News trading discussion - continuation
- #2,724
- May 18, 2016 6:59am May 18, 2016 6:59am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,726
- Edited 1:00pm May 18, 2016 12:38pm | Edited 1:00pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Thursday
4:30
19/5/16
AU Number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Posted protocol RBA last meeting a few puzzled and upset the markets, it appears that the decline in interest rates was uncertain - the meeting participants want to get more information before deciding.
This situation is regarded markets as a significant signal "stop-cock" for further easing of monetary policy.
It seems that the RBA may be a long time to settle for a sudden decrease in rates in May to a record low of 1.75%. Against the backdrop of the likely more hawkish Fed togna, such a scenario can be quite hard.
But recall that the AUD growth is not in the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in the interests of the bank its decline to 0.7 in tandem with American. Also, the RBA can return to mitigation policy, or discuss this possibility in the case of negative data from the Australian economy. In this regard, the pessimist scenario for the publication of the labor market would be more acceptable to us.
Recall that this release is not a formal release process in connection with which - comes with a delay. The likelihood of conflict increases the demands on risk.
Thursday
11:30
19/5/16
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thursday
17:30
19/5/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #GAS
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
4:30
19/5/16
AU Number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Posted protocol RBA last meeting a few puzzled and upset the markets, it appears that the decline in interest rates was uncertain - the meeting participants want to get more information before deciding.
This situation is regarded markets as a significant signal "stop-cock" for further easing of monetary policy.
It seems that the RBA may be a long time to settle for a sudden decrease in rates in May to a record low of 1.75%. Against the backdrop of the likely more hawkish Fed togna, such a scenario can be quite hard.
But recall that the AUD growth is not in the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in the interests of the bank its decline to 0.7 in tandem with American. Also, the RBA can return to mitigation policy, or discuss this possibility in the case of negative data from the Australian economy. In this regard, the pessimist scenario for the publication of the labor market would be more acceptable to us.
Recall that this release is not a formal release process in connection with which - comes with a delay. The likelihood of conflict increases the demands on risk.
Thursday
11:30
19/5/16
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thursday
17:30
19/5/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #GAS
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,727
- May 18, 2016 1:09pm May 18, 2016 1:09pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
first call
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,729
- May 18, 2016 1:28pm May 18, 2016 1:28pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,731
- May 19, 2016 3:36am May 19, 2016 3:36am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,732
- May 19, 2016 10:38am May 19, 2016 10:38am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,733
- May 19, 2016 8:55pm May 19, 2016 8:55pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,085 Posts
Friday 15:30 20/5/16 CA Core Retail Sales (CA Core Retail Sales), Canada, USDCAD Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release. 15% probability trades.
Good Morning master,
With your super rich exp. on News trading could you please help me on 2 issues?
Recently i'm developing a strategy which can survive in all ranging markets and 80% trading markets with average 0.7:1 win/loss ratio.( quite high for Martingale systems）
The only thing that can kill it, is the high impact data which create a sky rocket move like this:
As we all know, Martingale systems should usually avoid NFP, bid rate FOMC....etc. but Unemployment Rate? How could it stronger than NFP/bid rate....i'm confused.
Q1: How could you anticipate data influence? is there any charts which shows the data impact for last XX times? so you can refer to it.
Q2: By your exp. How to avoid those super trending markets?
No one wants to be defeated~
- #2,734
- May 19, 2016 9:03pm May 19, 2016 9:03pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,085 Posts
No one wants to be defeated~
- #2,735
- May 19, 2016 9:23pm May 19, 2016 9:23pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,085 Posts
No one wants to be defeated~
- #2,736
- May 20, 2016 12:32am May 20, 2016 12:32am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
{quote} Good Morning master, With your super rich exp. on News trading could you please help me on 2 issues?
You want to avoid strong price movement, and I'm ready for a strong news and am very saddened when the news did not meet my expectations.
So I can not help you in your quest.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,738
- May 20, 2016 6:47am May 20, 2016 6:47am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
{quote} Hello vvFish, Are you planning to trade USDCAD today or CADJPY or GBPCAD?
CAD is always interested in trade.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,739
- May 20, 2016 7:42am May 20, 2016 7:42am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,740
- May 20, 2016 3:45pm May 20, 2016 3:45pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Thoughts on "smart traders"
The probability of Fed rate increase rose to 35% for the week.
Fundamental background is dense smog in Hong Kong: a pound on the eve of the referendum, the Fed's aggressive enough, Australia is going back on their word, New Zealand in the drop zone, the fires in Canada and the publication of the interest rate next week.
RBA released minutes of the meeting
Market expectations regarding the continuation of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia fell slightly after the publication of minutes of meetings on Tuesday.
As it turned out - the decision was not "decisive" and deliberative want to get more statistics before deciding on additional easing. However, we recall the results of the meeting in May, the interest rate has been reduced to historic 1.75%.
The content of the protocol was seen as a further leveling imminent tightening of bank policy.
Publication of the labor market this week has not brought significant changes:
Employment Change in fact 10.8K 12.1K forecast
Unemployment Rate in fact 5.7%, forecast 5.8%
The market will continue the argument on the subject of further decline. The next week is to observe the performance of Stevens.
RBNZ still under suspicion
Posted PPI fueling continued talk about further reducing the interest rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: The data came well below forecasts of -1.0% for the first quarter to an estimated 0.3%. This, of course, not the consumer price index, but the CPI is likely to respond similarly.
Indicator of inflation expectations published on Tuesday, at around 1.64% 2-year wait (before 1,63%), and 1.22% for the next year, the indicator used by the Bank when deciding on the size of the interest rate. RBNZ inflation target level of 1% -3%.
Recall that the RBNZ to cut interest rates in March.
The question of further interest rate cuts is still open, and it is urgent.
Published the results of the survey: Brexit not supposed
With the approach of the referendum on the exit of Britain from the European Union (23 June), a pound more and better responds to reports about the likelihood of such an event: the Englishman responded to the IMF's statements about the risk of exit UK responded to the statements of the London action (which supports output), and showed the most vivid reaction to the publication of the preliminary interviews. According to recent reports the gap between "for" and "against" is 18 points (in favor of the anti-release).
The pound was also supported by the statistics this week.
Average Earnings Index 3m / y in fact 2.0%, vs. 1.7%
Claimant Count Change in fact -2,4K against -2.4K forecast
Retail Sales m / m in fact 1.3%, vs. 0.6%
The only negative note of was to reduce the CPI, as the index responsible for the inflation rate: 0.3% in fact, against the forecast of 0.5%.
The probability of increasing interest rates the Fed has increased significantly
Perhaps the main line of this week.
Fed officials this week have been tough enough in his statements. In fact, it proved to be tougher and published FOMC Minutes summarizing the Committee meeting in April. From 16 to 20 May, will probably increase the interest rate increased from 8% to 35% in June. The probability of a rate hike in December, at the moment at all is 75%.
Lacker said that the neglect rate increase in the first half of the year has to be made up for in the second.
Williams: 2-3 sees increase this year, and the next meeting will be quite "alive" in terms of decision-making.
Lockhart: is not possible to see the negative interest rates in the US, expects 2-3 rate increases this year.
Kaplan: after raising rates in June or July, it takes time to assess the situation.
Dudley: June - will definitely be a lively discussion, the US economy is strong, and we can raise the rate in June / July.
The consumer price index except for the volatile components at the level of 2.1% at the level of the Fed's inflation target of 2%. Swift interest rate hike seems likely.
Next week, the dollar may show more sensitivity to his statistics.
Canadian fires affect oil.
Large-scale fires in Alberta, Canada helped to strengthen oil prices. Terms of oil supplies disrupted by the four suppliers in the region. Brent touched the peak of the current year. The Canadian will continue to respond to the oil quotes. It should be noted that the CAD sufficiently sensitive to both oil and its news and to "dollar".
The debate about the likelihood of interest rate cuts flare up with renewed vigor in the next week - on Wednesday we will publish the interest rate.
bonus
Norges Bank does not rule out negative interest rates if the situation so require. At the moment, the rate is 0.5%, after declining in March to 0.75%.
The Bank of Sweden already has a negative interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and recognizes that inflation may stay below the target level for longer than expected.
Pay attention to the publication of GDP and US statistics next week.
The probability of Fed rate increase rose to 35% for the week.
Fundamental background is dense smog in Hong Kong: a pound on the eve of the referendum, the Fed's aggressive enough, Australia is going back on their word, New Zealand in the drop zone, the fires in Canada and the publication of the interest rate next week.
RBA released minutes of the meeting
Market expectations regarding the continuation of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia fell slightly after the publication of minutes of meetings on Tuesday.
As it turned out - the decision was not "decisive" and deliberative want to get more statistics before deciding on additional easing. However, we recall the results of the meeting in May, the interest rate has been reduced to historic 1.75%.
The content of the protocol was seen as a further leveling imminent tightening of bank policy.
Publication of the labor market this week has not brought significant changes:
Employment Change in fact 10.8K 12.1K forecast
Unemployment Rate in fact 5.7%, forecast 5.8%
The market will continue the argument on the subject of further decline. The next week is to observe the performance of Stevens.
RBNZ still under suspicion
Posted PPI fueling continued talk about further reducing the interest rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: The data came well below forecasts of -1.0% for the first quarter to an estimated 0.3%. This, of course, not the consumer price index, but the CPI is likely to respond similarly.
Indicator of inflation expectations published on Tuesday, at around 1.64% 2-year wait (before 1,63%), and 1.22% for the next year, the indicator used by the Bank when deciding on the size of the interest rate. RBNZ inflation target level of 1% -3%.
Recall that the RBNZ to cut interest rates in March.
The question of further interest rate cuts is still open, and it is urgent.
Published the results of the survey: Brexit not supposed
With the approach of the referendum on the exit of Britain from the European Union (23 June), a pound more and better responds to reports about the likelihood of such an event: the Englishman responded to the IMF's statements about the risk of exit UK responded to the statements of the London action (which supports output), and showed the most vivid reaction to the publication of the preliminary interviews. According to recent reports the gap between "for" and "against" is 18 points (in favor of the anti-release).
The pound was also supported by the statistics this week.
Average Earnings Index 3m / y in fact 2.0%, vs. 1.7%
Claimant Count Change in fact -2,4K against -2.4K forecast
Retail Sales m / m in fact 1.3%, vs. 0.6%
The only negative note of was to reduce the CPI, as the index responsible for the inflation rate: 0.3% in fact, against the forecast of 0.5%.
The probability of increasing interest rates the Fed has increased significantly
Perhaps the main line of this week.
Fed officials this week have been tough enough in his statements. In fact, it proved to be tougher and published FOMC Minutes summarizing the Committee meeting in April. From 16 to 20 May, will probably increase the interest rate increased from 8% to 35% in June. The probability of a rate hike in December, at the moment at all is 75%.
Lacker said that the neglect rate increase in the first half of the year has to be made up for in the second.
Williams: 2-3 sees increase this year, and the next meeting will be quite "alive" in terms of decision-making.
Lockhart: is not possible to see the negative interest rates in the US, expects 2-3 rate increases this year.
Kaplan: after raising rates in June or July, it takes time to assess the situation.
Dudley: June - will definitely be a lively discussion, the US economy is strong, and we can raise the rate in June / July.
The consumer price index except for the volatile components at the level of 2.1% at the level of the Fed's inflation target of 2%. Swift interest rate hike seems likely.
Next week, the dollar may show more sensitivity to his statistics.
Canadian fires affect oil.
Large-scale fires in Alberta, Canada helped to strengthen oil prices. Terms of oil supplies disrupted by the four suppliers in the region. Brent touched the peak of the current year. The Canadian will continue to respond to the oil quotes. It should be noted that the CAD sufficiently sensitive to both oil and its news and to "dollar".
The debate about the likelihood of interest rate cuts flare up with renewed vigor in the next week - on Wednesday we will publish the interest rate.
bonus
Norges Bank does not rule out negative interest rates if the situation so require. At the moment, the rate is 0.5%, after declining in March to 0.75%.
The Bank of Sweden already has a negative interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and recognizes that inflation may stay below the target level for longer than expected.
Pay attention to the publication of GDP and US statistics next week.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...