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AUD/USD

  • #97,361
  • May 22, 2016 11:33pm May 22, 2016 11:33pm
watching this areas for reasons to short for 200 odd pips
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #97,362
  • May 22, 2016 11:49pm May 22, 2016 11:49pm
Quoting lasty
Morning Punters. AUD @.7225 I've been harping on about the Australian economy going off the boil for some time now. Not that Im a pessimist but just an observation into the fundamentals before making a decision on a trade. Many have noticed the unemployment number has stabilized yet it doesn't seem to reflect whats occurring in the economy. Here maybe the answer as someone has decided to dig a little deeper and no doubt been puzzled too. http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/...5807cffb310f22...
You are nota pessimist, you are a realist. I don't understand those who buy AUD. In my opinion it's kind a stupid. It has been falling for the last 3 years. What is the reason to buy for 20-40 pips I really don't know. This pair is going down. I said 3 years ago, 2 years ago, 3 months ago and a month ago. There is only one way - down. I would probably consider a long position when we will reach 0,625 and the RBA will get to half percent, but before that any longs are out of the question.
​
  • #97,363
  • May 23, 2016 1:36am May 23, 2016 1:36am
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  • #97,364
  • May 23, 2016 1:50am May 23, 2016 1:50am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} You are nota pessimist, you are a realist. I don't understand those who buy AUD. In my opinion it's kind a stupid. It has been falling for the last 3 years. What is the reason to buy for 20-40 pips I really don't know. This pair is going down. I said 3 years ago, 2 years ago, 3 months ago and a month ago. There is only one way - down. I would probably consider a long position when we will reach 0,625 and the RBA will get to half percent, but before that any longs are out of the question. ​
Finally someone that knows what they are talking about
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #97,365
  • May 23, 2016 2:25am May 23, 2016 2:25am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} You are nota pessimist, you are a realist. I don't understand those who buy AUD. In my opinion it's kind a stupid. It has been falling for the last 3 years. What is the reason to buy for 20-40 pips I really don't know. This pair is going down. I said 3 years ago, 2 years ago, 3 months ago and a month ago. There is only one way - down. I would probably consider a long position when we will reach 0,625 and the RBA will get to half percent, but before that any longs are out of the question. ​
Whilst I agree with your general direction of down at present and also don't advocate buys of 20-40 pips your reference to saying this pair is going down 3 months ago is bizarre. At that stage price was only a third of it's way into a 1000 pip up move. Some will be buying looking for this sort of return, others may be scalping the 20-40 pips, each to their own (assuming they have a trading plan and are following it). (I'm also not suggesting that now is the time to be looking for 1000 pips up, just that price doesn't just travel one direction.)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,366
  • May 23, 2016 10:53am May 23, 2016 10:53am
Quoting dab
{quote} Whilst I agree with your general direction of down at present and also don't advocate buys of 20-40 pips your reference to saying this pair is going down 3 months ago is bizarre. At that stage price was only a third of it's way into a 1000 pip up move. Some will be buying looking for this sort of return, others may be scalping the 20-40 pips, each to their own (assuming they have a trading plan and are following it). (I'm also not suggesting that now is the time to be looking for 1000 pips up, just that price doesn't just travel one direction.)...
If you look at monthly chart you can notice without a doubt that this pair was going down 3 months ago and 2 months ago and a month ago. Those 1000 pips you are mentioning are just a small bump on the road down. I don't look at that sort of a small bump. I want to understand the big picture. Small daily trends don't interest me on this pair. The price travels in one direction, only slowly, we will see new lows in the near future.
  • #97,367
  • May 23, 2016 10:58am May 23, 2016 10:58am
The trend is definitely bearish, but I am waiting for a breakout below the previous low at 0.7175 to open a new short.
  • #97,368
  • May 23, 2016 12:40pm May 23, 2016 12:40pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} If you look at monthly chart you can notice without a doubt that this pair was going down 3 months ago and 2 months ago and a month ago. Those 1000 pips you are mentioning are just a small bump on the road down. I don't look at that sort of a small bump. I want to understand the big picture. Small daily trends don't interest me on this pair. The price travels in one direction, only slowly, we will see new lows in the near future.
Apart from bearish monthly movement, weekly also strongly bearish. For those who trade using Bollinger bands, two weeks ago bearish candle strongly closed below Bollinger Middle Band, and last weekly candle strongly retested Middle Bamd. Middle Band acts like support/resistance. Also on monthly you would observe how monthly strong bullish candle was strongly stopped by Bollinger Middle Band. AUDUSD strongly bearish for now on longer time frames. Any bullish movement may just be a retracement.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: 9.2%
  • #97,369
  • May 23, 2016 10:42pm May 23, 2016 10:42pm
AUD @.7195

RBA Stevens suggesting that inflation is weaker than first thought .

Question - Did he have a thought or was still believing inflation was the enemy ?

Anyway if that isn't a signal to dump the Aussie dollar from the only Aussie bull (stevens) I don't know what is.
  • #97,370
  • May 23, 2016 10:49pm May 23, 2016 10:49pm
Iron Ore down 6.7% today. Good sell indicators here.
  • #97,371
  • May 23, 2016 11:13pm May 23, 2016 11:13pm
imo its about to go lower
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  • #97,372
  • May 23, 2016 11:43pm May 23, 2016 11:43pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
the break back into the green daily/weekly channel off the main monthly TL above, opens up the path below I think {image} {image}
looks to be going down
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #97,373
  • May 24, 2016 12:38am May 24, 2016 12:38am
RBA Governor Glen Stephens is out and has been replaced by Philip Lowe. Just a piece of info. He has been the Deputy Governor to Glen Stephens.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: 9.2%
  • #97,374
  • May 24, 2016 1:21am May 24, 2016 1:21am
A very bear centric thread (which is a good thing) because i get to see many different perspectives from my own.

Anyway, my unpopular posting being a contrarian trader. I don't chase 500- 1000 pips because my positions are fairly huge, thus a change in market conditions can wipe me out easily. Anyway, with current market positioning, to obtain 1000pips profits will take a long time because most of the time, it is ranging. Nonetheless, to each his own.

Some traders may think nothing of 10- 50pips, however, everyday 20pips will earn me approx 5k. 20working days in a month * 5k = 100k.
Some say 20pips is very little, but to me, that's more than sufficient.

I don't doubt the bearish trend currently, but every direction the market moves is an opportunity to earn.
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  • #97,375
  • May 24, 2016 1:37am May 24, 2016 1:37am
Quoting SkyrEk
A very bear centric thread (which is a good thing) because i get to see many different perspectives from my own. Anyway, my unpopular posting being a contrarian trader. I don't chase 500- 1000 pips because my positions are fairly huge, thus a change in market conditions can wipe me out easily. Anyway, with current market positioning, to obtain 1000pips profits will take a long time because most of the time, it is ranging. Nonetheless, to each his own. Some traders may think nothing of 10- 50pips, however, everyday 20pips will earn me approx 5k....
Agreed. You trade your system for the results you desire. Green pips!
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #97,376
  • May 24, 2016 1:44am May 24, 2016 1:44am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Agreed. You trade your system for the results you desire. Green pips!
Thank you.

Green pips to u too!
  • #97,377
  • May 24, 2016 1:56am May 24, 2016 1:56am
I can't understand when people try to scalp a huge falling candle for 10-20 pip retrace with a big position, I mean I did those mistakes in my early years and blew one or two accounts like that. Sure sometimes it works out if you can manage your greed, and one day you'll swimming in pips while another spike will blow your heart.
Not worth at all when the trend provides pips galore, but to each it's own.
I do buy double size against my position at times but even that doesn't work out more than half the times. Now I'll be waiting for 7150 for a 20 pips retrace but the initial shorts will stay as long this baby goes towards 65c.
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,378
  • May 24, 2016 1:59am May 24, 2016 1:59am
Had an old screenshot initially
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,379
  • May 24, 2016 2:07am May 24, 2016 2:07am
Quoting 9jatrader
RBA Governor Glen Stephens is out and has been replaced by Philip Lowe. Just a piece of info. He has been the Deputy Governor to Glen Stephens.
No wonder especially after such a bearish comments this morning. I can't recall when someone has given so much clarity in a speech for the markets.
  • #97,380
  • May 24, 2016 2:13am May 24, 2016 2:13am
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