QuoteDislikedI. Here is the sketch we made a few weeks ago before anything happened as example to explain outlooks ... any similarities ???
QuoteDislikedYes it appears the levels WERE close to where we WERE are CURRENTLY.
Levels are irrelevant in that sketch. The pattern and the kind of areas is the important thing.
Here is the chart again cut the axis so its clearer. The concept applies to any instrument in any market...
QuoteDislikedThe First Five iterations were in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK....
1 to 3 agree.
From the fourth iterations you are starting to get a bit confused:
QuoteDislikedThe Fourth iteration was at the extreme .139X and was a SELL but PRICE went way NORTH at the EXHAUSTION LEVEL and possibly the BULLS Capitulation. This one went opposite of how it should have unless it was due to an FA due to the GDP and ISM US data
Why you need to find a FA explanation when it was none? you need to put things in context.
On Friday
--> If you were not riding longs from way below you should have been flat as pancake on Friday close looking to fade the top next week (in neutral you sell the extremes) ...
On Monday (Holiday)
--> The break you are pointing out was made with 85% of the world markets close. All Asia was closed, Europe was closed, only the US opened later....most of EZ was on and off Holidays till Friday NFP.... There WAS NOT change in outlook from NEUTRAL because THERE WAS NOT any reason to changed it.
On Tuesday
However TA wise there was a break. You, I and only 1/2 of Europe came back form Holidays on Tuesday and Euro was 100 ticks away in a break (trading air).
WE ARE NOT BLIND!!! so bulls got the benefit of the doubt regardless of my or anybody's outlook. FAwise we needed a proper confirmation and real money buying the break in order to play it....so a no brainer especially given the key levels in play.... if the break was a runner (which it shouldn't on outlook neutral mid and short term) loading NFP was the one to trade.
Wed - Thursday
Nothing to see. Most of Euro Zone on Holidays with euro trading air ...
QuoteDisliked4. The Fifth iteration was at the extreme and was a SELL.
Strongly disagree and thats why I was long....
On Friday
No brainer trade with a NFP flop -> Buy on the retrace to break out point (not flip no nothing. Simple break/retrace to break to load) ...and flop we got !!! but rally was very very weak (we called every step in the thread)....we couldn't even clear first target.
QuoteDisliked5. The 6th iteration was at the extreme and was a SELL
Here is lesson for this iteration and even call it in the tittle of the exercise:
Disliked..... This iteration is the first REAL live trading set variation, a simple R:R in play for opening the discussion on money getting caught in the wrong side short term ...Ignored
The actual play from a TA point of view starting to get a bit soft when price breached down 1.139x twice during the week. Money, real money is trap from Friday NFP (including me). Price is not rallying, smell fishy from the break out on Holidays to the lack of reaction on the bad NFP.
From the FA point of view Equities start selling off (via Apple) and finally BOE and the UK put BREXIT on the table and risk start slowly entering in the picture. Dollar rejected the lows and breached back to key 94.4x as a consequence (all this call it live in the thread so you can back track for details) ... here is enough info for me ...time to clear all long NFP Euro positions and change short term outlook until further data (inflation reports)
DislikedClearing all longs positions from NFP flow in a scratch trade here. For the sake of the iteration 'reverso' in play for the roll with cheap tickets available aiming to smash stops hanging on air a few ticks below targeting the lows of the 1.12xx handle...Ignored
Attached Image
Friday
A simple setup with reports. Any positive news from inflation or retail/consumer sentiment will trigger the stops from NFP .... Inline and overshoots perfectly time ...money getting caught in the wrong side short term...Trap triggered ....hope you learnt the lesson ...
QuoteDislikedIII. where is the flip now? / IV. where are the extremes? are their new extremes ?
Not the same ...and yes there is a new Top extreme and flip...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now