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USD/CAD

  • #9,981
  • May 7, 2016 6:39am May 7, 2016 6:39am
For those that might be interested:


Inserted Video
  • #9,982
  • May 7, 2016 8:19am May 7, 2016 8:19am
another side to this
Feds very likely to hold Interest rates as is considering general slowing of economy and signs showing less job creation and more unemployment collected.
USD may decline further that will effect EU 117+ GU 148+UC below 125 in few months even less.
There are no more fundamentals for continued USD gains unless Feds do the unthinkable and raise again...with election coming up I doubt it otherwise Dems will take a beating.

I am short
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,983
  • May 7, 2016 8:38am May 7, 2016 8:38am
Quoting JaredSA
For those that might be interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgFxbpdcOJg
The only thing that saved you was the supply at 1.29290 area,exactly where your initial SL was and not the fibo,hence that's why price completely ignored the 38% retrace level.
Good luck
  • #9,984
  • May 7, 2016 12:45pm May 7, 2016 12:45pm
With all the selling last week I wouldn't be surprised if they use a wide gap down to lock out people from shorting. Weekend gap will be interesting for sure.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,985
  • May 7, 2016 1:20pm May 7, 2016 1:20pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
With all the selling last week I wouldn't be surprised if they use a wide gap down to lock out people from shorting. Weekend gap will be interesting for sure.
Good luck for your shorts....Nothing wrong if you want to believe in whatever you want...But it doesn't mean what you believe in is the right thing...But if this makes you feel better, then do it...
  • #9,986
  • May 7, 2016 2:39pm May 7, 2016 2:39pm
Good move last week.
  • #9,987
  • May 7, 2016 5:17pm May 7, 2016 5:17pm
Quoting arigoldman
Good move last week.
It's a trap move.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,988
  • May 7, 2016 6:08pm May 7, 2016 6:08pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} It's a trap move.
Rahul what do you say about those wildfires in canada ...they will impact the crude oil which in turn will make a reaction to usdcad ???
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #9,989
  • May 7, 2016 7:04pm May 7, 2016 7:04pm
Quoting procrude
{quote} Rahul what do you say about those wildfires in canada ...they will impact the crude oil which in turn will make a reaction to usdcad ???
no clue about the wildfires. but I should note oil will go up because retail money is short it. All I know is that smart money sold heavily into the USDCAD rise last week. The whole purpose of the move is to sucker people into longs before a crash.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,990
  • May 7, 2016 8:00pm May 7, 2016 8:00pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} no clue about the wildfires. but I should note oil will go up because retail money is short it. All I know is that smart money sold heavily into the USDCAD rise last week. The whole purpose of the move is to sucker people into longs before a crash.
Thanks Rahul ! Lets see.... i am short on USDCAD also
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #9,991
  • May 7, 2016 8:20pm May 7, 2016 8:20pm
Someone with bets on USDCAD obviously started the wildfires.... But who!?
  • #9,992
  • May 7, 2016 9:09pm May 7, 2016 9:09pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} no clue about the wildfires. but I should note oil will go up because retail money is short it. All I know is that smart money sold heavily into the USDCAD rise last week. The whole purpose of the move is to sucker people into longs before a crash.
This FIRE is not small
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/07/americ...e-2/index.html

This will devastate Canadian economy and the longer it goes the higher ucad will climb.
The other thing it might also do is devastate oil production and exploration.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,993
  • May 7, 2016 9:21pm May 7, 2016 9:21pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} This FIRE is not small http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/07/americ...e-2/index.html This will devastate Canadian economy and the longer it goes the higher ucad will climb. The other thing it might also do is devastate oil production and exploration.
This is will tell you how big a thing this is for oil production in canada

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_oil_sands
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,995
  • May 7, 2016 10:24pm May 7, 2016 10:24pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} This is will tell you how big a thing this is for oil production in canada https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_oil_sands
I think such unique situation may change the strong correlation between the Canadian currency and the oil price in the short/medium term.
If this affects the oil production in Canada which has a commodity currency, this will certainly harm the Canadian economy and accordingly currency devaluation.
Meanwhile, this wildfire should affect the oil production which accordingly should increase the oil price.
Two contradictory effects on the currency.
Result will be the NET EFFECT about which factor will be stronger than the other.
Days will tell.
  • #9,996
  • Edited May 8, 2016 5:54am May 7, 2016 10:41pm | Edited May 8, 2016 5:54am
Quoting ahmedfouad77
{quote} I think such unique situation may change the strong correlation between the Canadian currency and the oil price in the short/medium term. If this affects the oil production in Canada which has a commodity currency, this will certainly harm the Canadian economy and accordingly currency devaluation. Meanwhile, this wildfire should affect the oil production which accordingly should increase the oil price. Two contradictory effects on the currency. Result will be the NET EFFECT about which factor will be stronger than the other. Days will tell....
Canada is 5th largest producer but in retrospect is only 30% of usa's production....losing 1% of world production might bring up oil prices but the actual economic damage it will have on Canada is much more devastating.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,997
  • May 7, 2016 10:45pm May 7, 2016 10:45pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} Canada is 5th largest producer but in retrospect is only 30% of usa's production....losing 10% of world production might bring up oil prices but the actual economic damage it will have on Canada is much more devastating.
So we are a talking about the strong correlation Canadian dollar and Oil may reach to an end at least in the short/medium term?
  • #9,998
  • May 7, 2016 10:55pm May 7, 2016 10:55pm
Quoting mrhigurashi
{quote} Your wrong about the earthquakes. That was Godzilla. Its a government cover up. There was no earthquake. The tsunami was caused by Godzilla. Why do you think the Fukushima power plant was attacked? You have been tricked into thinking it was "Man Made". Godzilla is not man made.... Japan is able to control Godzilla by giving him some nuclear power every now and then but cover it up as something else.
I totally agree here because the government had accicdently leaked a picture of Godzilla right before the earthquake. It wierd to see someone else with the same view point. Godzilla also blows fire out his mouth which could have easily caused the USDCAD bullish rally last week. Godzilla is working with the banks so he can now be seen as a market maker.
  • #9,999
  • May 7, 2016 11:05pm May 7, 2016 11:05pm
but i guess it stands to see how much does oil contribute to canada's GDP or economy in totality... which seems to be a rather small %...
  • #10,000
  • May 7, 2016 11:10pm May 7, 2016 11:10pm
Quoting ahmedfouad77
{quote} I think such unique situation may change the strong correlation between the Canadian currency and the oil price in the short/medium term. If this affects the oil production in Canada which has a commodity currency, this will certainly harm the Canadian economy and accordingly currency devaluation. Meanwhile, this wildfire should affect the oil production which accordingly should increase the oil price. Two contradictory effects on the currency. Result will be the NET EFFECT about which factor will be stronger than the other. Days will tell....
EXACTLY this. I think Oil and UC action this past week has already been digesting this. Interesting that there was a decoupling of CAD and Oil - i.e. Oil was up, CAD was down.

However, I don't think it will last for long (maybe a couple of weeks?). It will just take some time for the oil barons to figure out how to do business again. it used to be that if you wanted to work in the oil patch, you flew to Fort Macmurray and then travelled out to the work camps. Now, you might need to drive from Edmonton which 400 kms south. But who knows, the airport in Fort Mac was spared.
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