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Falling Knives

  • #941
  • May 19, 2016 6:39pm May 19, 2016 6:39pm
All of the logic thrown together.

Staying in trend.
Recognizing trend weakness.
Recognizing change in trend.
Wussy close outs in weakness
&&
Dragging the dead.
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  • #942
  • May 20, 2016 12:01am May 20, 2016 12:01am
Magix, hello, pal.

Your boss is doing well.

two questions to ask

1/ what is the logic behind your code entering the market while collecting falling knives?
2/ why are so many falling knives included? how many pips are between them?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #943
  • May 20, 2016 1:30am May 20, 2016 1:30am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Magix, hello, pal. Your boss is doing well. two questions to ask 1/ what is the logic behind your code entering the market while collecting falling knives? 2/ why are so many falling knives included? how many pips are between them? Best D.P.

1/ To determine that both long and medium trends are intact and wait for retraces on a fast trend.

2/ The distance between trades cannot be effectively measured in pips as it will both cost average and pyramid...so, more about the time. There is 120 seconds between trades with a minimum defined 2 pip from first to next trade with the 120 second delay. In this, there is no accounting for slippage, latency and broker delay on fills.

As for the why are there so many falling knives...trading isn't just about when a trade gets entered, but there is heavy importance about when it get's exited as well. There are several pieces of logic to dictate when and how these trades will close, both in and out of profit and of course leaving the big STOP LOSS value.

Each of the Falling knives predecessors had their definite moments in the sun. Times when all looked glorious, but then fell into the eventual pitfalls of a stop loss being hit because of the amount of trades taken in combination with the size of the move against the triggering in trend logic. Thus far, the current version makes the most amount of sense as it works to trigger in trend, allow for retraces on a trend change and will trade like a motherfucker until it either hits a stop loss or combined value profit of a predefined $1.

Yup...Minimum profit on all trades has been set to a single dollar, but is indicator based dynamically. In the same way we delay the trades inside of the grid with a trigger, the closing logic also has the logic of when to exit, but always seeking a minimum profit.

If you check out the myfxbook link or even look through the historical trades in the trade explorer, you will find some cash in just slightly below this value, again due to broker lag and latency...but you will also find where trades close with a combined value of a lot greater.
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  • #944
  • May 20, 2016 1:35am May 20, 2016 1:35am
Pitfalls of the common EA or the average trader are that a single position based on a trade logic must make profit or hit a stop loss.

Success of grid based logics are to understand when to take a primary trade, when to take supplemental trades and then of course the big, when do you push the exit.

Look at the AUDUSD trades for the current sessions and appreciate that the logic has a very clear set of rules on when these things happen.
Given a minimum 2 pip distance between trades as well as a 120 second delay, you can see that there is definitely more to just hammering in trades to any given range or time delay.

With this, all have been traded in what the EA understands as the current long trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #945
  • Edited 9:53am May 20, 2016 8:22am | Edited 9:53am
So, let's begin.

Quoting Magix
{quote} 1/ To determine that both long and medium trends are intact and wait for retraces on a fast trend.
Ok, So, they are both going one direction, then the fast one begins declining to the slow one. The process of declining should be controlled be means of MACD. Right?

What about AO? Momentum?

If So, we should discuss some kind of a different way additionally to yours. have not you forgetten?

Quoting Magix
{quote} 2/ The distance between trades cannot be effectively measured in pips as it will both cost average and pyramid...so, more about the time. There is 120 seconds between trades with a minimum defined 2 pip from first to next trade with the 120 second delay.
Understood. Here I have something to add as well.

Quoting Magix
{quote} There are several pieces of logic to dictate when and how these trades will close, both in and out of profit and of course leaving the big STOP LOSS value.
Definitely.

However, you need a Stop loss, say, if 15% DD is reached.

Quoting Magix
{quote} allow for retraces on a trend change and will trade like a motherfucker until it either hits a stop loss or combined value profit of a predefined $1. Yup...
That is understandable though. I was learning this concept at my experience, but it was a little bit different from yours .

Quoting Magix
{quote} Minimum profit on all trades has been set to a single dollar, but is indicator based dynamically. In the same way we delay the trades inside of the grid with a trigger, the closing logic also has the logic of when to exit, but always seeking a minimum profit.
I have something to say on this subject as well. Are you ready?

Quoting Magix
Pitfalls of the common EA or the average trader are that a single position based on a trade logic must make profit or hit a stop loss. Success of grid based logics are to understand when to take a primary trade, when to take supplemental trades and then of course the big, when do you push the exit. Look at the AUDUSD trades for the current sessions and appreciate that the logic has a very clear set of rules on when these things happen. Given a minimum 2 pip distance between trades as well as a 120 second delay, you can see that there is definitely...
OOOuh, how I know it!
I must say, your method is not compartible to everyone pair in a row, since your algo does not consider volatility, I suppose.

Best
D.P.

P.S. I do not insist on discussing what I have had to say, but things you are doing are quite the same I have been thinking about.
Hunting High and Low
  • #946
  • May 20, 2016 10:33am May 20, 2016 10:33am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Ok, So, they are both going one direction, then the fast one begins declining to the slow one. The process of declining should be controlled be means of MACD. Right?
The MACD is actually only used as an easier visual reference to the Moving Averages. Because the MAs that I use are exponential, they show up as above zero and below zero on the MACD histogram dependent on Fast being above Slow or Fast being below slow.

MACD itself is not an indicator that is used in the logic.

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
What about of AO? Momentum? If So, we should discuss some kind of a different way additionally to yours. have not you forgetten?
Been a while since I've even loaded AO or Momentum onto a chart. Given the range created by the Moving Averages and Stochastics triggering, not sure if they would prove to add or be redundant. Please feel free to expand on these with the use of an M1 chart and your ideas.

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
However, you need a Stop loss, say, if 15% DD is reached.
Stop loss is user defined, so that it can be set to any cumulative number that the user picks. $1000 works out to be about 1/3 of all of the primary accounts that I run both live and in demo testing, it is a value that I am comfortable with as far as risk is concerned.

The Stop Loss is a cumulative value like is used on the TP side of things. The sum of all trades both long and short needs to hit this value to close all trades at the selected SL value. This effectively creates a Nedge keeping the Margin lower on trend changes, even if the DrawDown hits pant shitting levels.

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
OOOuh, how I know it! I must say, your method is not compartible to everyone pair in a row, since your algo does not consider volatility, I suppose.
This remains to be seen...There have been circumstances where price moves grossly against the primary trend without enough of a retrace to effectively counter nedge the previous trades, but these are the seemingly rare and definitely not the rule. Trading pairs with the largest ranges seems to be fairly key in comparing the different methodologies as applied to the Drag the Dead, but even on these, Relevant trade sessions cannot be ruled out.

The best examples of the volatility trading with the Falling Knives logic are in the last 2 charts posted HERE.

In trend, out of trend, in trend out of trend, profiting on all directional moves including the Drag the Dead trades that finally closed on the second chart.

It will be most interesting to see how this plays out for NFP week as all versions thus far, haven't fared well.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #947
  • May 20, 2016 1:04pm May 20, 2016 1:04pm
Magix, give me your e-mail, publish it at that private place

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #948
  • May 20, 2016 2:09pm May 20, 2016 2:09pm
Check your PM box at my house.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #949
  • May 20, 2016 2:10pm May 20, 2016 2:10pm
Quoting Magix
Check your PM box at my house.
done
Hunting High and Low
  • #950
  • May 20, 2016 3:53pm May 20, 2016 3:53pm
This has been a great read, thanks Magix.
  • #951
  • May 24, 2016 1:15am May 24, 2016 1:15am
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Chi...-iresh/1641770
  • #952
  • May 24, 2016 1:42am May 24, 2016 1:42am
hi magix,

If you are remember me you gave me a simple idea of cording EA. I read several articles as well.. I tray to combine Stoch & MA in basically. I need to add the candle stick pattern to recognize the trend change like daily shooting star. if you can please tell me how to add candle pattern to my EA.
  • #953
  • May 24, 2016 6:58am May 24, 2016 6:58am
Quoting spankworthy
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Chi...-iresh/1641770
Looks good, nice pair selection.

I've added a single chart for just Gold...it don't look too bad either.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #954
  • May 24, 2016 7:13am May 24, 2016 7:13am
Quoting IreshChathu
hi magix, If you are remember me you gave me a simple idea of cording EA. I read several articles as well.. I tray to combine Stoch & MA in basically. I need to add the candle stick pattern to recognize the trend change like daily shooting star. if you can please tell me how to add candle pattern to my EA.
For candle stick patterns in EA, you have to do your best to describe the candle in code.

It may take several descriptors, especially in working with something like a shooting star, but should be possible and may need to describe the candle before, the actual candle and trigger for the following candle.

Close[3]>Open[3] //Bullish Candle
Close[2]<Open[2] //Bearish Candle
High[2]>High[3] //Showing your middle candle with a higher high
Close[1]<Open[2] //Showing signs of reversals from a Higher Highs on the previous.

Describing the body of the candle can be a little complicated and may take a few visits to figure out that this is doing what you want it to be doing...after that, pin bars, shooting stars, dragonflies...may just work out to be other candles in the mix.

Working off of a Daily Candle as a trend identifier is possible, but looking for all out trend reversals can get you into a lot of hot water with the range of a daily candle.

As an example, check out the range on GBPAUD since NY close yesterday. Cost averaging up this monster may definitely leave you with that prickly feeling in your armpits and finger looking for a "chew a limb off" exit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #955
  • May 24, 2016 11:33am May 24, 2016 11:33am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Looks good, nice pair selection. I've added a single chart for just Gold...it don't look too bad either. {image}
Thanks Magix, very small DD on such a small account. Can't wait to try it on a small live account when you are ready
  • #956
  • May 24, 2016 11:39am May 24, 2016 11:39am
Quoting spankworthy
{quote} Thanks Magix, very small DD on such a small account. Can't wait to try it on a small live account when you are ready
I want to see how the "Drag the Dead" logic holds through on NFP.

I currently have another version running with a little different triggering...will see who plays the nicest.

The AUD crosses created a little havoc today as has the GBP run on JPY, but these all closed in profit, currently waiting for the EURAUD to come back around to see how the day closes.

I've been running the thread version on a live account, same pairs as in my demo (some manual intervention)...right now, closed all and will wait and see how the next week goes before I go to Set and Forget.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #957
  • May 24, 2016 6:10pm May 24, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting iamgotzaa
hi Magix care to test mine? i'd like to contribute some of my work. tf m1 gu or eu or else????!!?!?! Required. Quantum Indicator from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=551382 {file}

Still running this one, dude.

Blew up on Cable, but the EURUSD version is still bringing home the bacon.

Nice Job!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #958
  • May 25, 2016 12:57am May 25, 2016 12:57am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Still running this one, dude. Blew up on Cable, but the EURUSD version is still bringing home the bacon. Nice Job! {image}
I believe that blowing up is because of news on GU.

I have newer version with news filter. Work like charm.
Anyway appreciate your help testing it.
Holy grail, pls pm
  • #959
  • May 25, 2016 8:04am May 25, 2016 8:04am
hi, is it recommend run in m1 timeframe with ecn account?
  • #960
  • May 25, 2016 1:53pm May 25, 2016 1:53pm
Quoting yanerfei
hi, is it recommend run in m1 timeframe with ecn account?
We are mid-week and expiry for both of the posted EAs is May 28th.

Could you run these on an ECN with the M1 timeframe?

I would say there should be absolutely no issues with this...but, because we are closing into the weekend and because after Friday close there will be nothing to monitor any leftover trades, this may not be a really good idea.

Next week is NFP week, where the trend following logic doesn't typically fare that well, so on a personal note, I won't even be testing the New Addition of the Drag the Dead on live money...really, all I want to do is see if it will actually be better than the previous versions.

After that, I don't see a reason to not go ahead with some form of licensed version, but will wait n see how things roll.

At current, the new logic has scored a fairly respectable 56% gain/$1700 profit on what could have easily been a $2000 account start, with a 500:1 leverage.
Even if it takes a beating during NFP week, as far as I am concerned, this kind of gain while sitting out NFP week every month on live funds, would be a worthwhile investment.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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