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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #60,061
  • May 12, 2016 8:22am May 12, 2016 8:22am
Might go short depending what happens near this 200ma
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  • #60,062
  • May 12, 2016 10:44am May 12, 2016 10:44am
Quoting FSUtrader
Might go short depending what happens near this 200ma {image}
The 200ma corresponds with the 61.8fib now rejected twice. But the 100ma corresponds with the 50fib, now holding support. Watch PA, buy above 109.5x or sell below 108.5x
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  • #60,063
  • May 12, 2016 11:44am May 12, 2016 11:44am
I think it will likely break below the support, considering that very clear double top that has formed at 109.40.
  • #60,064
  • May 12, 2016 6:03pm May 12, 2016 6:03pm
109.00 resistance level is still holding for now.
  • #60,065
  • May 12, 2016 8:26pm May 12, 2016 8:26pm
LT trend has certainly been down, but looming BOJ intervention may have reversed that sentiment with rebound from 105.5. Monthly PP at 108.3 looks like solid support
  • #60,066
  • May 13, 2016 4:46am May 13, 2016 4:46am
I am considering opening a long position, the support at 108.50 is holding and there's a hammer candlestick on the four-hour time frame above that level.
  • #60,067
  • May 13, 2016 7:08pm May 13, 2016 7:08pm
Next Wednesday we have minutes from the April FOMC meeting and very important economic growth figure from Japan, let's see.
  • #60,068
  • May 13, 2016 8:44pm May 13, 2016 8:44pm
I bought at 106.5 and plan on holding until it gets back up into the 120s. This month is not the best for the Yen but June should push it up higher. How long do you usually hold your trades?
  • #60,069
  • May 14, 2016 1:16am May 14, 2016 1:16am
Quoting ZokuCapital
I bought at 106.5 and plan on holding until it gets back up into the 120s. This month is not the best for the Yen but June should push it up higher. How long do you usually hold your trades?
If we get a rate hike from the FED by September then the YEN has a chance of going back towards 120 again otherwise we really could see 100-105
  • #60,070
  • May 14, 2016 5:59am May 14, 2016 5:59am
180 pips on the table here. Already banked nicely on the strong yen on eurjpy you can check my b4 and after posts. UJ seems to fall a little late but it looks weak. My short here depends on the monday open. In case of a big gap down I will try to sell the market on the retracement if it happens. Monday will provide me with clear deciding on this.
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trade safe
G.
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #60,071
  • May 14, 2016 9:25am May 14, 2016 9:25am
I think that usdjpy asset will go down.
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  • #60,072
  • May 16, 2016 4:00am May 16, 2016 4:00am
Quoting MisterG
180 pips on the table here. Already banked nicely on the strong yen on eurjpy you can check my b4 and after posts. UJ seems to fall a little late but it looks weak. My short here depends on the monday open. In case of a big gap down I will try to sell the market on the retracement if it happens. Monday will provide me with clear deciding on this. {image} trade safe G.
Tried to sell it multiple times , UJ seems to be strong , last attempt to short it closed with a loss. There is also a lesson here , even if the signal is of a very good quality but forms on friday close , the weekend will most likely reset the market so more often than not we will have a fresh start on monday.
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If this pair show some wekness later in the day I will reconsider putting sell stop order somwhere , but for now it doesn't seem like this is going to happen , 110 looks like the closest level for the price to act upon.
G.
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #60,073
  • May 16, 2016 1:26pm May 16, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting MisterG
{quote} Tried to sell it multiple times , UJ seems to be strong , last attempt to short it closed with a loss. There is also a lesson here , even if the signal is of a very good quality but forms on friday close , the weekend will most likely reset the market so more often than not we will have a fresh start on monday. {image} If this pair show some wekness later in the day I will reconsider putting sell stop order somwhere , but for now it doesn't seem like this is going to happen , 110 looks like the closest level for the price to act upon. G....
Ok this pair gave me hard time. I am still bearish , right now there is still some room for it to go up. I will be looking to sell it somwhere in the resistance area between 110.000 - 111.00 if a decent price action signal will form , preferably just near the trendline. It would create a good risk reward situation for a nice swing down. Still on the sidelines , time will tell what to do here.
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Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #60,074
  • May 16, 2016 2:35pm May 16, 2016 2:35pm
Resistance IMO is nearer to 112 area.
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  • #60,075
  • May 16, 2016 9:01pm May 16, 2016 9:01pm
Quoting MisterG
{quote} Ok this pair gave me hard time. I am still bearish , right now there is still some room for it to go up. I will be looking to sell it somwhere in the resistance area between 110.000 - 111.00 if a decent price action signal will form , preferably just near the trendline. It would create a good risk reward situation for a nice swing down. Still on the sidelines , time will tell what to do here. {image}
Hi MisterG

What's your thought on this, just an idea:

When you think it is more probable that the pair trend is heading down with minor upward, instead of waiting for PA or other less probable signal, just break to position size 1 to something like 0.2,0.3,0.5 and start shorting regardless of that signal?

You might say the pair could go higher but does that PA or other signal give more confidence that it will not go higher and it is not a false signal? As I see market makers or natural flow of price is as to disturb any possible pattern especially near period changing times. if you look at 1hr, you see plenty of move at x:59 hour.

Regards
...
  • #60,076
  • May 17, 2016 5:06am May 17, 2016 5:06am
Quoting inRoozaan
{quote} Hi MisterG What's your thought on this, just an idea: When you think it is more probable that the pair trend is heading down with minor upward, instead of waiting for PA or other less probable signal, just break to position size 1 to something like 0.2,0.3,0.5 and start shorting regardless of that signal? You might say the pair could go higher but does that PA or other signal give more confidence that it will not go higher and it is not a false signal? As I see market makers or natural flow of price is as to disturb any possible pattern...
Hi
1) I do not break down my position to smaller parts although I know a lot of sucessful traders that do it on a regular bases. Some of them are using stochastic , lets suppose there is an uptrend and the market is consolidating. The idea is to put your longs every time when stochastic is oversold until you reach your position size. It can give you better average entry price. I prefer to put my position in one place place , that's just my approach.

2) Price action gives, you hints , price action signal alone is useless it needs to be put in the context of a certain place on the chart, but it's better to analyze it on the higher TFs beacause as you say , there is a lot of "noise" on the lower frames. The bigger the timeframe the better the signal , but it will take much more time to develop and perform. In terms of 1H timeframe , yes market tends to close on the high/low of a candle just before it ends , and lately it's quite frequent , not sure why , I mean smart money do that a lot , move the market before the close , on any frame but maybe there are other reasons for that , like forex ample ( hehe) high frequency trading algoritms. Not sure. Keep in mind that there is a lot of fake price action to suck retailers into the wrong trade. That's because if you have millions to buy or sell you need to hide your position , the reason is simple , big boys don't want to move the price on themselves. Have a green week !
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #60,077
  • May 17, 2016 9:30am May 17, 2016 9:30am
Quoting MisterG
{quote} Ok this pair gave me hard time. I am still bearish , right now there is still some room for it to go up. I will be looking to sell it somwhere in the resistance area between 110.000 - 111.00 if a decent price action signal will form , preferably just near the trendline. It would create a good risk reward situation for a nice swing down. Still on the sidelines , time will tell what to do here. {image}
Ok news came and now market seems to fall back a little , price rejected the trendline so I would consider short position one more time.
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G.
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #60,078
  • May 17, 2016 9:34am May 17, 2016 9:34am
G did you go short and TP already on UJ?
  • #60,079
  • May 17, 2016 10:10am May 17, 2016 10:10am
Quoting asgcorp
G did you go short and TP already on UJ?
I am already short , tp as shown in a previous post. If current H4 candle closes lower than 108.936 ( the low of the big bull bar ) that will set a new bearish sentiment in the market and will induce a swing to the downside in my opinion. If current H4 bar won't take out the low of that bull bar it won't be such a good signal. I am early in the trade , but if something goes against my judgement I will cut it instantly.
G.
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #60,080
  • May 17, 2016 10:17am May 17, 2016 10:17am
Quoting MisterG
{quote} I am already short , tp as shown in a previous post. If current H4 candle closes lower than 108.936 ( the low of the big bull bar ) that will set a new bearish sentiment in the market and will induce a swing to the downside in my opinion. If current H4 bar won't take out the low of that bull bar it won't be such a good signal. I am early in the trade , but if something goes against my judgement I will cut it instantly. G.
Your short may be correct because I am long on this at 119.17 looking to go up to 110.30 area with a stop of 109.80. I have been on a bit of a wrong pick slide lately. So goig opposite of me may be the right way to go haha.
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