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  • #140,461
  • May 13, 2016 9:16am May 13, 2016 9:16am
Quoting sisse
Clearing all longs positions from NFP flow in a scratch trad...'reverso' in play for the roll ...to smash stops hanging on air [check]a few ticks below targeting the lows of the 1.12xx handle...
...and I will take that. Clearing main target in the Euro on the test 1.128x trailing the remaining for the 'just in case' without much expectations after Europe goes home. All eyes on Dollar and Equities for the close ....

Also we have some winners in the contest ...updates in a few once markets settle after the overshoot. @IMARICH1 I will in a few that was the whole topic of this iteration " simple R:R in play for opening the discussion on money getting caught in the wrong side short term"

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,462
  • May 13, 2016 9:52am May 13, 2016 9:52am
I've been looking for a break on GBP as the Brexit vote nears. My outlook is SELL due to risk. I'm already short the GBP/USD pair.

My thoughts:
1. Yesterday's BOE projections were revised downwards. Their base assumption for their projection was that the Brexit vote would be to stay. So recent negative outlook from BOE is their best case scenario.
2. Carney was reported to say that BOE could lower rates if needed if Brexit vote were to leave.
3. BOE projection on rates pushed out the next planned rate rise to over 1 year from now at the earliest, and only up 0.1% in 2 years. This is far less than the Fed projection of 2 more 0.25% rate rises this year.

While I understand risk has supposedly pushed the pair down some already (Carney said something like 4.5% of the recent drop due to Brexit risk), the risk is not going to go away before the vote unless polls change significantly.

TA-wise, last week had a strong bear piercing candle. Daily looks like it will break 1.437x level, which was a strong support and the 20MA is about to start heading down (next week it will absent a big rally).

Looks to me like minimum target will be 1.420x and possibly on down to retest 1.40x. The only reason to buy that I can see would be those who are speculating on a Brexit remain/stay vote, and I'd say why buy here, and not at 1.42 or 1.4?
defense wins championships
  • #140,463
  • May 13, 2016 1:57pm May 13, 2016 1:57pm
... and we have a winner. Simple ride and in a not so simple trade because the setup was a bit more advanced than the last 5 iterations. Well done sanvulture, chronicle, CommercialB, eborn, Grinsakh.


Quoting sisse
.... ++++ Quick Call 6 (update 1) ++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.133x (elapsed time 0 day 12 hours)

++++ Quick Call 6 (final update) ++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.128x (total time 0 day 16 hours)


-> LMT BUY 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.148x | STP => 1.133x | max r:r -=> 2:1

hoom

NMZee

build11

Replicant

goosebone


-> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP1 => 1.128x | STP => 1.143x | max r:r -=> 2:1[check]

sanvulture

chronical

CommercialB

eborn

Grinsakh


--> This iteration is the first REAL live trading set variation, a simple R:R in play for opening the discussion on money getting caught in the wrong side short term ...

It was great the trade panned out flawlessly to show the point on the iteration. I received many questions about this iteration from the levels that held to the tick and why it was called in advance yesterday to why the outlook changed .... plenty of info to discuss so lets try to addressed in the next few post/days.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,464
  • May 13, 2016 2:44pm May 13, 2016 2:44pm
Congrats to those that won as that was the the trade I was willing to take IF I had more data, DOLLAR moved past 94.44 and OUTLOOK was SELL and not NEUTRAL at the time. In retrospect of how I used to trade, I made a good call on this one FOR ME.

".... plenty of info to discuss so lets try to addressed in the next few post/days"-sisse

I take this to mean you finally have uncorked a bottle of wine and are ready to dive into the torment that awaits you!

Appreciate your TIME!
  • #140,465
  • Edited 3:34pm May 13, 2016 2:50pm | Edited 3:34pm
Ok again lets start from the basics first with Imarich1 questions.

Quoting IMARICH1
However, it appears you switched your OUTLOOK to SELL in EU prior to US data. Therefore, do you trade SELL differently? ....
I thought we already move from this point. Re read this and the follow ups. Go back to the basic chart posted there:

Quoting sisse
... An outlook sell/buy just tell you that you will be better on the short/long...

.... " 1. An outlook it just show you the path of least resistance.

-> An outlook sell/buy just tell you that you will be better on the short/long side. The sooner you spot the change and the higher you sell/buy the less risk. Trade only the extreme of the side down/or up. Avoid fading the pullbacks/retraces.
-> An outlook neutral just tell you that both sides are equally risky. Fade the extremes. Avoid trading the breaks.

I made a quick chart. Study it, memorise it, make it yours in your own words and TA experience ...we'll move from there later..." ....

Quote
Can you explain why you would take a position prior to the news

Ok here is the first key point. Read this post and the many other in the last few days/weeks and years in the thread related to the same but in a nutshell:

Quoting sisse
{ FA is not about being an Analyst that got it always all right, neither is about 'trading the news'. Is about defining the direction in a map so you can trade in a stricter, consistent but more measurable way aligned with the macro EXPECTATIONS that main investors and trend setter use to make portfolio and investment decisions ....
Second you are confusing a major policy announcement (e.g rate cut/hike / QE announcement, etc) with an usual scheduled report during a normal week. Why would you wait for a regular news reaction to take a trade?. Sure there are cases you may need to play it with the reports but these are regular reports not game changers....

You are forgetting we are trading a map a dynamic map. What you are doing is trying to 'trade the news'. Why do you want to do that? I wont recommend doing that with such small reports as the volatility and the levels in play are too small to have a decent edge so if you are pretending to wait for the reaction (if any) you will end up in the never ending intraday chasing and lagger group!!!!.

Quote
...your OUTLOOK to SELL in EU.
Quote
...and prior to Flip level being confirmed breached?

TBC ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,466
  • Edited 3:29pm May 13, 2016 3:00pm | Edited 3:29pm
Therefore, do you trade SELL differently? ....--IMARICH1
I thought we already move from this point.---sisse

"Trade only the extreme of the side down/or up".---sisse

IMARICH1 states:
I was referring to that I didn't think we were at an extreme @.139X unless your definition and mine are different. An extreme to me would have been .161X or .1450X-2 tops on Daily chart and 1 top on Weekly.

I didn't know why we sold there at .139X. unless it was considered an EXTREME because we were at the FLIP LEVEL.

sisse states:
"Second you are confusing a major policy announcement (e.g rate cut/hike / QE announcement, etc) with an usual scheduled report during a normal week. Why would you wait for a regular news reaction to take a trade?"

IMARICH1 states:
Good point! I fell asleep on this one. I was trading the news as a mover and shaker since it dealt with INFLATION #'s. I saw this report sending the EU to 1.17 in the next few sessions(3 days) if data was SOFT again and sending it to .111X (3 days) if data was very good in next few sessions.

And as far as direction....I lack so miserably here. MY OUTLOOK MID TERM is SHORT. We have been in SHORT term mode (Months)for awhile and continuing to make new HIGHS @(EXTENSION and EXHAUSTION PHASE). Therefore, taking a trade prior to news didn't seem rational given the fact we have continued HIGHER in the midst of US economy far better than GU and EU for reasons previously discussed and getting SOFT DATA from US. Made me confused on if we were still going to be in SHORT TERM LEG or Turning to MID TERM LEG.
  • #140,467
  • May 13, 2016 3:37pm May 13, 2016 3:37pm
Quote
...and prior to Flip level being confirmed breached?

Ok before we start digging in the FA side let me give you the chart update from the same iterations. I think you will have plenty of things to study with the conversations and this simple chart update .... we'll dig into the FA and detailed TA later...

sisse

Here is the iterations chart update

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th iteration.png Size: 150 KB


Here is the sketch we made a few weeks ago before anything happened as example to explain outlooks ... any similarities ???
can you tell why longs in Nfp strictly TA wise?
where is the flip now?
where are the extremes? are the new extremes ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Outlook sell.png Size: 191 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,468
  • May 13, 2016 4:03pm May 13, 2016 4:03pm
Dollar held the break 94.4x on the close triggering early imminent mid and long term bottom alerts The bottom is around the corner and it's a major one that may last way beyond this year.

Equities held, Euro back to key 1.128x for the mid term, YEN and CAD about to enter in chop/neutral. The other key one as expected with Brexit entering into the trading picture, Sterling losing foot one more time and GU lost 1.437x unlocking one more time the HUGE uncertainty black hole below ....

Got the data i needed. Not much to do here same levels, same trades same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,469
  • May 13, 2016 4:28pm May 13, 2016 4:28pm
Quoting sisse
.... Got the data i needed. Not much to do here same levels, same trades same all... sisse
US equities farted out a little red candle for the week. This consol top around spoos 2,050 is starting to piss me off, pretty sure we will see the end of it next week. Just need the planets to keep grinding toward alignment. OPEC wild card to throw a wrench in the works for bearish trades? Well, still a few weeks til then......I rather like the idea of equities sliding toward the end of the month and then seeing OPEC doing what they can to smother the crude rally. The sell in May, dream away fantasy is still alive.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,470
  • May 13, 2016 6:45pm May 13, 2016 6:45pm
Looks like a buy to me.

eu - h4

Have a better one lower (pictured) after some conversation with Mr Rock

1.247x is still very much valid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4.png Size: 24 KB
  • #140,471
  • May 14, 2016 3:18am May 14, 2016 3:18am
Quoting sisse
To wrap it up ...FA is not about being an Analyst that got it always all right, neither is about 'trading the news'. Is about defining the direction in a map so you can trade in a stricter, consistent but more measurable way aligned with the macro EXPECTATIONS that main investors and trend setter use to make portfolio and investment decisions .... sisse
Great post Sisse. And very important summary (quoted above).
You reap what you sow.
  • #140,472
  • Edited 3:58pm May 15, 2016 12:22pm | Edited 3:58pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Looks like a buy to me. eu - h4 Have a better one lower (pictured) after some conversation with Mr Rock 1.247x is still very much valid {image}
I've been looking at the 4h a little different; like the attached. But your river and mine lead to the same sea. Only difference maybe mine has a possible waterfall along the way (down to the 1167/42 area)

bottom one (1D) maybe clearer
This setup I first looked at thanks to a conversation and some charts between you and Rockerzeus couple weeks back. (Credit where due). Has your outlook on it changed? Not a challenge of any kind. Just want to learn from you guys when I can.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU3.JPG Size: 123 KB
Attached Image
  • #140,473
  • May 15, 2016 12:39pm May 15, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Looks like a buy to me. eu - h4 Have a better one lower (pictured) after some conversation with Mr Rock 1.247x is still very much valid {image}
I had 1.1283 :0 I'm in at 93 but ill re enter if it gets lower
  • #140,474
  • May 15, 2016 4:03pm May 15, 2016 4:03pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I've been looking at the 4h a little different; like the attached. But your river and mine lead to the same sea. Only difference maybe mine has a possible waterfall along the way (down to the 1167/42 area) bottom one (1D) maybe clearer This setup I first looked at thanks to a conversation and some charts between you and Rockerzeus couple weeks back. (Credit where due). Has your outlook on it changed? Not a challenge of any kind. Just want to learn from you guys when I can. {image} {image}
Yes, those two are biggies for me (and probably rock) as well- lots of confluence there for multiple mofus / quarters / pps / targets

As for my outlook on EU? No- still bullish to me. US numbers as a whole still weak although inflation in line..

everything pending brexit, which I don't think will happen > thus still bullish EU. Once in the 1.2xxx areas I'll be looking to short for sub 1.xxx....that's been the plan since last year for me, longer for others like Mr. Hatch & gator

What has the EU done since the first (and so far only) hike?
  • #140,475
  • May 15, 2016 7:11pm May 15, 2016 7:11pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yes, those two are biggies for me (and probably rock) as well- lots of confluence there for multiple mofus / quarters / pps / targets As for my outlook on EU? No- still bullish to me. US numbers as a whole still weak although inflation in line.. everything pending brexit, which I don't think will happen > thus still bullish EU. Once in the 1.2xxx areas I'll be looking to short for sub 1.xxx....that's been the plan since last year for me, longer for others like Mr. Hatch & gator What has the EU done since the first (and so far only)...
Thanks for the reply. I am also long term bearish on eu and have sub parity targets for it. I think of this rise in an almost dead cat frame of reference with help from 1.22 norm. Any longs I take here I think will be leading the setup for a larger 'more important' short. But, of course, I remain open to anything pa brings and reserve the right to be wronger than school on Sunday.
  • #140,476
  • Edited May 16, 2016 1:56pm May 15, 2016 11:29pm | Edited May 16, 2016 1:56pm
I. Here is the sketch we made a few weeks ago before anything happened as example to explain outlooks ... any similarities ???

Yes it appears the levels WERE close to where we WERE are CURRENTLY.

The First Five iterations were in NEUTRAL OUTLOOK.

1. The First iteration would have been a SELL in that range and at the extreme of .1390.

2. The Second and Third iterations were in the middle or center and were NO TRADES.

3. The Fourth iteration was at the extreme .139X and was a SELL but PRICE went way NORTH at the EXHAUSTION LEVEL and possibly the BULLS Capitulation. This one went opposite of how it should have unless it was due to an FA due to the GDP and ISM US data

4. The Fifth iteration was at the extreme and was a SELL.

THEN OUTLOOK CHANGED TO SELL which I didn't pick up on why it CHANGED as I was waiting on other data.

5. The 6th iteration was at the extreme and was a SELL

-----Now if the 7 iteration shows PRICE in the MIDDLE of this range @(.139X to .134X), I will SELL as you can SELL in the MIDDLE if OUTLOOK is SELL.



II. can you tell why longs in Nfp strictly TA wise?

Yes because we were above the FLIP Level of .139X
Lots of soft and non soft hands trading the TREND
FA will alert SMART traders of the change in TREND and will be LOADING
Expect a SHORT sweat-meaning it may go against your trade for a bit
BULLS will become trapped and it will create MOMENTUM

III. where is the flip now?

same..... .1390


IV. where are the extremes? are their new extremes ?
I don't know. .161X and .118x.............edit: .1390 and .118X?????

Think I only answered 1 out of the 4 questions right.....

I want to understand your definition of extremes. I looked over your iteration chart and noticed in all the iterations that the extremes were at .139X and not the TOPS. Extreme to me means areas where price went to and didn't go any farther as in a TOP or BOTTOM. .161X looks like an extreme and so does .145X but they are not. So is an extreme more about where price comes back and forth thru like a FLIP or a SUPPORT or RESISTANCE ZONE?
  • #140,477
  • May 16, 2016 2:41am May 16, 2016 2:41am
/CL headed for $47.xx today, $50 in May no prob, what will OPEC do come June? I am counting on them to squelch the rally....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,478
  • May 16, 2016 5:37am May 16, 2016 5:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yes, those two are biggies for me (and probably rock) as well- lots of confluence there for multiple mofus / quarters / pps / targets As for my outlook on EU? No- still bullish to me. US numbers as a whole still weak although inflation in line.. everything pending brexit, which I don't think will happen > thus still bullish EU. Once in the 1.2xxx areas I'll be looking to short for sub 1.xxx....that's been the plan since last year for me, longer for others like Mr. Hatch & gator What has the EU done since the first (and so far only) hike?...
GU?
i've got a few levels here and closes below ill close out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 25 KB
  • #140,479
  • May 16, 2016 8:19am May 16, 2016 8:19am
Quoting Don96
{quote} GU? i've got a few levels here and closes below ill close out {image}
i have a pending 4198
  • #140,480
  • May 16, 2016 4:17pm May 16, 2016 4:17pm
Very decent day across the board.

Equities starting to cough again on every rally but still holding May. More importantly for today, clearing all, in an all but a flawless trade in OIL. Flat since the energies close tiny crumbs away from final target $48.xx.... we are entering into key mid term levels. We will need more and strong DATA to unlock the extension to $56.xx but not interested right now in looking there ....

Quoting sisse
update from the FED/M close combo:

OIL following though $44.4x holding the break [check] on the Energies close unlocks $48.xx [check] for the Spring and will trigger

--> change of short term outlook from Neutral to BUY.
On currencies nothing to see with Dollar fighting to form a short/mid and long term bottom so all chop across the majors with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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