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  • #97,521
  • May 31, 2016 7:35am May 31, 2016 7:35am
So basically all the data is supposedly pointing to a 0.8 to 1.1 gdp figure tomorrow well above the ff prediction. Even AU banks are changing their prediction. If true expect a massive overraction 150 pips up.
  • #97,522
  • May 31, 2016 6:14pm May 31, 2016 6:14pm
Quoting redalert
So basically all the data is supposedly pointing to a 0.8 to 1.1 gdp figure tomorrow well above the ff prediction. Even AU banks are changing their prediction. If true expect a massive overraction 150 pips up.
Could you please elaborate on what 'all the data' is in this instance - ie specific examples?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,523
  • May 31, 2016 6:38pm May 31, 2016 6:38pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Could you please elaborate on what 'all the data' is in this instance - ie specific examples?
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/au...stopper-2016-5

Sorry I should of included that in my initial post.
  • #97,524
  • May 31, 2016 6:51pm May 31, 2016 6:51pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} http://www.businessinsider.com.au/au...stopper-2016-5 Sorry I should of included that in my initial post.
Nice abs on those hockey players.

That would indeed cause a over reaction, considering that even bad news usually lifts the AUD.
  • #97,525
  • May 31, 2016 7:09pm May 31, 2016 7:09pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} http://www.businessinsider.com.au/au...stopper-2016-5 Sorry I should of included that in my initial post.
Thanks. I don't fully understand where they've gotten their data from but note that their own article states that 70% of the data won't be known until the release later today so they must be assuming that the 30% is above expectation so all of it will be.

I also don't know where you've gotten your 150 pips estimate from eg December 2015 exceeded expectations and I can only see about a 20 pip spike before a fall (admittedly not as big actual vs forecast difference as what the article is spruiking). Secondly 150 pips from current levels would put us above the 17 May high so I think it very unlikely.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,526
  • May 31, 2016 8:25pm May 31, 2016 8:25pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks. I don't fully understand where they've gotten their data from but note that their own article states that 70% of the data won't be known until the release later today so they must be assuming that the 30% is above expectation so all of it will be. I also don't know where you've gotten your 150 pips estimate from eg December 2015 exceeded expectations and I can only see about a 20 pip spike before a fall (admittedly not as big actual vs forecast difference as what the article is spruiking). Secondly 150 pips from current levels would...
I just thought 150 was a good number, no particular reason I chose that number.... Well kind of... looking at the data from yesterday spiking 40 pips and it was nothing that important (although 'red' news) I thought 150 is a good number for the bulls to run too considering all the doom and gloom.

The government is also looking for a good number to promote their 'innovation' agenda and jobs and growth blah blah. The finance minister was on TV this morning indicating the figure should be good due to all the increase in exports (I'd say more a hangover from the recent Chinese government stimulus).
  • #97,527
  • May 31, 2016 8:36pm May 31, 2016 8:36pm
As expected, AU Q1 always better than usual . start to short aud from this level 0.7280
  • #97,528
  • May 31, 2016 8:39pm May 31, 2016 8:39pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} Yup, it's all rigged, didn't you get the memo? and tomorrow GDP, AUD will go higher.
Hope you made some money.
  • #97,529
  • May 31, 2016 9:03pm May 31, 2016 9:03pm
Quoting AussieForexM
Love how last months "SHOCKING" CPI figures now mean nothing... lol.
What do you mean by "mean nothing" Its fallen 500 pips since then.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,530
  • May 31, 2016 9:06pm May 31, 2016 9:06pm
I think a better shorting opportunity is around 7350. IF that. I feel that were forming an expanding triangle on the bearish end. If not that there may be quite a large retrace. Look at the weekly. ON the weekly we are bullish. and price turned around right at the border of my weekly ascending line. I think we are at least in for a sizable correction. The fundamental divergence in policy is more questionable with the new data and not as certain. Additionally. the article that stated the 1.1 figure it appears no shorts took full heed to it....this is a very delayed and overdue reaction.
  • #97,531
  • May 31, 2016 9:14pm May 31, 2016 9:14pm
#AUDUSD Long so far looking good, trailing stop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 5-31-16.png Size: 120 KB
"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #97,532
  • May 31, 2016 10:17pm May 31, 2016 10:17pm
​hmmm, I little bit of a over reaction. ABS Media comments aren't exactly glowing.

"The economy is showing a transition from mining based investment to production with new engineering construction falling for the tenth consecutive quarter (– 6.4 per cent) and Mining production growing (6.2 per cent). Mining related products significantly contributed to the 4.4 per cent growth in exports.

Service based industries were the other contributor to growth with Finance, Retail trade, Accommodation and food services, and Arts and recreation all increasing. This is consistent with the steady growth in service to households.

Broad based price falls were evident across the economy this quarter, as shown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which fell 0.2 per cent. The GDP price deflator, which shows the overall price movement in the Australian economy, fell 0.6 per cent in the March quarter. The terms of trade fell 1.9 per cent in the March quarter and fell 11.5 per cent through the year. "
  • #97,533
  • May 31, 2016 10:38pm May 31, 2016 10:38pm
GDP SUMMARY

  1. The March quarter 2016 National accounts show the Australian economy growing by 1.1% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms.
  2. The major driver of economic growth this quarter came from Exports which contributed 1.0 percentage point and Household final consumption expenditure contributing 0.4 percentage points.
  3. The increase in Exports is reflected in the growth observed in Mining production (6.2%). Growth was also observed in the service industries of Financial and insurance services (1.8%), Accommodation and food services (1.5%), and Arts and recreation services (0.9%).
  4. The largest detractor from growth was Private gross fixed capital formation which fell 2.2%, this was driven by falls in New engineering construction (-6.4%) and New buildings (-6.9%).
  5. The Terms of trade fell by 1.9%, reflecting a fall in the price of exports relative to the price of imports.

  • #97,534
  • May 31, 2016 10:52pm May 31, 2016 10:52pm
Quoting Bs0008
​hmmm, I little bit of a over reaction. ABS Media comments aren't exactly glowing. "The economy is showing a transition from mining based investment to production with new engineering construction falling for the tenth consecutive quarter ( 6.4 per cent) and Mining production growing (6.2 per cent). Mining related products significantly contributed to the 4.4 per cent growth in exports. Service based industries were the other contributor to growth with Finance, Retail trade, Accommodation and food services, and Arts and recreation all increasing....
Yes.
Absolutely spot on.
  • #97,535
  • May 31, 2016 11:05pm May 31, 2016 11:05pm
Quoting Bs0008
​hmmm, I little bit of a over reaction. ABS Media comments aren't exactly glowing. "The economy is showing a transition from mining based investment to production with new engineering construction falling for the tenth consecutive quarter ( 6.4 per cent) and Mining production growing (6.2 per cent). Mining related products significantly contributed to the 4.4 per cent growth in exports. Service based industries were the other contributor to growth with Finance, Retail trade, Accommodation and food services, and Arts and recreation all increasing....
The over reaction came in nice for another short entry
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,536
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:45am Jun 1, 2016 12:45am
entered long last week at 0.716 closed yesterday at 0.726.re-Opened 8 hr ago at 0.723 and still long..who are with me?
can we get to 0.73?
  • #97,537
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:19am Jun 1, 2016 1:19am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H1.png Size: 190 KB

more likely to touch 0.721
  • #97,538
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:45am Jun 1, 2016 1:45am
For those who want the rundown on the Aussie fundamental scene look no further

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busin...430870e42ff155
  • #97,539
  • Jun 1, 2016 3:32am Jun 1, 2016 3:32am
oz Media can't figure out their economy. Chinese helped their Q1, but can't do it again from April.
  • #97,540
  • Jun 1, 2016 3:50am Jun 1, 2016 3:50am
really good example of how the "Gann Angles" work on the currency markets.​
chart attached has correctly calculated the Gann 45 degree lines (or 1x1 angle)

I have highlighted in blue how the 45 degree line from the HIGH back in APRIL 2010 is still active in producing support and resistance in the AUDUSD six years later...

a bunch of other key 1x1 angles have been included for those who are interested.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD - Time & Price Angle 1x1.PNG Size: 198 KB
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