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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,481
  • Edited 5:28pm May 16, 2016 5:08pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quote
I. Here is the sketch we made a few weeks ago before anything happened as example to explain outlooks ... any similarities ???
Quote
Yes it appears the levels WERE close to where we WERE are CURRENTLY.

Levels are irrelevant in that sketch. The pattern and the kind of areas is the important thing.

Here is the chart again cut the axis so its clearer. The concept applies to any instrument in any market...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sketch.png Size: 361 KB


Quote
The First Five iterations were in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK....


1 to 3 agree.

From the fourth iterations you are starting to get a bit confused:

Quote
The Fourth iteration was at the extreme .139X and was a SELL but PRICE went way NORTH at the EXHAUSTION LEVEL and possibly the BULLS Capitulation. This one went opposite of how it should have unless it was due to an FA due to the GDP and ISM US data


Why you need to find a FA explanation when it was none? you need to put things in context.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Iteration4.png Size: 66 KB


On Friday
--> If you were not riding longs from way below you should have been flat as pancake on Friday close looking to fade the top next week (in neutral you sell the extremes) ...

On Monday (Holiday)
--> The break you are pointing out was made with 85% of the world markets close. All Asia was closed, Europe was closed, only the US opened later....most of EZ was on and off Holidays till Friday NFP.... There WAS NOT change in outlook from NEUTRAL because THERE WAS NOT any reason to changed it.

On Tuesday
However TA wise there was a break. You, I and only 1/2 of Europe came back form Holidays on Tuesday and Euro was 100 ticks away in a break (trading air).

WE ARE NOT BLIND!!! so bulls got the benefit of the doubt regardless of my or anybody's outlook. FAwise we needed a proper confirmation and real money buying the break in order to play it....so a no brainer especially given the key levels in play.... if the break was a runner (which it shouldn't on outlook neutral mid and short term) loading NFP was the one to trade.

Wed - Thursday
Nothing to see. Most of Euro Zone on Holidays with euro trading air ...

Quote
4. The Fifth iteration was at the extreme and was a SELL.


Strongly disagree and thats why I was long....

On Friday

No brainer trade with a NFP flop -> Buy on the retrace to break out point (not flip no nothing. Simple break/retrace to break to load) ...and flop we got !!! but rally was very very weak (we called every step in the thread)....we couldn't even clear first target.

Quote
5. The 6th iteration was at the extreme and was a SELL


Here is lesson for this iteration and even call it in the tittle of the exercise:

Quoting sisse
..... This iteration is the first REAL live trading set variation, a simple R:R in play for opening the discussion on money getting caught in the wrong side short term ...
Next Monday 9th -> Thursday 13th...

The actual play from a TA point of view starting to get a bit soft when price breached down 1.139x twice during the week. Money, real money is trap from Friday NFP (including me). Price is not rallying, smell fishy from the break out on Holidays to the lack of reaction on the bad NFP.

From the FA point of view Equities start selling off (via Apple) and finally BOE and the UK put BREXIT on the table and risk start slowly entering in the picture. Dollar rejected the lows and breached back to key 94.4x as a consequence (all this call it live in the thread so you can back track for details) ... here is enough info for me ...time to clear all long NFP Euro positions and change short term outlook until further data (inflation reports)

Quoting sisse
Clearing all longs positions from NFP flow in a scratch trade here. For the sake of the iteration 'reverso' in play for the roll with cheap tickets available aiming to smash stops hanging on air a few ticks below targeting the lows of the 1.12xx handle...
Attached Image


Friday

A simple setup with reports. Any positive news from inflation or retail/consumer sentiment will trigger the stops from NFP .... Inline and overshoots perfectly time ...money getting caught in the wrong side short term...Trap triggered ....hope you learnt the lesson ...

Quote
III. where is the flip now? / IV. where are the extremes? are their new extremes ?

Not the same ...and yes there is a new Top extreme and flip...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,482
  • May 17, 2016 3:31am May 17, 2016 3:31am
Watch out for european equities DAX holding the break 10000 in the second attempt to break up for a extended rally before Brexit/Brexit flop. German numbers ticking up, Apple 'saved by the bell' via Buffet yesterday and the laggers and herd that will follow short term buying in US equities....

Euro may short-circuit in the process putting us back in neutral wide chop zone for the upcoming weeks ...keeping very close eyes on the rest of the session as OIL is also competing the test $48.xx. We are setting for riding the pig and opening the extension $55.xx (with int stop at $50.3x) without profit taking in between in the spring ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,483
  • May 17, 2016 3:38am May 17, 2016 3:38am
Quoting sisse
Watch out for european equities DAX holding the break 10000 in the second attempt to break up for a extended rally before Brexit/Brexit flop.
we should see $50-$55 in time for the OPEC mtg, which may be a non-event, we'll see......otherwise for US equities, the Sell-in-May angst could be a no-show.....I mentioned "Brexit" to a dozen or so people I work with in the last week - none had heard the word.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,484
  • May 17, 2016 3:58am May 17, 2016 3:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}we should see $50-$55 in time for the OPEC mtg, which may be a non-event, we'll see......otherwise for US equities, the Sell-in-May angst could be a no-show.....I mentioned "Brexit" to a dozen or so people I work with in the last week - none had heard the word.....
They will know when Global Equities drop 20% on Europe in turmoil ...

For real don't underestimate it as it can be the most important play of the year in case of a disaster ...Don't say it out loud, the less noise in the environment and the more distracted are the CNBC, etc 'talking heads' and general crowd the easier will be to ride it ... my 50 cents ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,485
  • May 17, 2016 4:08am May 17, 2016 4:08am
Quoting sisse
...Don't say it out loud,
lol, k bro, mum's the word.....laughin alla way to the bank.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,486
  • May 17, 2016 6:07am May 17, 2016 6:07am
You two....
  • #140,487
  • May 17, 2016 7:31am May 17, 2016 7:31am
... inline inflation ...nothing to see...same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,488
  • May 17, 2016 8:13am May 17, 2016 8:13am
Quote
III. where is the flip now? / IV. where are the extremes? are their new extremes ?

Not the same ...and yes there is a new Top extreme and flip...

sisse

Thanks for the explanation to those questions. I am just amazed at how much I don't know that is relevant and how much I do know about markets and TA that is irrelevant.

1. Where is the Flip the now if .1390 is no longer a FLIP? I figured it would be if PRICE goes NORTH back thru it. Is .129x or .118X a new flip level?

2. Where are the extremes now? .134X? .118X?

3. And, I am curious on why you changed OUTLOOK TO NEUTRAL on a BULL candle on that Day Chart you posted. I would have waited until I had at least 4 to 5 of those indecisive candles that closed on the .139X level before thinking NEUTRAL. Then, you changed OUTLOOK TO SELL on the BEAR CANDLE on the 6th iteration. Was that due to it closing below .139X and the facts you mentioned earlier with no momentum for a RUNNER especially on the NFP flop with BULLS getting trapped?

Thanks
Attached Image
  • #140,489
  • May 17, 2016 9:40am May 17, 2016 9:40am
Quoting IMARICH1
2. Where are the extremes now? .134X? .118X?
short term 1.118x yes hasn't change that one. 1.134x is not a extreme ....

Quote
3. And, I am curious on why you changed OUTLOOK TO NEUTRAL on a BULL candle on that Day Chart you posted. I would have waited until I had at least 4 to 5 of those i...

Because i am changing the outlooks based on fundamentals or change in the core underlying of the instrument unless in very few cases is clearly stated in the very short term ('for strictly TA reasons changing etc etc')

You are looking for TA explanation for outlooks and direction. You wont find the answer there ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,490
  • May 17, 2016 9:51am May 17, 2016 9:51am
DXY testing 94.4
  • #140,491
  • May 17, 2016 12:47pm May 17, 2016 12:47pm
Quoting sisse
... inline inflation ...nothing to see...same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
wait, what? CPI 0.4% is almost 5% for the year! The Fed is so far behind the curve now, they will have to hike in June. That's the last CPI before the next FOMC....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,492
  • May 17, 2016 1:11pm May 17, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} short term 1.118x yes hasn't change that one. 1.134x is not a extreme .... {quote} Because i am changing the outlooks based on fundamentals or change in the core underlying of the instrument unless in very few cases is clearly stated in the very short term ('for strictly TA reasons changing etc etc') You are looking for TA explanation for outlooks and direction. You wont find the answer there ... sisse
Sisse, on equities (SP500 for example - as far as I know you have mid term: strong neutral, short term: very soft sell?). But now what has to happen for you to pull the trigger and go short? You said we waiting for some FA trigger to activate the "sell in may go away". But if there is nothing it can still break the short term low and isnt it too late to chase it once it happens?

Im asking cuz every run up is being sold recently and I cannot identify the right time to enter.
  • #140,493
  • May 17, 2016 1:17pm May 17, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}wait, what? CPI 0.4% is almost 5% for the year! The Fed is so far behind the curve now, they will have to hike in June. That's the last CPI before the next FOMC....
Yes. I am also confused. I thought this would maybe put us into a soft sell outlook. Please explain Sisse
  • #140,494
  • May 17, 2016 1:28pm May 17, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}wait, what? CPI 0.4% is almost 5% for the year! The Fed is so far behind the curve now, they will have to hike in June. That's the last CPI before the next FOMC....
in the real world (I'm pretty sure there is one) inflating oil will inflate goods/services across the board......the Fedgeeks know this......anyway, with US equities up 1% one day down 1% the next, ad infinitum, it's kinda hard to read, but the old Fear the Fed boogerbear is never far away.......sell in May, sell in May......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,495
  • May 17, 2016 1:53pm May 17, 2016 1:53pm
Today
Intermarket Analysis
Stock selling Bond are starting to fallow Down hint that FED will Raise Rate next meeting.
This is the Context that i put in for today move.
Good day to play both side of the Game .
1. Bond Down
2. Stock Down
3. EUR Down
4.CPI Tick Up
5. Dollar UP
6. Oil UP
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bond.PNG Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.PNG Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.PNG Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.PNG Size: 57 KB
  • #140,496
  • Edited 3:01pm May 17, 2016 2:08pm | Edited 3:01pm
sisse,

Just to make sure I am understanding this correctly and I know I will be making an elementary question and frustrating you, I have to ask it for my confidence level in my understanding.

SELL OUTLOOK

We can SELL at the extremes .1390 and CENTER .13XX and extreme momentum .118X? I am confused as to why you would SELL at the extreme momentum since this is at the bottom. And, to clarify you sell at the CENTER; but, you have arrows pointing up and down at the CENTER line around .13XX...." you trade the center in the direction"

NY CLOSED above 94.44!

Thanks
Attached Image
  • #140,497
  • Edited 2:21pm May 17, 2016 2:09pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, on equities (SP500 for example - as far as I know you have mid term: strong neutral, short term: very soft sell?). But now what has to happen for you to pull the trigger and go short? You said we waiting for some FA trigger to activate the "sell in may go away". But if there is nothing it can still break the short term low and isnt it too late to chase it once it happens?
Sure.

As Fool is implying we are forming a cluster fuck on the highs. Its a very tricky environment to trade given that we are trying to form a mid term high at ATH so you can imagine the boat is very full (not as full as before after 2015 FED hikes sell off).

On the TA side which is easier to see, bulls are hanging in a very thin line the current lows (the actual real powerful/rain maker mid term level in play is 2059.xx) and sadly the last rally couldn't reach 2090.xx triggering the current chop. In a strict sense there is some tiny crumbs short term still open (2120.xx) and in order to keep the long term trend intact it will be healthy to breach ATH before the selling off ...

On the FA side. Things are a bit more complex. Bastards are holding as long as possible as the upcoming triggers for the rest of the year (at least 2 hikes, potential Brexit and US election) are very bearish for Equities. So basically if you are going to make the year in the books and portfolios is in the current rally and nobody wants to be the sucker to jump out first.

If a few of the major bastards raise the bid, the dominos will follow through one by one triggering the selloff on a rush until it reach the Average Joe that would have given a good chunk of the profits of the last 2 or 3 years waiting for the next correction ...you know the drill...

--> On the actual timing is very hard, OIL is in a strong rally as it caught a lot of investor with their pants down and Europe is staring to show some microscopic signals of ticking up. Apple which lead the last leg down is finding buyers after the 'almighty' Buffet reported that is sitting on APPL. Inflationis pointing out at hikes time but the latest NFP and soft round of numbers is putting the hand break ...

As you can see is a cluster fuck of contradictory forces in the FA side with Equities trying to set a hard mid/long term high at ATH TA wise. My 2 cents (at least what I am doing) is sit in your hands and be extremely trigger shy if key levels are not tested. A extension rally (exhaustion short term) will be easier to trade (both ways, short term 2050 -> 212x and fade ATH -> 1845 and below ...). A sharp direct selloff will require sharp trading skills but I am pretty sure will 'know' the trigger to be ready at least ...

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,498
  • May 17, 2016 2:29pm May 17, 2016 2:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sure. As Fool is implying we are forming a cluster fuck on the highs. Its a very tricky environment to trade given that we are trying to form a mid term high at ATH so you can imagine the boat is very full (not as full as before after 2015 FED hikes sell off). On the TA side which is easier to see, bulls are hanging in a very thin line the current lows (the actual real powerful/rain maker mid term level in play is 2059.xx) and sadly the last rally couldn't reach 2090.xx triggering the current chop. In a strict sense there is some tiny crumbs...
Hmm, awesome From FA makes complete sense. Pretty hard stuff to trade. Will keep tracking!!!

Thank you for the superb explanation

P.S. Pls. We have discussed this problem before - the SP y axis. I could not come to any conclusion. So just one quick question: Whats your today high on your SP500 chart?
  • #140,499
  • May 17, 2016 3:33pm May 17, 2016 3:33pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Just to make sure I am understanding this correctly and I know I will be making an elementary question and frustrating you, I have to ask it for my confidence level in my understanding. SELL OUTLOOK We can SELL at the extremes .1390 and CENTER .13XX and extreme momentum .118X? I am confused as to why you would SELL at the extreme momentum since this is at the bottom. And, to clarify you sell at the CENTER; but, you have arrows pointing up and down at the CENTER line around .13XX...." you trade the center in the direction" Thanks {image}
Those arrows are wrong. It was just a quick sketch I quickly drew on top of the last chart .... the point is not giving you a trading chart but quick reference for you to digest it in your terms !!!!...

In any case, I don't like dumbing down things neither chewing trading concepts as I strongly believe you wont get anywhere except getting dependent on mine or somebody else analysis and never crack it ...

A couple of quick points:

  1. You seem to be forgetting all the discussion about direction. We set the direction on the mid term charts not in the short term.

The iterations are just to get in synch with the markets not to make it a unidimensional plan. If you want to make the short term chart your direction chart fine but you will need to look down for other triggers outside of the main and short swings, FA, news, etc and look somewhere intraday ...

  1. In an outlook sell (or buy) whatever the chart, the break of the last extreme is the sharp momentum leg.

In simple words a 'TREND' is formed. Most newcomers and intraday traders using oscillators (70% of common indicators) will get caught fading the lows (or highs) and sweep (check the hundred of traders and commercial gurus, etc) in every start of a trend going out of business when it happens. A break without return.... While the laggers will start spotting the 'trend' on the last fumes and start drawing TL and channels and thinking they 'discover' the holy grail with MA's, Heiken A. bars etc (the other 30% of common indicators).

  1. I remade the sketch quickly....I am not giving you a trading chart, I am just giving you a reference for you to spot and digest some basic concepts...don't get stuck and obsesses with the micro details in the chart as it's not meant to be for that....

Can you spot the flip now? ...and more importantly what is the main direction we are trading for the swing?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UpdateSketch.png Size: 146 KB


sisse

PS: @chester123 2069.5.x ES, spot 2072.xx
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,500
  • May 17, 2016 3:34pm May 17, 2016 3:34pm
why on earth is eurusd trading range is so small compared to other major currencies move today ...this thing is certainly making a cluster of fuck , I said it before and I still see it blowing on the face of everyone soon enough must have accumulated so much orders in this tiny range to setup the next direction with full power
monthly still points higher and to be honest in certain cases TA takes it over FA whatever happens ...we call it dead cat , squeeze and bs etc... but its the way it is .
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