP, weak dollar, small correction, => E/U aim high
Consolidation ahead Yellen

- monthly pivot at 1.1279 had a tentative to stop NFP (TP/SL pending orders triggered) but only monthly-mid 1.1357 did it;
- resistence zone: 1.1429-42 monthly, weekly & daily R1
- support zone: 1.1270-83 monthly, weekly & daily pivots
- Fibo's 61.8 for the NFP rally is @1.1282 (support zone)

Fundies:
- Rosengren: there should be enough growth in the economy to secure gradual rate hikes, if the economy continues to improve gradually
- bad economy news = USdollar weakens = E/U up... at least it should!
- Yellen is about to speak also on global economy and monetary policy, she will probably adjust the speech due that NFP 38k (lowest since 2010-2011)
if not taking out the hike on the table at least she'll hesitate or accentuating Feds determination to go on with the macro plan

Greeeeen to all!
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  • #1,069,306
  • Jun 6, 2016 1:18am Jun 6, 2016 1:18am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
If you don't know what a liquidity vacuum fade is, PM me and I can answer. One of the highest probability trades you can find. Always remember, enter part of your position at a decent price and the bigger portion at the best price. Recently ive become a stop run fader. Meaning I place my entries where I think the stops are. If I'm not filled, so be it. At least I am in part of the trade. Upside potential here is 8-12% return on initial position. Downside is 4-5% If it drops to 105 and all positions are triggered I'll be floating a 17% drawdown....
90% risk entry
  • #1,069,307
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:01am Jun 6, 2016 2:01am
eruusd short @ 13376 lookng for a drop into 12500 zone before bounce
  • #1,069,308
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:21am Jun 6, 2016 2:21am
This shitty Friday NFP could have been the turning point for the US dollar.
The extremely disappointing NFP on May proved for many that
market expectations for Feds rate hike in the upcoming months had been exaggerated
and it pushed dollar to the point from the start of May.

...on the other hand, important to see if the "disappointing" NFP on Friday was a one-off, an anomaly or a broader weakness

If Yellen will insist that NFP was just an one-off result but the whole economy is still promising we will have a twin drop on E/U next to the rally

Any call before Yellen risky !
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  • #1,069,309
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:32am Jun 6, 2016 2:32am
Quoting Alros
Sell to the level of 1.1240, then 1.1520 with a view to buy. {image}
I think it will hold @ 1.1300 the 50-day moving average with a clear road up to 1.1460 a daily resistance. I hope this week before Yellen on the 15th of June.
  • #1,069,310
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:08am Jun 6, 2016 3:08am
Why didnt it test 1.1300 area?
  • #1,069,311
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:09am Jun 6, 2016 3:09am
buying at highs is so stupid.
  • #1,069,312
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:15am Jun 6, 2016 3:15am
Quoting Jonstaples
{quote} I think it will hold @ 1.1300 the 50-day moving average with a clear road up to 1.1460 a daily resistance. I hope this week before Yellen on the 15th of June.
if bulls let it go down I may close at .1317
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,069,313
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:42am Jun 6, 2016 3:42am
Quoting TudorIoan
This shitty Friday NFP could have been the turning point for the US dollar. The extremely disappointing NFP on May proved for many that market expectations for Feds rate hike in the upcoming months had been exaggerated and it pushed dollar to the point from the start of May. ...on the other hand, important to see if the "disappointing" NFP on Friday was a one-off, an anomaly or a broader weakness If Yellen will insist that NFP was just an one-off result but the whole economy is still promising we will have a twin drop on E/U next to the rally ...
Quoting arash66110
Non of them said there should be a rise, they say if data support... and we know it will not meet their condition.It is just a manipulation. Sooner or Later june hike will be faded
Quoting arash66110
Very decent levels for long term traders to 1.16
  • #1,069,314
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:45am Jun 6, 2016 3:45am
Quoting TudorIoan
This shitty Friday NFP could have been the turning point for the US dollar. The extremely disappointing NFP on May proved for many that market expectations for Feds rate hike in the upcoming months had been exaggerated and it pushed dollar to the point from the start of May. ...on the other hand, important to see if the "disappointing" NFP on Friday was a one-off, an anomaly or a broader weakness If Yellen will insist that NFP was just an one-off result but the whole economy is still promising we will have a twin drop on E/U next to the rally ...

Be carfull becouse yellen can say this : "OK so we got bad job report,AND THATS NORMAL BECOUSE our un. rate is 4,7% that means full emplyement " we are ready to do the move.
  • #1,069,315
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:58am Jun 6, 2016 3:58am
no hike this year.
even there is no plan to hike in 2017.
only bullshit and manipulation like Brexit.
we may see some correction but the trend is up 1.16+
  • #1,069,316
  • Edited 4:17am Jun 6, 2016 4:02am | Edited 4:17am
Quoting arash66110
{quote} {quote} {quote}
possible manipulation ...i mean is really weird those disastrous results on economy just before the hike!!!
Quoting arash66110
no hike this year. even there is no plan to hike in 2017. only bullshit and manipulation like Brexit. we may see some correction but the trend is up 1.16+
even you're right ...is important what traders really believe ...even they swallow the manipulation
Quoting Anubisval
{quote} Be carfull becouse yellen can say this : "OK so we got bad job report,AND THATS NORMAL BECOUSE our un. rate is 4,7% that means full emplyement " we are ready to do the move.
Yep, i said that ...I do expect Yellen to say that ...i mean to find some words to diminish effects on the bad NFP
And I think she will be ambiguous like: ...is bad, but no so bad, ...we'll have the hike, but maybe not quite in June ...we expect to see more on economy, but we expect improvement next week as a confirmation for the rates to be raised ...bla-bal-bla...
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  • #1,069,317
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:19am Jun 6, 2016 4:19am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} possible manipulation ...i mean is really weird those disastrous results on economy just before the hike!!! {quote} even you're right ...is important what traders really believe ...even they swallow the manipulation {quote} Yep, i said that ...I do expect Yellen to say that ...i mean to find some words to diminish effects on the bad NFP And I think she will be ambiguous like: ...is bad, but no so bad, ...we'll have the hike, but maybe not quite in June ...we expect to see more on economy, but we expect improvement next week as a confirmation for the rates to be raised ...bla-bal-bla...
big boys know what is going on even bond traders ...
but they just do not tell you the truth. they speak like fed for public
  • #1,069,318
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:21am Jun 6, 2016 4:21am
Afternoon,

Likely move is going to happen when US comes online. So close (in terms of levels) to break upside so i think 1.1355/75 will be tested well enough.

Take care.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #1,069,319
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:26am Jun 6, 2016 4:26am
Yellen will speak and we will read or we will watch ? is live also? i believe not .. and iff is just writed down on fed page the robots will open position way fast than a us all . so be carfull not go with first move.
I'm short till 1,1300 after buy there and wait 1,16

Happy trade all !
  • #1,069,320
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:30am Jun 6, 2016 4:30am
Quoting arash66110
{quote} big boys know what is going on even bond traders ... but they just do not tell you the truth. they speak like fed for public
I agree. But the market moves on their words even they try to manipulate.
So, you follow the lies, you follow the price, you follow the money, ...that's a way (one of them) to make money in trading !

Quoting Anubisval
Yellen will speak and we will read or we will watch ? is live also? i believe not .. and iff is just writed down on fed page the robots will open position way fast than a us all . so be carfull not go with first move. I'm short till 1,1300 after buy there and wait 1,16 Happy trade all !
Great, Anubis! You have got the best guessing feeling that NFP will came out bad. Maybe you'll be right on that bearish position too
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