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  • #1,067,361
  • May 17, 2016 1:02pm May 17, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting nae
{image}
I don't know if I'm interpreting volume correctly, but I've been noticing higher volume at the top of the range while we've been seeing lower volume on lower side of the range. I've been seeing these strengths and weaknesses since we got into the range.
  • #1,067,362
  • May 17, 2016 1:55pm May 17, 2016 1:55pm
Fed Minutes Likely to Reveal Debate on June, July Rate Hike.
we may see another low tomorrow.
The market is priced for December hike .any hint for June or July will crush euro.
  • #1,067,363
  • May 17, 2016 2:03pm May 17, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting s3padrian
{quote} I noticed on your blog that you're mid-term count has this fall as a b wave instead of what Ian has a wave-4. I too am thinking this is wave-5 up, but I can see from your count the possibility of the low capping off a b. Both counts pointing buy, but by how much in the mid-term? I guess we'll see which ratios fit better as the wave forms. I've been waiting MONTHS for the major fall to happen. Neowave caps this as a wave 2 up forming for a large 3 down.
You mean the screenshot of the blog of Ian Copsey I think....
yes ... last week this was the best fitted count...but after the at that time wave (iv) went lower and lower....this just couldn't fit with the alternation between wave (ii) and (iv). The solution for this was a change in the count. You also see that the light blue count (directly after the (ii) is changed). The reason for this confusion was the violent move up after the dark blue wave (ii)...the light blue wave i and ii and even the wave a was hidden in this bar! That's why it is important to count waves in lower timeframes if something is onlyclear....and even then the waves can hidden or unsure.... then you can understand better wha is goiong on.

So yes the count on the blog is out-dated! But at that time the best possible fit....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,364
  • May 17, 2016 2:10pm May 17, 2016 2:10pm
Quoting micho
by the way happy, i tried to look into eliott wave theory over the weekend and tried to spot it on some pairs. it was extremely difficult to understand what and where even in the past. the easiest i could spot, which might or might not be accurate is EURCAD 1-2-3-4-5 then a-b waiting for c up around the yellow line my normal system im testing points south to the target of the blue expansion, with a stop on top of the max blue retracement, now its too late to enter unless we go back up but eliott points north to yellow line which might come true...
For me ew is not working for me... often I had the idea that I really forcing counts... with Harmonic Elliot Wave (HEW) you have your measurements. and from my experience it is a strong measurement. Anyway it is difficult to spot the wave i and wave ii correct. But if so...then the rest often goes the way as the measurments say. So with HEW I feel much more confortable...

And yes it's not easy...and ofcourse can put you in the wrong direction....you know a Holy grail isn't found yet.......that's correct!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,365
  • May 17, 2016 2:14pm May 17, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting Uturn2
{quote} Nicely put!
Totally agreed!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,366
  • Edited 2:38pm May 17, 2016 2:21pm | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Maybe will go down later. This is a diversion. Is an isolated rise only on E/U. It has no usual correlation on the dollar counterparts ...dax & dow & GBP are momentary sleeping ...yeah, euro is the big shot riseing, ridiculous ...it will drop soon! It's a very big player's show obviously
Today was similar to the last Tuesday. Big USD sell orders on USDCNH and USDRUB followed by big EUR buy orders on EURUSD. You are right it is a very big players' show.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,067,367
  • Edited 3:23pm May 17, 2016 2:48pm | Edited 3:23pm
well this wasn't where I was hoping for..... just a push up...and back into his cave again

I just studied the price development and something is strange....the move of today is just to shallow for a finishing decent wave i (in correlation with the major wave-counts)
If this was from the low (1,1282) a wave i (abc) to 1,1348...then this wave i looks to short for getting to beyond 1,16xx... and the bigger waves are just pointing to this level 1.16xx) So I had a better look at the last up-move (from 1,1301 to 1,1348) well this isn't looking as a 5-wave move in the lower time-frames.... (the ratios are really crap....) So it looks like as an abc...

Well in that case...and another indication is we retracing a lot now....it maybe could an Expanded Flat we see. And if so then the efc must be a 5-wave move down to noramlly just below the efa wave @1,1301....

I measured this move down.....and yes...the measuring is pointing me to a calculated low (in this move down) to +/-1,1301 (magic...? maybe.....maybe not...) See the screenshot...

So at the end I can fit this move from today completely into the expectation (with correct ratios and alternation) of a bullish EURUSD for the coming sessions.

So I expect first a small move down that could stall at 1,1301 to 1,1291....before heading higher....and still it has to backed up by other indicators....remember this is just an indicator and not a system!

If things go wrong...below 1,1272....then this view (also the USDX view) is crashed and the eurusd is definitely bearish! and I need to search for a count that would fit in this move

edit: oh gosh.... I just checked the pivot points.....and guess what the Monthly pivot S1 is located at 1,1290....also the daily pivot S1 is situated at 1,1293...
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,368
  • May 17, 2016 3:17pm May 17, 2016 3:17pm
All come down to whether the support level 1.13 can hold.
  • #1,067,369
  • May 17, 2016 4:57pm May 17, 2016 4:57pm
WSJ central bank twitter feed;

Donald Trump say he will release policy plan to dismantle nearly all of Dodd-Frank.

WOW.. He has just secured the Wall street vote and if he wins watch the capital flow in to the US and the euro to dump.
  • #1,067,370
  • May 17, 2016 9:03pm May 17, 2016 9:03pm
Waiting for 1.1250 to go long
  • #1,067,371
  • May 17, 2016 10:28pm May 17, 2016 10:28pm
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #1,067,372
  • Edited 11:08pm May 17, 2016 10:40pm | Edited 11:08pm
My Intraday Setup

- the easy anticipated correction for the last 2 days brought some selling opportunities (on the chart);
- but now E/U keep going down as expected from yesterday's data published clearly in the USdollar's favour ...or it was the last news from China's steel

- Last Week's Low support is an heroic holder;
- possible to hit Daily S2 1.1272 until FOMC show;

- overall big boys gossip : bearish

Green to all!
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Member
  • #1,067,373
  • May 17, 2016 10:43pm May 17, 2016 10:43pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Today was similar to the last Tuesday. Big USD sell orders on USDCNH and USDRUB followed by big EUR buy orders on EURUSD. You are right it is a very big players' show.
Yes, but is funny they've chose to throw selling orders on USD at the very moment of the positive US news
Member
  • #1,067,374
  • May 17, 2016 11:48pm May 17, 2016 11:48pm
I still remain bearish on EU. If you want to know more on this, check here. Green pips to you.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,067,375
  • May 17, 2016 11:55pm May 17, 2016 11:55pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Yes, but is funny they've chose to throw selling orders on USD at the very moment of the positive US news
The purpose probably was not to allow USD to strengthen. As we can see now, resistance against market is futile. Definitely in long term.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,067,376
  • Edited 12:35am May 18, 2016 12:03am | Edited 12:35am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} The purpose probably was not to allow USD to strengthen. As we can see now, resistance against market is futile. Definitely in long term.
Obviously

1.1272 the daily S2 hit, as I expected making money ...good luck to all!
...people should wait nice and easy in a range the FOMC show

Shit, it drops hard
Filled your shorts, guys?
Member
  • #1,067,377
  • May 18, 2016 12:31am May 18, 2016 12:31am
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  • #1,067,378
  • May 18, 2016 12:35am May 18, 2016 12:35am
Quoting PatienceFx
{image}
Very nice!
  • #1,067,379
  • May 18, 2016 12:35am May 18, 2016 12:35am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : trade triggered, risk management should be taken : {image}
Update : profit should be locked, looking for more drop (if it will do) to adjust new SL levels :


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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #1,067,380
  • May 18, 2016 12:38am May 18, 2016 12:38am
Quoting arash66110
Fed Minutes Likely to Reveal Debate on June, July Rate Hike. we may see another low tomorrow. The market is priced for December hike .any hint for June or July will crush euro.
It is crushed before fomc
1.12 is the next
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