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  • #140,441
  • May 13, 2016 3:32am May 13, 2016 3:32am
Sisse,

Usdx rejects 94.40 an hour ago exactly as you indicated it to be a significant level. Im curious to know what the significance is of this level. I have been searching for a few days but is unsure about the significance.
  • #140,442
  • May 13, 2016 3:44am May 13, 2016 3:44am
Quoting Savager
Sisse, Usdx rejects 94.40 an hour ago exactly as you indicated it to be a significant level. Im curious to know what the significance is of this level. I have been searching for a few days but is unsure about the significance.
I would be cautious about the rejection. the morning flow stopped there on H1 TF, which basically means nothing because the lvl“s sugnificant on short/mid/long term lvl, the lvl may be gone intraday in a few hours.
  • #140,443
  • May 13, 2016 3:52am May 13, 2016 3:52am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I would be cautious about the rejection. the morning flow stopped there on H1 TF, which basically means nothing because the lvls sugnificant on short/mid/long term lvl, the lvl may be gone intraday in a few hours.
Point taken Chester . Still curious about the 94.40 level that Sisse highlighted as significant for the last few days.
  • #140,444
  • May 13, 2016 3:58am May 13, 2016 3:58am
Quoting Savager
{quote} Point taken Chester . Still curious about the 94.40 level that Sisse highlighted as significant for the last few days.
I leave that part to him cuz I have no idea how he identifies his lvls. But they work perfectly
  • #140,445
  • May 13, 2016 4:43am May 13, 2016 4:43am
Quoting build11
you gotta love it . 113.287 Sisse , you are the master at picking these levels .
Don't get too stuck with that 1.133x as it was a soft level. It's gone now and it wont have any further impact in general ...

Quoting Savager
Sisse, Usdx rejects 94.40 an hour ago exactly as you indicated it to be a significant level. Im curious to know what the significance is of this level. I have been searching for a few days but is unsure about the significance.
Good you are tracking 94.4x that is THE and rain maker level across the FX board. Two points:

 

  1. As chester123 pointed out this is a MAJOR short, mid and long term level so a micro test is way beyond the scope of what is in play in these area.
  2. Don't forget US is sleeping and we have numbers coming. Meaning you are just seeing the impact the other currencies in the DX (especially via euro this morning). NY will wake up and Dollar will take control ...All eyes on 94.4x for the W close...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,446
  • May 13, 2016 5:10am May 13, 2016 5:10am
Quoting sisse
Good you are tracking 94.4x that is THE and rain maker level across the FX board. Two points: As chester123 pointed out this is a MAJOR short, mid and long term level so a micro test is way beyond the scope of what is in play in these area. Don't forget US is sleeping and we have numbers coming. Meaning you are just seeing the impact the other currencies in the DX (especially via euro this morning). NY will wake up and Dollar will take control ...All eyes on 94.4x for the W close... sisse
Really appreciate your response Sisse. Your knowledge and opinion is well respected.
  • #140,447
  • May 13, 2016 5:12am May 13, 2016 5:12am
Forgive my ignorance, What chart do you use for US dollar referring to 94.40.
Thanks
  • #140,448
  • May 13, 2016 5:14am May 13, 2016 5:14am
Quoting clayjay
Forgive my ignorance, What chart do you use for US dollar referring to 94.40. Thanks
Usd Index chart
  • #140,449
  • May 13, 2016 5:17am May 13, 2016 5:17am
Quoting The Fool
Keep in mind I'm just a guy named "The Fool" making stupid comments on an internet forum...
Hey man, I hear ya! I'm an old fool too because I didn't even get the number of permutations right . It's 8 (2 x 2 x 2), not 9. And this assumes that they're all binary events, which isn't really so in the case of OPEC.

Anyway, like I said, it's fun listening to and giving opinions... just have to be careful it doesn't affect my trading much.

I'm fascinated by the concept of trading volatility and would like to ask you a bit more about it, but really stretched for time right now so will get back to you later. Thanks!
You reap what you sow.
  • #140,450
  • May 13, 2016 5:21am May 13, 2016 5:21am
[quote=sisse;8924602]{quote} Don't get too stuck with that 1.133x as it was a soft level. It's gone now and it wont have any further impact in general ...

point taken . I never had 133x as a level . ( have to work on that ) My level was 1350 ish . I'm just using mids and 1/4s of long tf and mid tf for s & r levels. Will try to post some charts this weekend if anyone wants to comment.

Thanks for all you do here. You are truly teaching a old dog new tricks !!

Have a great weekend all.
Peace
  • #140,451
  • May 13, 2016 6:13am May 13, 2016 6:13am
Quoting sisse
DAX and CAC still sitting with imminent break alerts since early this week. German numbers came slightly better than expected so NY playing ball with a decent numbers will be enough ... sisse
is it playing short term "good news = good news" (and not "good news = bad news" through hikes) ?

For today I was more thinking that soft/weak numbers from US will help equities to break up with Dollar being sold...
  • #140,452
  • May 13, 2016 6:34am May 13, 2016 6:34am
Quoting Savager
{quote} Usd Index chart
Thanks Sav code DXY
  • #140,453
  • May 13, 2016 7:08am May 13, 2016 7:08am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Very good point NorthTrader,.... Over-analyzing fundamentals is good up to a certain point for your own personal development but you should not use that info for trading unless you know that others have this information as well and even more importantly know how this piece of info is going to affect their trading.
The whole iterations set we have been discussing was triggered because a few traders around were trying/or complaining to grasp how Fundamentals affect markets. If you go a few pages back there is a key starting points on the types of FA moves.

However we stopped before going into details because there is no point of going into deep and more complex details if a trader doesn't have the core and basic tools in trading clear. Trying to learn to drive a F1 car without even knowing how to drive a stick car is a no no...

In any case, going back to the FA topic. The first and more important distinction is between Academic/Analysis economics/finance and the impact of those factors when trading.

There is an overlap obviously in some key elements but the main issue is that most retail (no institutional) traders have a hard time grasping the logic and impact behind economic factors while a pure analyst will never grasp the idea behind speculative trading and profiting from expectations instead of facts.

The first thing to do is dividing the 'types' of FA factors that influence a particular instrument. There is a very detailed post in the thread about this but we can come back to details later.

In general you use FA for defining direction not necessarily for 'trading the news'. In a FX pair. There are 3 major FA factors:

 

  1. Macro policies and numbers (interest rates being the key ones, QE, inflation, GDP, employment, rate differentials, bands, etc etc) The trends in macro numbers (no one off number) define expectations and direction. Some of them can be very quick and dramatic like a the SNB raising the band floot and making the CHF collapse 12000 ticks in 1 hour, etc but in general this is where you want to expend most of your time analysing and discussing. why? If you get right macro direction you will be 100 miles aways of the rest and your W% will fly while your risk will dramatically reduce ....despite the TA you are using to actually trade
  2. Scheduled reports like the ones coming in a few minutes. Here is where traders get messed up. On rough terms these reports ARE NOT GAME CHANGERS neither necessarily tradable all the time. What they often do is first setting trends to keep an eye for changes in macro policies and for trading give you the ebb and flow (pullback or continuation) of the inner legs within the macro direction.
  3. Unexpected externalities Nothing you can do a earthquake, hurricane, bomb, strike, fire, etc etc there is nothing you can do. There are sharp WTF moments that are 99.99% of the time SHORT-LIVED because 'nobody' is trading them so they most of the time 'come back to square one' to allow real money to ride it if the news has an impact beyond the knee jerk reaction ....

To wrap it up ...FA is not about being an Analyst that got it always all right, neither is about 'trading the news'. Is about defining the direction in a map so you can trade in a stricter, consistent but more measurable way aligned with the macro EXPECTATIONS that main investors and trend setter use to make portfolio and investment decisions ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,454
  • May 13, 2016 7:24am May 13, 2016 7:24am
Eyes on reports. Expecting inline (meaning higher) or better inflation numbers but a underwhelming retail and consumer confidence. Markets need a push from somewhere to keep the rally afloat in equities. An overshoot in inflation will put June hikes with a strong back but softer macro numbers will derail it leaving us in the status quo until further data.

Eyes on Dollar from the inflation front and Equities for consumer sentiment. 94.4x and 2059.xx for the W roll in play respectively. For the Euro, trading air at these levels and it will move as collateral of the board. Inline in both for a mini zigzag to the 1.12xx handle to find a floor for the W roll. Only a major flop will short-circuit short term the board to get back to the 1.14xx handle ...any other combination just add chop in the current leg....

Not much to do here, same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,455
  • May 13, 2016 7:33am May 13, 2016 7:33am
...important overshoots in both numbers, inflation inline. Watch out 94.4x in Dollar ...setting the yearly low for 2016 is around the corner ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,456
  • May 13, 2016 7:37am May 13, 2016 7:37am
Quoting sisse
Eyes on reports. Expecting inline (meaning higher) or better inflation numbers but a underwhelming retail and consumer confidence. Markets need a push from somewhere to keep the rally afloat in equities. An overshoot in inflation will put June hikes with a strong back but softer macro numbers will derail it leaving us in the status quo until further data. Eyes on Dollar from the inflation front and Equities for consumer sentiment. 94.4x and 2059.xx for the W roll in play respectively. For the Euro, trading air at these levels and it will move as...
hmm, good retail, soft inflation = definitely good for equities. If sentiment gives hand we may be up for another run up on SP500 while saving FTSE for the W roll for now!
  • #140,457
  • May 13, 2016 7:46am May 13, 2016 7:46am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hmm, good retail, soft inflation = definitely good for equities. If sentiment gives hand we may be up for another run up on SP500 while saving FTSE for the W roll for now!
Well inflation was not soft really. 0.2 was on target and is on the FED side of the equation.

We still need NY and Consumer Confidence (which has more leverage for today) but in either case will be good for equities via rates (in a soft flop) or via economic numbers (in a better number). Watch out for Apple too on the W close 90.xx as it's the rain maker in US equities for the rest of the spring ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,458
  • May 13, 2016 7:53am May 13, 2016 7:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well inflation was not soft really. 0.2 was on target and is on the FED side of the equation. We still need NY and Consumer Confidence (which has more leverage for today) but in either case will be good for equities via rates (in a soft flop) or via economic numbers (in a better number). Watch out for Apple too on the W close 90.xx as it's the rain maker in US equities for the rest of the spring ... sisse
Still as you said last month though, inflation is inline- but every other number coming out of US has been weak with the exception of retail today
  • #140,459
  • May 13, 2016 8:03am May 13, 2016 8:03am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Still as you said last month though, inflation is inline- but every other number coming out of US has been weak with the exception of retail today
Yes there is softening in US numbers including key NFP. Consumer confidence is the only one left from the majors. Don't forget we are not looking for good numbers to start pouring from the US and for Equities to break much higher but we are tracking when they will raise the bid which is a different issue.

In simple words we are looking for the trigger to 'sell in may' or if we are going to hang there until last minute with FED/Brexit. Good numbers in retail and consumer (if we get those) only keep us in the status quo for a bit longer.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,460
  • Edited 8:36am May 13, 2016 8:15am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Thanks for allowing me in. However, I am more biased SHORT since we lost .138X for the Roll. But, DOLLAR still has not conquered the 94.4x level. And, NEWS is around the corner. If I SHORT here, as I want to with a tight stop; then, I violate my RULE of not SELLING from the INSIDE in a NEUTRAL OUTLOOK unless this FLIP area Changes the OUTLOOK which I can't say it should since FA has not shown us this direction at the moment. I took Neutral again because I don't have enough info to confirm this FLIP level has truly been FLIPPED yet.
sisse,

Can you explain why you would take a position prior to the news and prior to Flip level being confirmed breached? Again, I was looking for the DOLLAR to gain momentum and break the 94.44 level and close there this week prior to taking any position. For the sake of the exercise, what were you trying to show? I got the trade direction right but didn't take the trade due to my Outlook still being NEUTRAL without any data or DOLLAR below 94.44.

However, it appears you switched your OUTLOOK to SELL in EU prior to US data. Therefore, do you trade SELL differently? And, Why did you change OUTLOOK PRIOR to news or US DATA or DOLLAR under 94.44?

In NEUTRAL you don't trade from the inside. On SELL do you trade at FLIP levels or ect? Just wanting to see if you will share some TA with us today.

Thanks!
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