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  • #97,321
  • May 19, 2016 2:05am May 19, 2016 2:05am
Quoting stulic
{quote} Basic chart reading is bollocks, everyone reads charts differently, you'll see in your charts what you want to see and form a bias. What I'm saying is all you can hope for is a short squeeze and a pop of 40+ pips, the general direction will remain south for months to come.
I agree that most of the money to be made is short, at least for this month but given 100+ pip retraces are quite common and we've already had two this month (in the last week and a half) it's normal to expect more.

Given A/U is dominated by FED decisions (notwithstanding CPI data and RBA cut have been the largest two factors lately) a failure to raise rates at their June meeting would also see at least a sizeable bump in the road down.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #97,322
  • May 19, 2016 2:14am May 19, 2016 2:14am
Quoting dab
{quote} I agree that most of the money to be made is short, at least for this month but given 100+ pip retraces are quite common and we've already had two this month (in the last week and a half) it's normal to expect more. Given A/U is dominated by FED decisions (notwithstanding CPI data and RBA cut have been the largest two factors lately) a failure to raise rates at their June meeting would also see at least a sizeable bump in the road down.
Sure, just why trying to catch a falling knife expecting it to reverse a trend and shoot up to 78 as some are expecting. These levels are history.
Today is a carbon copy of yesterday. Europe opens, we see a couple of hours of retrace until NY, then a knock lower followed by another retrace. It's all treadable nicely.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,323
  • May 19, 2016 3:26am May 19, 2016 3:26am
I expected more than just 33 pips. Another pop up to close the hour at 7230 and then 7240?
7250 should cap it but we might just keep going towards 7120.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,324
  • May 19, 2016 3:30am May 19, 2016 3:30am
Quoting stulic
I expected more than just 33 pips. Another pop up to close the hour at 7230 and then 7240? 7250 should cap it but we might just keep going towards 7120.
did you type 7330 and 7340 before?
  • #97,325
  • May 19, 2016 3:32am May 19, 2016 3:32am
Quoting erichmj
{quote} did you type 7330 and 7340 before?
I did lol it was not so long ago still in my head
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,326
  • May 19, 2016 3:33am May 19, 2016 3:33am
I am considering opening a new short position once it breaks below 0.7200. I think it will reach at least 0.7150.
  • #97,327
  • May 19, 2016 3:39am May 19, 2016 3:39am
Quoting dianajs
I am considering opening a new short position once it breaks below 0.7200. I think it will reach at least 0.7150.
Watch USD/JPY if it breaks higher we'll certainly drop further towards 7150. The moves are pretty much all USD driven and it's heading higher.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,328
  • May 19, 2016 3:58am May 19, 2016 3:58am
One more low at Wall Street open would be nice
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  • #97,329
  • May 19, 2016 5:58am May 19, 2016 5:58am
175 should be it for today. From there we'll see some retracement. My eyes are on around 250 for reentry should it hold. Maybe tomorrow. It seems quite springloaded for a higher break if it makes it through
  • #97,330
  • May 19, 2016 6:26am May 19, 2016 6:26am
Quoting Value
175 should be it for today. From there we'll see some retracement. My eyes are on around 250 for reentry should it hold. Maybe tomorrow. It seems quite springloaded for a higher break if it makes it through
We haven't seen 7175 because if we had, I think we would've seen much lower by now.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,331
  • May 19, 2016 6:33am May 19, 2016 6:33am
Quoting Value
175 should be it for today. From there we'll see some retracement. My eyes are on around 250 for reentry should it hold. Maybe tomorrow. It seems quite springloaded for a higher break if it makes it through
Did you mean 0.7175 with the 175 should be it for today?

At some point, I agree that this whole downside movement has to correct more violently than it had so far. Already has begun drawing wedges on the 5-minute time frame. In Elliot terms could mean the latest stages of a 5-wave, when the price draws only 3 waves movements.

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  • #97,332
  • May 19, 2016 6:48am May 19, 2016 6:48am
Still more room for a southward push. However, unless fundamentals shake things for a northward move, AU will head towards a testing of a daily S/R zone which is aligned with a weekly S/R zone.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #97,333
  • May 19, 2016 6:52am May 19, 2016 6:52am
Quoting diavolul
{quote} Did you mean 0.7175 with the 175 should be it for today?

Yeah 7175.

My action range for the week now is 7175 low, 7225 and a wee bit above 7250 for the high. Imo that's where activity will gear up.
If the highs are triggered I am aiming for 7330.
Depending on how it will reject that level looking to go short again.
Don't know how to play the 7175 low though. Could break trough it quite violently.
  • #97,334
  • May 19, 2016 7:10am May 19, 2016 7:10am
Quoting KeenPips
Still more room for a southward push. However, unless fundamentals shake things for a northward move, AU will head towards a testing of a daily S/R zone which is aligned with a weekly S/R zone.
Yeah the unemployment reports today coupled with a pretty lopsided down trend will likely have caused some structural changes in the market dynamics.
Thats why I am not so sure about the downside. The next significant events are at the beginnings of june.
We could see some retracement till then.
  • #97,335
  • Edited 7:42am May 19, 2016 7:29am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting Value
{quote} Yeah 7175. My action range for the week now is 7175 low, 7225 and a wee bit above 7250 for the high. Imo that's where activity will gear up. If the highs are triggered I am aiming for 7330. Depending on how it will reject that level looking to go short again. Don't know how to play the 7175 low though. Could break trough it quite violently.
Yeah, I am resonating with your kind of view. I have few shorts and I am willing to add more of them after the upside correction will be finished.

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  • #97,336
  • May 19, 2016 8:04am May 19, 2016 8:04am
Quoting Value
{quote} Yeah the unemployment reports today coupled with a pretty lopsided down trend will likely have caused some structural changes in the market dynamics. Thats why I am not so sure about the downside. The next significant events are at the beginnings of june. We could see some retracement till then.
We've seen 7176 tho, do you reckon that was it or are we gonna drop lower tonight?
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #97,337
  • May 19, 2016 8:27am May 19, 2016 8:27am
Hey newbie here, I'm going through the same issue, I closed on my losses this morning from 0.7330 and was loosing more and more. Ive bought into it at 0.7206 .. it dipped then crept back up and now, will this go down anymore than 0.7175?
  • #97,338
  • May 19, 2016 8:33am May 19, 2016 8:33am
Short covering rally taking place atm.
61.8% at .7210 can be a significant level to watch for today's close. Closing above it and we can expect more upside.


Load up on your shorts bears. Wait for the bulls to be exhausted and we shall give it the finale big short all the way to below .70.
  • #97,339
  • May 19, 2016 8:38am May 19, 2016 8:38am
Quoting Value
{quote} Yeah 7175. My action range for the week now is 7175 low, 7225 and a wee bit above 7250 for the high. Imo that's where activity will gear up. If the highs are triggered I am aiming for 7330. Depending on how it will reject that level looking to go short again. Don't know how to play the 7175 low though. Could break trough it quite violently.
very accurate forecast. .7175 is indeed today's low. Provided that AU continues going up or consolidate today.

I will agree with your pointers. AU needs some forms of correction no matter what.
  • #97,340
  • May 19, 2016 8:45am May 19, 2016 8:45am
Quoting diavolul
{quote} Yeah, I am resonating with your kind of view. I have few shorts and I am willing to add more of them after the upside correction will be finished. {image}
Hi, Diavolul

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