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EURUSD

  • #1,067,281
  • May 17, 2016 4:40am May 17, 2016 4:40am
Quoting arash66110
Citi: Bearish -EUR EUR dropped as EUR volatility tends to increase in May for the past 10 years. EUR/USD may test lower to 1.1199. Barclays :EUR/USD: Our bearish view was encouraged by the close below support in the 1.1360 area. Our next targets are towards the 1.1215 range lows and then lower towards 1.1125 UOB :EUR/USD: Bearish: Downside potential limited to 1.1215. We turned bearish EUR yesterday but highlighted that the downside potential is likely limited to 1.1215. The rather calm overnight trading has resulted in a quick loss in downward...
Well that looks bad for my view....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,282
  • May 17, 2016 4:46am May 17, 2016 4:46am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well that looks bad for my view....
it is very likely tomorrow's fomc to be hawkish as most fomc member speak about rising rate.
the only hope for sustainable rebound is Thursday after g7.
  • #1,067,283
  • May 17, 2016 4:48am May 17, 2016 4:48am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well that looks bad for my view....
Don't worry, your system looks good, have faith!

Quoting arash66110
Citi: Bearish -EUR EUR dropped as EUR volatility tends to increase in May for the past 10 years. EUR/USD may test lower to 1.1199. Barclays :EUR/USD: Our bearish view was encouraged by the close below support in the 1.1360 area. Our next targets are towards the 1.1215 range lows and then lower towards 1.1125 UOB :EUR/USD: Bearish: Downside potential limited to 1.1215. We turned bearish EUR yesterday but highlighted that the downside potential is likely limited to 1.1215. The rather calm overnight trading has resulted in a quick loss in downward...
Big boys bearish, obviously. It should be with GB data and US data (coming)
...except for the PA players, they are in the bullish phase now
Quoting arash66110
{quote} it is very likely tomorrow's fomc to be hawkish as most fomc member speak about rising rate. the only hope for sustainable rebound is Thursday after g7.
...right, and fomc expected hawkish too
Member
  • #1,067,284
  • May 17, 2016 5:00am May 17, 2016 5:00am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Don't worry, your system looks good, have faith! {quote} Big boys bearish, obviously. It should be with GB data and US data (coming) ...except for the PA players, they are in the bullish phase now {quote} ...right, and fomc expected hawkish too
and who are PA player?
  • #1,067,285
  • May 17, 2016 5:01am May 17, 2016 5:01am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well that looks bad for my view....
Hi HM,
EU 2H Chart:
Perhaps like this?
[Long at 1333
Hedge SL 1313]
Cheers, U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 160517 2H [1].png Size: 49 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #1,067,286
  • May 17, 2016 5:02am May 17, 2016 5:02am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Don't worry, your system looks good, have faith! {quote} Big boys bearish, obviously. It should be with GB data and US data (coming) ...except for the PA players, they are in the bullish phase now {quote} ...right, and fomc expected hawkish too
well thanks...

What do you mean with....
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} ...right, and fomc expected hawkish too
Are you skeptical about this??
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,287
  • May 17, 2016 5:06am May 17, 2016 5:06am
Quoting arash66110
{quote} and who are PA player?
the price action wise guys, who trades blindly'n'proudly only "what they see", "buy dips, sell tops" ...never care about fundamentals or bank forecasts
they're occasionally right, but not most of the time
Member
  • #1,067,288
  • May 17, 2016 5:09am May 17, 2016 5:09am
Quoting Uturn2
{quote} Hi HM, EU 2H Chart: Perhaps like this? [Long at 1333 Hedge SL 1313] Cheers, U2 {image}
Indeed that is what I'm looking for....

Is my view a little what you also expecting? I mean you also a HEW-addict I believe....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,289
  • May 17, 2016 5:09am May 17, 2016 5:09am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} well thanks... What do you mean with.... {quote} Are you skeptical about this??
Happy, if Fed is hawkish it means dollar it will be strong and euro weak, so it encourages bearish E/U forecasts
I like your HEW system, hope is profitable
Member
  • #1,067,290
  • May 17, 2016 5:16am May 17, 2016 5:16am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Happy, if Fed is hawkish it means dollar it will be strong and euro weak, so it encourages bearish E/U forecasts I like your HEW system, hope is profitable
Well it looks my view cq. count is hopeless....

I need to wait for more confirmation of the count e.q. a break above 1.1342!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,291
  • May 17, 2016 5:22am May 17, 2016 5:22am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well it looks my view cq. count is hopeless.... I need to wait for more confirmation of the count e.q. a break above 1.1342!
I am affraid so. If no break @1.1340 means not serious chances for a bullish trend today
Member
  • #1,067,292
  • May 17, 2016 5:31am May 17, 2016 5:31am
some arguments for a possible downwards movement on E/U today (breaking the stupid 2 days range):

- bad news for GBP
- JPY breaks some consolidated resistence
- US data expected to strengthens the USdollar

and just for the record: " Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects that the E/U will be traded at 1.08 at the end of the year"
Member
  • #1,067,293
  • May 17, 2016 5:35am May 17, 2016 5:35am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} I am affraid so. If no break @1.1340 means not serious chances for a bullish trend today
Thanks.... I'm in defensive mode now.... just watching what the market does

Still have a trade running. tp at 1.1298....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,294
  • May 17, 2016 5:39am May 17, 2016 5:39am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Thanks.... I'm in defensive mode now.... just watching what the market does Still have a trade running. tp at 1.1298....
I can be wrong, but you'd better hold your entries until US data are published,
then E/U is expected to move somewhere and break(down?) the range

I'm optimistic about my shorts
Member
  • #1,067,295
  • May 17, 2016 5:41am May 17, 2016 5:41am
Quoting TudorIoan
" Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects that the E/U will be traded at 1.08 at the end of the year"
Well in my view...(it already stands for a long, long time) it is even more worst.... 0.868 (anyway this is an estimate following the calculations and need to fine-tuned in the coming time!)
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,296
  • May 17, 2016 5:45am May 17, 2016 5:45am
hope today's market movement is still according my chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-17 (5min).png Size: 47 KB
Libenter homines id quod volunt credunt
  • #1,067,297
  • May 17, 2016 5:46am May 17, 2016 5:46am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} I can be wrong, but you'd better hold your entries until US data are published, then E/U is expected to move somewhere and break(down?) the range I'm optimistic about my shorts
Wise advice. Step aside and watch! Lol
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,067,298
  • Edited 6:10am May 17, 2016 5:51am | Edited 6:10am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Wise advice. Step aside and watch! Lol
of course is wise. but not for the smart guys who can make a fortune in a stupid 40 pips range, within 100 minutes until the US data good luck!
Member
  • #1,067,299
  • Edited 7:01am May 17, 2016 5:52am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} I can be wrong, but you'd better hold your entries until US data are published, then E/U is expected to move somewhere and break(down?) the range I'm optimistic about my shorts
Thanks...

Well I decided to follow the count....well how to trade with it then?!

So now I'm still running a sell to 1.1298...I let this go.. (also if my view is wrong then still this could be a small winner)
For the rest I need confirmation... so if dollar goes bullish (1.1282 could break...even 1.1272 => this is the low of my low, if below 1.1272 I need to search for a new possible HEW count)

Then it comes to the count I see.... If positive for my view a possible buy. If I'm not that sure than I need to wait for a break of 1.1340 (if not below 1.1282 then a break of 1.1330 would be enough to be bullish) could be a buy opportunity...for me at least...

good luck...I'm in waiting (defensive) mode
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,300
  • May 17, 2016 6:36am May 17, 2016 6:36am
EU 15M Chart:
[ZZ wave -ii-?]
Cheers, U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 160517 15M [1].png Size: 77 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
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