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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #60,081
  • May 17, 2016 3:24pm May 17, 2016 3:24pm
Quoting MisterG
{quote} I am already short , tp as shown in a previous post. If current H4 candle closes lower than 108.936 ( the low of the big bull bar ) that will set a new bearish sentiment in the market and will induce a swing to the downside in my opinion. If current H4 bar won't take out the low of that bull bar it won't be such a good signal. I am early in the trade , but if something goes against my judgement I will cut it instantly. G.
well h4 did not close below bull candle. now what else is left to happen against your judgement ?
There is only one way to learn. It’s through action.
  • #60,082
  • Edited 5:00pm May 17, 2016 4:45pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting mahfoozah
{quote} well h4 did not close below bull candle. now what else is left to happen against your judgement ?
Yes , now I am still in the trade but with a very tight stop. Daily candle closed but it is not yet convincing on it's own , due to the close above the daily low (there is a shadow on it). So market is hesitant and indecisive. If my stop gets hit , and most likely it will be than I will be looking for a short only after the so called "fakey". So my ideal scenario is consolidation within the range of this D1 candle ( as presented on the attached screen ) for at least one more day , and than price will break up but fails to stay up , so a pinbar is created on a daily chart. I will try to sell only if a) there is a fakey on a daily chart after a day or two of consolidating( maybe with an intraday entry possible ) b) there is a daily pinbar preferably with close at the low ( with a black body ) rejecting the trendline. In this case consolidation is not a must. If those scenarios are not present and market goes down even in a moment , I am not going to place any sell spot or sell stop order anywhere. I hope I have explained clearly enough.
So here is my ideal scenario , take a look to the left at the big bearish candle formed 28.04 , the very middle of it's body is also a natural strong phychological resistance it happens to be just above the high of latest daily candle around 109.800 , so this level plus trendline plus consolidation fake breakout would be the ultimate short setup , but for now we have to wait.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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trade safe
G.
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #60,083
  • May 17, 2016 5:16pm May 17, 2016 5:16pm
Be careful. On 4H chart appears to be in wave 4 of 5.
  • #60,084
  • May 17, 2016 5:44pm May 17, 2016 5:44pm
The pair remains its positive tone after losing its upside strength, next resistance level can be found at today's high 109.64.
  • #60,085
  • May 17, 2016 10:13pm May 17, 2016 10:13pm
anyone taking a sell on UJ? At this point 109.122~109.33? (long)
  • #60,086
  • May 18, 2016 2:28am May 18, 2016 2:28am
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  • #60,087
  • May 18, 2016 2:58am May 18, 2016 2:58am
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  • #60,088
  • May 18, 2016 2:58am May 18, 2016 2:58am
Quoting Montano95
anyone taking a sell on UJ? At this point 109.122~109.33? (long)
I have a short on the board.. im holding tight and 110 is my threshold
  • #60,089
  • May 18, 2016 4:09am May 18, 2016 4:09am
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  • #60,090
  • May 18, 2016 4:20am May 18, 2016 4:20am
Attached Image
Forex, awful to watch, AWESOME to play
  • #60,091
  • May 18, 2016 5:41am May 18, 2016 5:41am
Quoting MisterG
{quote} Yes , now I am still in the trade but with a very tight stop. Daily candle closed but it is not yet convincing on it's own , due to the close above the daily low (there is a shadow on it). So market is hesitant and indecisive. If my stop gets hit , and most likely it will be than I will be looking for a short only after the so called "fakey". So my ideal scenario is consolidation within the range of this D1 candle ( as presented on the attached screen ) for at least one more day , and than price will break up but fails to stay up , so a...
everything you said is so much detail and years of experience i am thankful to you for in depth analysis on this... i kinda knew something like that would happen but i did not have so many reasons you have shared here everything seems real and that is exactly what would happen i am sure of it.

i am not that long term trader, i stick to hourly and trade with high leverage to just get atleast risk free 10 pips a day (200 pips a month) thats it. i wonder with your style on daily what is your weekly or monthly target in terms of pips.
There is only one way to learn. It’s through action.
  • #60,092
  • Edited 12:41pm May 18, 2016 12:08pm | Edited 12:41pm
Now in Wave 5 after flat corrective (ascending channel) Wave 4. Most likely ending either 110.00 or 110.50 zones. Unless of course Fed minutes reaction blow right through those levels:
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  • #60,093
  • May 19, 2016 6:49am May 19, 2016 6:49am
to long Uj, target 100 pips with a small sl.
I just don't post analysis I trade it .
  • #60,094
  • May 19, 2016 7:01am May 19, 2016 7:01am
Long 109.85 TP 110.60 SL 109.65

SL wll set to break even once up 30 pips
  • #60,095
  • May 19, 2016 7:53am May 19, 2016 7:53am
Not the time to go long.
  • #60,096
  • May 19, 2016 7:58am May 19, 2016 7:58am
on 1hr its showing a major reversal pattern, time to short ? I may get in after the candle close
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I just don't post analysis I trade it .
  • #60,097
  • May 19, 2016 8:02am May 19, 2016 8:02am
Quoting Captain-
on 1hr its showing a major reversal pattern, time to short ? I may get in after the candle close {image}
Short with a 10 pip sl
I just don't post analysis I trade it .
  • #60,098
  • May 19, 2016 8:07am May 19, 2016 8:07am
Quoting Captain-
on 1hr its showing a major reversal pattern, time to short ? I may get in after the candle close {image}
Could be the case. However on the hourly as well I saw Stochastic hidden divergence to the upside while at the same time price touched yesterdays high value area and macd was well into positive. Lots of technical positive confluence for me. for my target of 110.60

Also, my stop is already at breakeven
  • #60,099
  • May 19, 2016 8:20am May 19, 2016 8:20am
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} Could be the case. However on the hourly as well I saw Stochastic hidden divergence to the upside while at the same time price touched yesterdays high value area and macd was well into positive. Lots of technical positive confluence for me. for my target of 110.60 Also, my stop is already at breakeven
Lets see, most of the time price turns after the structure
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I just don't post analysis I trade it .
  • #60,100
  • May 19, 2016 8:25am May 19, 2016 8:25am
Quoting Captain-
{quote} Lets see, most of the time price turns after the structure {image}
MACD
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I just don't post analysis I trade it .
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