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USD/CAD

  • #9,921
  • May 6, 2016 2:16am May 6, 2016 2:16am
On GBPCAD, after 1.86620 was hit, price moved back immediately. The reason is that 1.86700 is a very strong resistance level. The signal candle on the M15 chart suggested that the price wanted to test the high of the second arrowed candle on the H1 chart. Therefore the high of the second arrowed candle was my profit target. The high of the first arrowed candle is a hit or miss and therefore should never be the profit target.

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  • #9,922
  • May 6, 2016 2:22am May 6, 2016 2:22am
Quoting brian.jer
1.291130 will be crossed today
I closed this trade. Too much risk since this level is above the H4 high of this week. I recommend avoid touching USDCAD for the rest of the day.

My trading rule is that, if I trade the M15 chart, my targets must be within the H4 pivots. If I trade the H1, the range is between the daily pivots. If I trade H4, the range is between the weekly pivots.
  • #9,923
  • May 6, 2016 2:38am May 6, 2016 2:38am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} So you trimmed the shorts from 51 lots down to 23 lots and deleveraging
Yea. Actually 18 lots. Don't know why it is showing 23 lots. But anyways, I reduced the leverage lock on the account to 15:1 just to be safer. I am still confident we get to 1.20 wuthin about a month and will hold the trade for the that period unless i see another opportunity.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,924
  • May 6, 2016 2:50am May 6, 2016 2:50am
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} Yea. Actually 18 lots. Don't know why it is showing 23 lots. But anyways, I reduced the leverage lock on the account to 15:1 just to be safer. I am still confident we get to 1.20 wuthin about a month and will hold the trade for the that period unless i see another opportunity.
Your current margin level is 103.12%

What is your exit plan if the trades don't go as plan?

If you are waiting to be margined out you will lose $29,777 from your initial investment of $77,777
  • #9,925
  • May 6, 2016 3:18am May 6, 2016 3:18am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Your current margin level is 103.12% What is your exit plan if the trades don't go as plan? If you are waiting to be margined out you will lose $29,777 from your initial investment of $77,777
I'll be studying the sentiments closely. Right now Oanda and FXCM are net long USDCAD. Dukascopy and FXCM are net short oil. So 4 things in my favor. Not to mention everyone advising me that USDCAD is bullish. So 5 things in my favor. I'm pretty comfortable with the trade.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,926
  • May 6, 2016 3:21am May 6, 2016 3:21am
he might have a point though but still omg going short @ 2600 level when UCAD found supp @ psych level @ 2500 just don't make any sense at all.
Loosing like 50% of your accnt balance that's a priceless experience.

Dollar looks like rejection and sup turn res, but his entry was just bollocks.

Rahul you claim you are moved past VSA to something better. Well that's cool, but did you see a volume spike and exhaustion of selling pressure @ 2500???

Surely you can do better than that with a 200K account. Piling in one single trade is insanity imo.
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  • #9,927
  • May 6, 2016 3:22am May 6, 2016 3:22am
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} I'll be studying the sentiments closely. Right now Oanda and FXCM are net long USDCAD. Dukascopy and FXCM are net short oil. So 4 things in my favor. Not to mention everyone advising me that USDCAD is bullish. So 5 things in my favor. I'm pretty comfortable with the trade.
pretty comfortable with 50% losses?
  • #9,928
  • May 6, 2016 3:22am May 6, 2016 3:22am
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} I'll be studying the sentiments closely. Right now Oanda and FXCM are net long USDCAD. Dukascopy and FXCM are net short oil. So 4 things in my favor. Not to mention everyone advising me that USDCAD is bullish. So 5 things in my favor. I'm pretty comfortable with the trade.
Why not wait for a retracement before losing 100k demo or whatever you lost and then going short at a better price, like now, 100k demo cheaper and 300 pips above your initial expensive short
  • #9,929
  • May 6, 2016 3:24am May 6, 2016 3:24am
what Rahul claims on retail sentiment in UCAD is also bollocks. UCAD is fairly balanced according to Oanda positioning report.
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  • #9,930
  • May 6, 2016 3:33am May 6, 2016 3:33am
Quoting asgcorp
what Rahul claims on retail sentiment in UCAD is also bollocks. UCAD is fairly balanced according to Oanda positioning report. {image}


The "Trade against retailers" strategy may have worked on AUSJPY. But probably too hard for anyone to look at more then 2 pairs at once. The brain will just explode! Butt. then it would have and did fail on EURUSD.
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  • #9,931
  • May 6, 2016 4:14am May 6, 2016 4:14am
Shorting this from 1.2841.

Normally I would be careful by entering this position so close to the NFP release. Making amends with smaller position and wider stop-loss. This is just based on mechanical/technical trading, blindly following a system.

The stop is set at 150 pips. Risk exposure is around 1.2 % of the account.

Smart thing to do or not, time will show...
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #9,932
  • May 6, 2016 4:35am May 6, 2016 4:35am
Quoting asgcorp
he might have a point though but still omg going short @ 2600 level when UCAD found supp @ psych level @ 2500 just don't make any sense at all. Loosing like 50% of your accnt balance that's a priceless experience. Dollar looks like rejection and sup turn res, but his entry was just bollocks. Rahul you claim you are moved past VSA to something better. Well that's cool, but did you see a volume spike and exhaustion of selling pressure @ 2500??? Surely you can do better than that with a 200K account. Piling in one single trade is insanity imo. {image}...
There hasn't been a selling climax yet. This is a counter-trend retracement. The trend will resume into new lows.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,933
  • May 6, 2016 5:46am May 6, 2016 5:46am
Honestly. I'm hoping the NFP data is good(above expectations). That should cause some more selling in USDCAD. I'm going to be holding the trade for a month.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,934
  • May 6, 2016 5:50am May 6, 2016 5:50am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} pretty comfortable with 50% losses?
Yes. I entered the trade aiming for 600+ pips. Totally happy with it.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,935
  • May 6, 2016 5:54am May 6, 2016 5:54am
Quoting rahulkghosh
Honestly. I'm hoping the NFP data is good(above expectations). That should cause some more selling in USDCAD. I'm going to be holding the trade for a month.
So if NFP is about expectation the market will sell USD and buy CAD?
  • #9,936
  • May 6, 2016 5:55am May 6, 2016 5:55am
Quoting rahulkghosh
Honestly. I'm hoping the NFP data is good(above expectations). That should cause some more selling in USDCAD. I'm going to be holding the trade for a month.
Bought Ucad, expecting a big spike up, #News, BDW, @Rahul from where you get so much money to lose ? anyway Luck to you.
I just don't post analysis I trade it .
  • #9,937
  • May 6, 2016 6:08am May 6, 2016 6:08am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} So if NFP is about expectation the market will sell USD and buy CAD?
it doesn't go like that. If USDCAD rockets on the news at 1:30 PM GMT. It is actually being sold heavily. This is a counter-trend rally. The higher we go up here, the lower USDCAD will end up in the future....
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #9,938
  • May 6, 2016 6:10am May 6, 2016 6:10am
its a woozy its a waazy its a woooooo....
  • #9,939
  • May 6, 2016 6:17am May 6, 2016 6:17am
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} it doesn't go like that. If USDCAD rockets on the news at 1:30 PM GMT. It is actually being sold heavily. This is a counter-trend rally. The higher we go up here, the lower USDCAD will end up in the future....
Cool

Up is down and down is up
Left is right and right is left
Backward is forward and vice versa
  • #9,940
  • May 6, 2016 6:21am May 6, 2016 6:21am
i think the wildfire in canada is affecting crude oil price which is affecting usdcad as well
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
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