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  • #140,281
  • May 3, 2016 10:17am May 3, 2016 10:17am
Quoting sisse
We are aiming to go back directly to square one for NFP ....
a strong NFP will be a big move on the chess board, sets up the May sell-off as a "fear the June FOMC/Brexit/etc" cloud finally arrives
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,282
  • May 3, 2016 10:58am May 3, 2016 10:58am
Minimum target hit ..... 1.16(check) .... will check for new entries ...
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  • #140,283
  • May 3, 2016 10:59am May 3, 2016 10:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not really short term... We are aiming to go back directly to square one for NFP ....lots of air at these levels, no London, No Tokyo, no China trading air over the holidays ... Everybody back on the table for Friday to start the month.... sisse
You mean going back and sitting @ 1.143x for NFP ?
And then, if NFP allows, farewell rally for EU and equities to the top of the range (1.171x-1.186x) ?
  • #140,284
  • May 3, 2016 11:33am May 3, 2016 11:33am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}a strong NFP will be a big move on the chess board, sets up the May sell-off as a "fear the June FOMC/Brexit/etc" cloud finally arrives
I am so eager for a massive overshoot in NFP...it will be too good and easy to be true ...we'll see for now Dollar found foot after the breach of key lows... we are pretty much back on earth across the board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,285
  • May 3, 2016 2:39pm May 3, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting sisse
I am so eager for a massive overshoot in NFP...it will be too good and easy to be true ...
yes...it will be interesting to see how it pans out. I would guess a strong NFP would be followed by a short risk asset rally and then a persistent sell-off. A flatline or weak NFP will condemn equities to more prolonged chop. Nobody believes the Fed will hike in June on the back of dismal US GDP data and on the eve of the Brexit vote. But I am waiting for the Brexit hype to start its buildup in the media. Maybe that won't happen? Well, we're still 4 fortnights out, I just need to chillax....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,286
  • May 3, 2016 8:58pm May 3, 2016 8:58pm
hey sisse... if you don't mind revisiting this since it is extremely intriguing .... Considering the high TF (daily or weekly) Do you consider a candle break or price break?

Quoting sisse
{quote} ...ok so look what happened .. {image} As you can see you would have never reached your target as you would have been stopped out What is important is looking for a valid/decent retrace [of course] and then look for "Rejection of a low and break of the highs of the rejected candle" ... your 'homework' is to find those in the above chart (there are at least 3 at simple glance) .... there you have the second and final hint of the day ...that will dramatically reduce those stupid/impulsive entries ... GL sisse
  • #140,287
  • May 4, 2016 7:55am May 4, 2016 7:55am
Flop in ADP and soft macro numbers keep coming from the US but clashing with overshoots in all inflation related numbers. We are aligning for a key NFP later this week. Most of Europe going home on Holiday so watch-out NY taking over the board for the rest of the week on the European close ....

Not much to do or see until then ...

Quoting roobii
hey sisse... if you don't mind revisiting this since it is extremely intriguing .... Considering the high TF (daily or weekly) Do you consider a candle break or price break? {quote}
Not sure where are you heading with that question. Price break IS NOT = to a candle break if thats what you meant....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,288
  • May 4, 2016 10:12am May 4, 2016 10:12am
Again a same dull day ....
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  • #140,289
  • May 4, 2016 10:28pm May 4, 2016 10:28pm
​I want to share with you my thoughts on the current market context/movement for your views if you don't mind.
The downtrend of USD seems to me planned and orchestered in order to devaluate the $. All data from major countries converged towards this outcome. And the reversal movement that we have been through since Monday 3rd of May is just to prepare the land for NFP as Sisse mentioned in one of his posts. Even with a worse US data on employment, the $ has continued the uptrend! Also, BOJ unexpectedly didn't add any QEs last week despite the struggling of their economy; EUR too with unchanged plan...Therefore, I think this Friday we will have the worse NFP results.
You might ask why FOMC intentionnelly devaluate their currency, for which purpose? I do not have a clear answer. Definitely, US economy is not in a good shape (i.e., major US companies (Google, Apple...) released bad results) and therefore the world economy is not too. Then to avoid the collapse/crisis, the devaluation of currencies might help or postpone the crisis.
If this scenario finds its validation this Friday, I think we will see a solid uptrend in Gold and a solid downtrend in equities.
Good luck to everyone!
  • #140,290
  • May 5, 2016 5:11am May 5, 2016 5:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not really short term... We are aiming to go back directly to square one for NFP ....lots of air at these levels, no London, No Tokyo, no China trading air over the holidays ... Everybody back on the table for Friday to start the month.... sisse
...and back to square one as widely expected in the Euro. 1.143x with most of continental Europe on Holiday so nothing to see until NY takes over for NFP.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,291
  • May 5, 2016 6:12am May 5, 2016 6:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and back to square one as widely expected in the Euro. 1.143x with most of continental Europe on Holiday so nothing to see until NY takes over for NFP. sisse
confusion : A question to you...

your sentiment in E/u pair.... i am really confused with the last 2 days bar...
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  • #140,292
  • May 5, 2016 8:41am May 5, 2016 8:41am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} confusion : A question to you... your sentiment in E/u pair.... i am really confused with the last 2 days bar...
I guess there's nothing to trade now, meaning don't shoot on everything. What I wonder is, if this NFP good news will be good news...
  • #140,293
  • May 5, 2016 9:23am May 5, 2016 9:23am
What I understood is

NFP clear undershoot => low expectations of a hike in June, bad news good news => EU could visit top of the mt range 1.171x and its extension 1.186x, and farewell rally for equities on dovish CB ??

NFP clear overshoot => hike in June on the table => EU back to the bottom of the st range 1.11xx, aiming 1.097x for June FOMC
  • #140,294
  • Edited 10:36am May 5, 2016 9:56am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} confusion : A question to you... your sentiment in E/u pair.... i am really confused with the last 2 days bar...
--> We went overboard after the break 1.144x. There was just air above and with pretty much 3/4 of the world markets on Holidays in one way or another...back to last Friday was a no brainer this time.

--> Markets quickly rejected the top of the range as it was expected in overshoots on air like this. Sentiment in the Euro hasn't really changed much in the last few weeks (no reason to change it just yet).

--> From a Fundamental point of view any rally above the 1.16xx handle in the current circumstances will have a very hard time to be sustain for long as Euro it is already way too high for the current macro numbers and especially for such aggressive ECB policy environment.

--> On the other side, Dollar is in key long, mid and short term levels and the outcome of these area will set the tone for the rest of the year & prolly a bit beyond (+/- late Q1 2017) and its 100% related to the FED mid term hikes path.

--> Macro numbers in the US has soften in the last couple of months and inflation is starting to tick up consistently (but well under control). A bad NFP will be a good catalyst/benchmark for the spring as it will set the tone for only 2 more hikes this year starting in the summer while an overshoot will leave expectation open for > 2 hikes including one in June.

--> Finally the risk events of the year are around the corner and "sell in may and go away' seems to be too clear to be true. Brexit first with potentially Europe descending into short term uncertainty chaos will leave the majority of real investors and money staying sidelined until is clear (one way or the other). US election is about to clear the primaries and the soft election jitters will start entering in the picture. Trump going third world country populist style in the national campaign might trigger some jitters if he goes over the top in some issues (not expected for now)...

--> Soft risk events will favour the Euro as the carry trade will prime short term, however a full blown risk crisis via Europe/Brexit like usual will trigger a run to the Dollar (and to lesser extend the YEN). This time with China out of play and emergent economies in full collapse ...there is nowhere to go except the US....

Basically thats the general outlook for the Spring as for first week of May ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,295
  • May 5, 2016 10:58am May 5, 2016 10:58am
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> We went overboard after the break 1.144x. There was just air above and with pretty much 3/4 of the world markets on Holidays in one way or another...back to last Friday was a no brainer this time. --> Markets quickly rejected the top of the range as it was expected in overshoots on air like this. Sentiment in the Euro hasn't really changed much in the last few weeks (no reason to change it just yet). --> From a Fundamental point of view any rally above the 1.16xx handle in the current circumstances will have a very hard time to be sustain...
there is no doubt that i was having a minimum target as 1.16 with extension to 1.18 & 1.20 .... so your post is pointing towards a sell off e/u is that what you meant .... (correct me if i am wrong ) so you say that 1.1615x is the Q2 2016 high for e/u .... i have a very strong feeling that Q2 high is still not done .... but if this is the high then i really missed the train ..... with just 1 tick.... anyways coming to brexit scenario do you really think brexit is going to take the decision of leaving euro zone for me its a big NO....and about fed they are having a 2 hike scene still valid in my book....as the ADP numbers were a total flop with todays unemployment also a decent flop.... lets see what numbers are coming tomorrow
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  • #140,296
  • May 5, 2016 11:11am May 5, 2016 11:11am
I believe statistically speaking ADP/NFP correlation is pretty weak as an indicator of NFP results. Not saying it can't work but -- insert 'broken clock' cliche here --
  • #140,297
  • May 5, 2016 11:16am May 5, 2016 11:16am
Quoting goosebone
I believe statistically speaking ADP/NFP correlation is pretty weak as an indicator of NFP results. Not saying it can't work but -- insert 'broken clock' cliche here --
i really appreciate your thinking but right now i am just a little confused to give it a good explanation lets see if sisse has anything to say on this lines...:nerd:
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  • #140,298
  • May 5, 2016 11:42am May 5, 2016 11:42am
Quoting primejarvis
.... there is no doubt that i was having a minimum target as 1.16 with extension to 1.18 & 1.20 so your post is pointing towards a sell off e/u is that what you meant
You are getting it all wrong with that approach...check the last few pages in the thread this year that may trigger a bit of a different way of thinking about trading.

On your specific points:

.... so your post is pointing towards a sell off e/u is that what you meant ....

I am not pointing you at anything because there is nothing new to update. I am just following up on the latest post on the Euro:

  1. Go back to last Friday. Some other fellow traders asked about fading the move. The answer was that is no time to take positions if you are not already IN ...as the move is long gone and 3/4 of the world markets will be closed this week so only 'suckers' will take the opposite train riding air at full pace...
  2. Go back to this Monday/Tuesday. Some other fellow traders asked about missing the train. The answer was 'no not really We are aiming to go back directly to square one for NFP...'
  3. Today I just update the comments to 'CHECK' as price came back to square one as expected and I answered your question saying that " Sentiment in the Euro hasn't really changed much in the last few weeks (no reason to change it just yet)'​ so don't go over board when NOTHING has changed. We are in Neutral as we have been all this Quarter ...

​i really missed the train ..... with just 1 tick...

Well thats exactly my point ....if you think you missed the train by 1 tick ...my words in this thread has been pretty much empty as you are aiming to trade blindly to tick.

Lets assume for a minute that this is the High of the decade in the Euro ...do you really think you missed a potential raw +1800 ticks move (thats the swing in play at these levels) because you missed the initial 100 ticks in the middle of the weekly opening without China, Japan, Australia, London and most of Europe a couple of days later on board and with Euro trading at levels that we haven't spend more than 15 consecutive minutes trading in the last 3 years ???? ....

I hope it helps to put things in perspective...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,299
  • May 5, 2016 12:04pm May 5, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Euro trading at levels that we haven't spend more than 15 consecutive minutes trading in the last 3 years ???? .... I hope it helps to put things in perspective... sisse
yes concept of air is very clear. I see it as a gap. I notice market cover these air areas with proper trading. and when price move in these areas with out proper trading way. than there is indication that we have vacume over there no on willing to buy/sell at these areas or as you says don't want to park the money, often above and bellow these areas show the direction of trend. proper trading way will discus later on.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #140,300
  • May 5, 2016 12:30pm May 5, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are getting it all wrong with that approach...check the last few pages in the thread this year that may trigger a bit of a different way of thinking about trading. On your specific points: .... so your post is pointing towards a sell off e/u is that what you meant .... I am not pointing you at anything because there is nothing new to update. I am just following up on the latest post on the Euro: Go back to last Friday. Some other fellow traders asked about fading the move. The answer was that is no time to take positions if you are not...
Thankx a lot sisse .... Will chat later as I am on mobile ... Cannot type fast ...
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