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  • #1,067,261
  • Edited 2:40am May 17, 2016 2:26am | Edited 2:40am
Last day I was searching for the low of our triple (blue wave b). I think we now find him at 1.1282... if we go a little lower it can't come below 1.1272 (then our structure is completely broken....

So I think we now can get higher to 1.1622-64 for completing the blue wave iii
then we can expect a move down if we assume we get 1.1664 we can reach 1.1560
after this we can expect a move to 1.1821 for finishing the blue wave-count...
let see how this move goes...

btw: This scenario is in-line when we look to the count at the USDX (see the second screenshot!)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 24 KB
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,262
  • May 17, 2016 2:31am May 17, 2016 2:31am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} love your "humble" opinion ...hope you're right {quote} Hi. Today's reports on price inflation in the U.S. and the health of American industries should show whether a first-quarter slump was an aberration, don't you agree?
I am expecting mixed US data today. In general, worse than expected but better than previous. Do you have any idea why EURUSD is going up now?
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,067,263
  • May 17, 2016 2:41am May 17, 2016 2:41am
I am flat, seems like eu is bullish, but can't find good enough entry point yet.
  • #1,067,264
  • May 17, 2016 2:44am May 17, 2016 2:44am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} I am expecting mixed US data today. In general, worse than expected but better than previous. Do you have any idea why EURUSD is going up now?
Well, is going up but I hope is just a small correction.
I think is because the pound rises as polls shows that Brexit is less likely and E/U tried to follow for a while ...don't know, or a big bank shot?!
I think will be some volatility today due the most weekly important news but E/U "should" go mainly down
First volatility episode is within an hour at GBP CPI ...watch that!
Member
  • #1,067,265
  • May 17, 2016 3:03am May 17, 2016 3:03am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Well, is going up but I hope is just a small correction. I think is because the pound rises as polls shows that Brexit is less likely and E/U tried to follow for a while ...don't know, or a big bank shot?! I think will be some volatility today due the most weekly important news but E/U "should" go mainly down First volatility episode is within an hour at GBP CPI ...watch that!
You are probably right.
Be sure I will watch that.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,067,266
  • May 17, 2016 3:05am May 17, 2016 3:05am
Quoting Raa
I am flat, seems like eu is bullish, but can't find good enough entry point yet.
closed my EU long +25 yesterday and GU +50​
  • #1,067,267
  • May 17, 2016 3:07am May 17, 2016 3:07am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} You are probably right. Be sure I will watch that.
In my opinion: If we can move above the 1.1342 then this is not a small correction for sure .... but a turn-around... for a (slow?) rally...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,268
  • May 17, 2016 3:09am May 17, 2016 3:09am
Quoting Don96
{quote} closed my EU long +25 yesterday and GU +50​
hehe, Why you closed long? Now bullish wave started. Patiently waiting for my entry.
  • #1,067,269
  • May 17, 2016 3:12am May 17, 2016 3:12am
Quoting Raa
{quote} hehe, Why you closed long? Now bullish wave started. Patiently waiting for my entry.
tbh I don't know, I figured id close and enter on something else or wait for a better entry, I'm on on UJ 109.40 and pending at 109.55, ive had that pending there for years
  • #1,067,270
  • May 17, 2016 3:15am May 17, 2016 3:15am
ill be pissed if it blasts past this 1.1340 level I mentioned yesterday... looking at 1.1370-1.1400 after
  • #1,067,271
  • May 17, 2016 3:16am May 17, 2016 3:16am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} I am expecting mixed US data today. In general, worse than expected but better than previous. Do you have any idea why EURUSD is going up now?
yes. Profit taking, then stop hunting. All normal...... Providing news as expected, I see 1.1265
comments?
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,067,272
  • May 17, 2016 3:18am May 17, 2016 3:18am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} In my opinion: If we can move above the 1.1342 then this is not a small correction for sure .... but a turn-around... for a (slow?) rally...
good morning folks
1.1365 is the resistance. Don't bet the house though
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,067,273
  • May 17, 2016 3:35am May 17, 2016 3:35am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} In my opinion: If we can move above the 1.1342 then this is not a small correction for sure .... but a turn-around... for a (slow?) rally...
Do you expect good news for EUR and bad news for USD?
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} yes. Profit taking, then stop hunting. All normal...... Providing news as expected, I see 1.1265 comments?
Now, after bad UK CPI, GBP should pull EUR down.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,067,274
  • Edited 4:07am May 17, 2016 3:40am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} You are probably right. Be sure I will watch that.
bad, bad, bad, for the pound
...and still the polls rules, holding the pound from sinking at bad news
...we should expect extreme volatility on Brexit pols next period

E/U waiting for US data expected positive for US dollar
Member
  • #1,067,275
  • Edited 3:59am May 17, 2016 3:42am | Edited 3:59am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Do you expect good news for EUR and bad news for USD?
Well that's a good question.... actually I do not look to news...
The wave-count is setting me into the direction.... if not clear then I maybe look at news-events, but often when I look to news it goes just the other way then I think ....

If I look to the wave-count for the EURUSD I come to the conclusion that we maybe saw the low at 1.1282 (1.1272 is the max. low we can get before the count is broken...)
If I look to the USDX I think we just entered the last triple down.... wave x was already there, the new wave a also...the wave b is possibly done...so also here I expect a move down into the wave c for finishing this triple....

If this is ended...then I think the USDX must get more strength....and the EURUSD is then at max....and following the count (with the calculations) a massive move down must come into the eurusd (coupled to news-events.... maybe a BREXIT?!) (all followed from the counts in both...eurusd and usdx... who are in-line with each-other now)

and ofcourse....time will tell if my HEW-view is correct...if it is correct: then the eurusd is getting a real hard time! As long as this count isn't broken, I'm not that optimistic about the outcome of the voting....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,276
  • May 17, 2016 3:48am May 17, 2016 3:48am
Do you have any really reliable source of information about smart money flows?
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,067,277
  • May 17, 2016 3:56am May 17, 2016 3:56am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} bad, bad, bad, for the pound ...and still the pols rules, holding the pound from sinking at bad news ...we should expect extreme volatility on Brexit pols next period E/U waiting for US data expected positive for US dollar
Yeah, Brexit. Logically, it should be good for UK economy to escape from the EU socialist hell but EU propaganda is in top gear because Brexit could encourage some other EU member countries to leave EU too. It is why we can read and hear everywhere that Brexit should bring hell on earth.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,067,278
  • May 17, 2016 3:57am May 17, 2016 3:57am
Quoting TeddyBearish
Do you have any really reliable source of information about smart money flows?
There's no such think as reliable on that.
I expect 100-200 pips/day ups&downs on crazy polls volatility on GBP.
I wonder how that will affect E/U ...even on USD counterparts
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Yeah, Brexit. Logically, it should be good for UK economy to escape from the EU socialist hell but EU propaganda is in top gear because Brexit could encourage some other EU member countries to leave EU too. It is why we can read and hear everywhere that Brexit should bring hell on earth.
One thing is sure, Europe will make it hard for the brits if they live
Member
  • #1,067,279
  • May 17, 2016 4:06am May 17, 2016 4:06am
Quoting HappyMe
Last day I was searching for the low of our triple (blue wave b). I think we now find him at 1.1282... if we go a little lower it can't come below 1.1272 (then our structure is completely broken.... So I think we now can get higher to 1.1622-64 for completing the blue wave iii then we can expect a move down if we assume we get 1.1664 we can reach 1.1560 after this we can expect a move to 1.1821 for finishing the blue wave-count... let see how this move goes... btw: This scenario is in-line when we look to the count at the USDX (see the second screenshot!)...
1.1298 should hold... for being a wave b of wave i

(1.1310 also could our wave b of wave i....!)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 12 KB
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,067,280
  • May 17, 2016 4:37am May 17, 2016 4:37am
Citi: Bearish -EUR
EUR dropped as EUR volatility tends to increase in May for the past 10 years. EUR/USD may test lower to 1.1199.

Barclays :EUR/USD: Our bearish view was encouraged by the close below support in the 1.1360 area. Our next targets are towards the 1.1215 range lows and then lower towards 1.1125

UOB :EUR/USD: Bearish: Downside potential limited to 1.1215. We turned bearish EUR yesterday but highlighted that the downside potential is likely limited to 1.1215. The rather calm overnight trading has resulted in a quick loss in downward momentum but further weakness is still expected after the current short-term consolidation is over. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.1400.

what is common is 1.12 -1.1215
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