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  • #1,068,921
  • Jun 1, 2016 11:28am Jun 1, 2016 11:28am
Quoting OnlineAddict
Now back above 1180 for a while, but we will see 1118(and less) tomorrow, I think.
Cards could be reshuffled by ECB tomorrow, esp. technicals on lower TF's, don't forget that. Best thing would be to stay aside for the rest of the week; ECB tomorrow and NFP friday will be big volatility and unpredictable. If NFP is disappointing (which could well be around 100k), the market will turn against the dollar because it's one of the main indicators for a rate hike in next 2 month.
  • #1,068,922
  • Jun 1, 2016 11:34am Jun 1, 2016 11:34am
Quoting .vor-
{quote} Cards could be reshuffled by ECB tomorrow, esp. technicals on lower TF's, don't forget that. Best thing would be to stay aside for the rest of the week; ECB tomorrow and NFP friday will be big volatility and unpredictable. If NFP is disappointing (which could well be around 100k), the market will turn against the dollar because it's one of the main indicators for a rate hike in next 2 month.
Its always safer to stay aside during such days...I will have a tight SL on my short, so I won't risk much...I either lose 10+- pips or get 100.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,068,923
  • Jun 1, 2016 11:35am Jun 1, 2016 11:35am
Quoting macsoj
China economy is affecting euro indirectly...
PBoC is affecting euro directly.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,068,924
  • Jun 1, 2016 11:35am Jun 1, 2016 11:35am
It seems there is a shortage of EUR. Hopefully, Draghi will print some tomorrow.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,068,925
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:10pm Jun 1, 2016 12:10pm
Quoting .vor-
{quote} Cards could be reshuffled by ECB tomorrow, esp. technicals on lower TF's, don't forget that. Best thing would be to stay aside for the rest of the week; ECB tomorrow and NFP friday will be big volatility and unpredictable. If NFP is disappointing (which could well be around 100k), the market will turn against the dollar because it's one of the main indicators for a rate hike in next 2 month.
ECB will do nothing tomorrow but the "nothing" will be wrapped in dovish comments because EU economy is still balancing on the edge of recession. It will send EUR down. Who is buying EUR now the one will be probably crying tomorrow.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,068,926
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:28pm Jun 1, 2016 12:28pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} ECB will do nothing tomorrow but the "nothing" will be wrapped in dovish comments because EU economy is still balancing on the edge of recession. It will send EUR down. Who is buying EUR now the one will be probably crying tomorrow.
I like a little risk.. My SL is my friend... I am long if today end like this nice day candle and tomorrow confirms the support. This one is too technical to let go imo..
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I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,068,927
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:30pm Jun 1, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} ECB will do nothing tomorrow but the "nothing" will be wrapped in dovish comments because EU economy is still balancing on the edge of recession. It will send EUR down. Who is buying EUR now the one will be probably crying tomorrow.
I'd wait tomorrow lunch to decide..... Logically there will be shock moves don't be surprised if this time tomorrow the price is exactly as now....
I'll review my ideas and post if s.o. interested.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,068,928
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:31pm Jun 1, 2016 12:31pm
Closed two UJ's for +90, holding 2 currently +340... Tried an EJ long in conjunction with UJ bounce from 109.05... Probs should have closed one here... I had the level never mind.
wait to see what tomorrow brings, all trades locked in profit, today is my monthly end to trading technically.. I'm above target if I close them all now :s what to do eh
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  • #1,068,929
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:35pm Jun 1, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} ECB will do nothing tomorrow but the "nothing" will be wrapped in dovish comments because EU economy is still balancing on the edge of recession. It will send EUR down. Who is buying EUR now the one will be probably crying tomorrow.
Wouldn't count on that, imagine if ECB is dovish and sends EUR down and FED raise rates in June or July... E/U will be on a too low level for Draghi which doesn't help them at all. Around 1.10-1.15 is pretty much ok for the ECB and if they expect a rate hike from FED really soon, I think they will be more hawkish (German and French data is good enough) in their statements and keep EUR where it is / give support prior to a rate hike in the US.
Also if the ECB is more dovish and EUR will go down, it becomes even harder for FED to raise rates, because the USD would get really strong and expensive, china also loses heavily against the dollar atm and in future, so more dollar upside expected -> bad for FED.

Anyway I don't expect large upsets from ECB tomorrow; IMO nfp this friday is faaar more important and will bring large movements.
  • #1,068,931
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:41pm Jun 1, 2016 12:41pm
Do we think we will see the EUR/USD break the 1.1200 level ?
  • #1,068,932
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:50pm Jun 1, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} I like a little risk.. My SL is my friend... I am long if today end like this nice day candle and tomorrow confirms the support. This one is too technical to let go imo.. {image}
If you have opened your long an hour ago, I understand why you keep it open but I would like to know why somebody opens his long just now.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,068,933
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:53pm Jun 1, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} If you have opened your long an hour ago, I understand why you keep it open but I would like to know why somebody opens his long just now.
how profitable are you?
  • #1,068,934
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:57pm Jun 1, 2016 12:57pm
Quoting .vor-
{quote} Wouldn't count on that, imagine if ECB is dovish and sends EUR down and FED raise rates in June or July... E/U will be on a too low level for Draghi which doesn't help them at all. Around 1.10-1.15 is pretty much ok for the ECB and if they expect a rate hike from FED really soon, I think they will be more hawkish (German and French data is good enough) in their statements and keep EUR where it is / give support prior to a rate hike in the US. Also if the ECB is more dovish and EUR will go down, it becomes even harder for FED to raise rates,...
EU economy is export-oriented so it needs weak EUR. US economy is based on changing of small green pieces of paper for real foreign goods so it needs strong USD. China does not want USD to be strong because of huge pile of debts in USD. That is why PBoC is selling USD to support yuan and buying other majors to keep its foreign currency reserves steady. I agree that NFP are more important than ECB.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,068,935
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:09pm Jun 1, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} EU economy is export-oriented so it needs weak EUR. US economy is based on changing of small green pieces of paper for real foreign goods so it needs strong USD. China does not want USD to be strong because of huge pile of debts in USD. That is why PBoC is selling USD to support yuan and buying other majors to keep its foreign currency reserves steady. I agree that NFP are more important than ECB.
That's true, but as you can take intel out of all ECB and FED statements over the last year, a EUR below 1.10 is too weak for EU and ECB and the USD so high is too expensive for FED. Btw E/U trading around 1.05-1.08 was one of the main reasons for FED to not raise rates earlier last year like they said in every meeting, even when NFP had incredible good numbers and the market and economy was so ready for the hike (July-September last year).
  • #1,068,936
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:17pm Jun 1, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} how profitable are you?
I do not buy on tops and do not sell in dips so the answer is obvious.
BTW, have a look at the chart right now.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,068,937
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:23pm Jun 1, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} I do not buy on tops and do not sell in dips so the answer is obvious. BTW, have a look at the chart right now.
the answer isn't obvious, also whats your point about the chart now?
  • #1,068,938
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:25pm Jun 1, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting .vor-
{quote} That's true, but as you can take intel out of all ECB and FED statements over the last year, a EUR below 1.10 is too weak for EU and ECB and the USD so high is too expensive for FED. Btw E/U trading around 1.05-1.08 was one of the main reasons for FED to not raise rates earlier last year like they said in every meeting, even when NFP had incredible good numbers and the market and economy was so ready for the hike (July-September last year).
Let's say that 1.1 is a political consensus between EU and USA. That is why I was laughing when some guys posted here "we are going to 1.2" when EURUSD was above 1.16. But in spite of that we will probably see 1.05 this year.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,068,939
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:26pm Jun 1, 2016 1:26pm
Not enough volumes to judge anything guys... It seems the scalpers are supporting at 1184... Used to be a scalper and its very nice with very high risk... Now I am working on my long-term trading skills..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,068,940
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:31pm Jun 1, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Let's say that 1.1 is a political consensus between EU and USA. That is why I was laughing when some guys posted here "we are going to 1.2" when EURUSD was above 1.16. But in spite of that we will probably see 1.05 this year.
we are going to 1.2, technically anyway, if it becomes invalidated then so what... 1.22 before 0.8x anyway

Also when was the last hike in US?
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