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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,261
  • May 2, 2016 7:45am May 2, 2016 7:45am
The reason I chose these 3 was merely based on the fact the candle reversing the direction engulfed the one beside it. But this kind of trade example is what gets me into trouble all the time. It goes my direction and then it doesn't. It reverses back to my stop and then goes in the right direction. As much as I know TA wise, I feel as if I am very weak in understanding waves and how the market works in waves.

This also looked like that zig-zag example you gave us at one time.

Your exercise have been good as they have helped me to see over trading and a trade may take 5 days to develop even if you have the direction right.

Thanks for teaching sisse. I love to learn!
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  • #140,262
  • May 2, 2016 8:25am May 2, 2016 8:25am
Quoting IMARICH1
The reason I chose these 3 was merely based on the fact the candle reversing the direction engulfed the one beside it. {image}
Here you are again mistaken any trend reversal signal given by candle stick should be analyzed thoroughly ...

Example : Bearish Engulfing pattern will only be valid if it is forming at a new high not in the middle of the trend .... put your logic into it and you will understand
Re-Incarnated
  • #140,263
  • May 2, 2016 9:23am May 2, 2016 9:23am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} might be there, trying some EU-shorts @ 1.1480 USDOLLAR D1: {image}
stopped @ 114.95 another try @ 115.129 risking 20
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #140,264
  • May 2, 2016 9:54am May 2, 2016 9:54am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} stopped @ 114.95 another try @ 115.129 risking 20
Pray for an lower High then. Better to go long USDCAD. Oil dropping correlation additional.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #140,265
  • May 2, 2016 10:46am May 2, 2016 10:46am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Pray for an lower High then. Better to go long USDCAD. Oil dropping correlation additional.
I never pray in forex, but yes that might be a good one
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #140,266
  • May 2, 2016 11:02am May 2, 2016 11:02am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} I never pray in forex, but yes that might be a good one
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #140,267
  • Edited 12:59pm May 2, 2016 12:30pm | Edited 12:59pm
Just glancing at markets here. Euro bulls in full control and we finally test the 1.15xx handle. Putting Euro back in workspace from tomorrow. Well done to all bulls from 1.12xx fantastic and easy ride ....

Quoting IMARICH1
The reason I chose these 3 was merely based on the fact the candle reversing the direction engulfed the one beside it. But this kind of trade example is what gets me into trouble all the time. It goes my direction and then it doesn't. It reverses back to my stop and then goes in the right direction. As much as I know TA wise, I feel as if I am very weak in understanding waves and how the market works in waves. This also looked like that zig-zag example you gave us at one time. Your exercise have been good as they have helped me to see over trading...
I wasn't trying to show you a trade but some basic price TA. We went candle by candle. I showed you a break up...point was to show you that instead of focusing in trading with the direction you ended up trading the retraces!!!!.... In any case, only the second circle is 'valid' ...FYI that trigger even if it failed to take the highs was +300_ticks swing with a dozen ticks drawdown.....Your getting in trouble with a trigger like that is 'cause you are trading the trigger and not a trigger on the direction...

sisse

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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,268
  • May 2, 2016 1:25pm May 2, 2016 1:25pm
Thanks for the TIPS sisse!

As you can see, this is why I lack confidence. I can get in the the Big Pool with the Big kids; but, embarrassingly I need to stay in the shallow end. Trying to figure this stuff out. Will take all the examples you are willing to offer and wine you have to uncork to bare my ignorance.

FA I can't wrap my brain around how EU and GBP can still be this much overvalued over the Dollar. The DOLLAR raised its rates and EU and GU can't. DOLLAR comes from a stronger economy and EU and GU do not. Yet, it is kicked around like a used can while the EU and GU set nicely on the shelf. I thought GU was going to be a nice currency to trade for the Yr? It has definitely caught me off guard as well.
  • #140,269
  • Edited 2:34pm May 2, 2016 1:53pm | Edited 2:34pm
Sisse if i can jump in Trading Oil today
i took the trigger to the down side on the Daily chart posted a pic

My market awareness
1. /Cl uptrend bull in control
2.Previous Day bar doji what i call price triger the low of this bar it confirm to me that bull are taking profit.
3. Bull will play ball again if price drop back down to 44.02 where bull engulf bear.
thanks in advance .
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  • #140,270
  • May 3, 2016 3:19am May 3, 2016 3:19am
A sense of deja vu from last summer in the Euro ...strong sessions with the pair trading pure air on the the break 1.143x. If you blinked you missed... move is long gone and there is not much to do if you are not already in.

Dollar is extreme key levels so tracking like a hawk the FX board with lots of opportunities in almost every single pair in the upcoming sessions. Also Gold completing the FED move with a test 1300.xx and entering in major decision levels for the rest of the year.

Quoting sisse
--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from Sell to Soft buy to complete the ext to 1300.xx [check] before the summer.
Here getting in synch with the board with plenty of options to trade on the table ... GL all this month ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,271
  • May 3, 2016 4:40am May 3, 2016 4:40am
Quoting sisse
A sense of deja vu from last summer in the Euro ...strong sessions with the pair trading pure air on the the break 1.143x. If you blinked you missed... move is long gone and there is not much to do if you are not already in. Dollar is extreme key levels so tracking like a hawk the FX board with lots of opportunities in almost every single pair in the upcoming sessions. Also Gold completing the FED move with a test 1300.xx and entering in major decision levels for the rest of the year. {quote} Here getting in synch with the board with plenty of options...
What's the meaning for you about trading air area? I understand that the price is in one area that hasn't been touched since a lot of time ago. Something else?
  • #140,272
  • Edited 5:18am May 3, 2016 4:49am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting sisse
A sense of deja vu from last summer in the Euro ...strong sessions with the pair trading pure air on the the break 1.143x. If you blinked you missed... move is long gone and there is not much to do if you are not already in. Dollar is extreme key levels so tracking like a hawk the FX board with lots of opportunities in almost every single pair in the upcoming sessions. Also Gold completing the FED move with a test 1300.xx and entering in major decision levels for the rest of the year. {quote} Here getting in synch with the board with plenty...
Sisse, what are ur downside lvls on DXY for this short term extension? 94 is gone short term and Im even getting 92,1 (price now) - 90,7 and 89,5 for violent quick in and out as max. lvl of the extension. I guess 1,18 handle as absolute max.

Im interested in the lvl to have some guide in these extreme conditions because Im definitely planning to play it because....

I expect the dollar to set the low of month (and year) quickly and violently in coming sessions - rather early (def. 1st/2 of may) . Thus marking the end of early spring trading before we enter into "late spring trading mode via risk-off" with equities, GBP, commodity currencies declining and USD up. No matter what is the outcome of referendum USD is gonna shine coming to summer and beyond = either through risk-off (brexit) or due to rates mode trading (no brexit) - so this extension down on DXY is gonna be just a hammer on M/Q lvls, i.e. on mid/long term.

Would you agree generally?

Thank you
  • #140,273
  • May 3, 2016 5:34am May 3, 2016 5:34am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} What's the meaning for you about trading air area? I understand that the price is in one area that hasn't been touched since a lot of time ago. Something else?
Nobody was trading or holding at these levels....there is no real [any] money parked there....

Quoting chester123
{q.... . Thus marking the end of early spring trading before we enter into "late spring trading mode via risk-off" with equities, GBP, commodity currencies declining and USD up. No matter what is the outcome of referendum USD is gonna shine coming to summer and beyond = either through risk-off (brexit) or due to rates mode trading (no brexit) - so this extension down on DXY is gonna be just a hammer on M/Q lvls, i.e. on mid/long term. Would you agree generally? Thank you
Absolutely !!!.

We have setting the low of this year in play in DOLLAR. Not interested AT ALL to trade a break down. Exhaustion leg and major relocation of portfolios in their way. 92.xx seem a decent area for the overshoot but the money maker for the mid and long term come from 94.4x on the way back ....

Equities will hold in chop for a bit longer this month or at least until we have a flop in macro numbers/inflation (no point on raising the offers before). Also track the Yen starting to get bid in the upcoming weeks (watch-out a rejection of the 106.xx handle) for a soft risk rally in UJ (retrace on the mid and short term leg).

We are in the middle of swapping the board right now. Currencies (dollar) will take the driver seat as most other assets classes will enter in standby mode....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,274
  • May 3, 2016 6:24am May 3, 2016 6:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nobody was trading or holding at these levels....there is no real [any] money parked there.... {quote} Absolutely !!!. We have setting the low of this year in play in DOLLAR. Not interested AT ALL to trade a break down. Exhaustion leg and major relocation of portfolios in their way. 92.xx seem a decent area for the overshoot but the money maker for the mid and long term come from 94.4x on the way back .... Equities will hold in chop for a bit longer this month or at least until we have a flop in macro numbers/inflation (no point on raising...
All right, we on the same page generally and fundamentally!!

No point in stepping into the force of dollar extension tsunami right now. It needs more space and a few more sessions to finish and build base.

In any case. while E/U can fly on air for now ---- Before turning to equities/commodity cur. and E/U during coming 2 weeks the first instrument Im keen looking for positions for the "late spring risk-off trading mode" is G/U. As its gonna be on fire I expect the pair to show first signs of the mode - and my technical eye (lol, basically blind ) says the upside is finished. In chart: if we get D1 closes bellow the yellow rectangle Im gonna be fading the yellow rectangle.

Any comments welcomed.
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  • #140,275
  • May 3, 2016 7:01am May 3, 2016 7:01am
Quoting chester123
{quote} All right, we on the same page generally and fundamentally!! No point in stepping into the force of dollar extension tsunami right now. It needs more space and a few more sessions to finish and build base. In any case. while E/U can fly on air for now ---- Before turning to equities/commodity cur. and E/U during coming 2 weeks the first instrument Im keen looking for positions for the "late spring risk-off trading mode" is G/U. As its gonna be on fire I expect the pair to show first signs of the mode - and my technical eye (lol, basically...
Eur/usd looks better after a dollar trigger as Euro wont hold fundamentally for long above the 1.17xx handle while Sterling has the dark clouds of RISK on top and it will be 'supported' to avoid collapse with fast 'spasm' and sudden short lived moves in GU until Brexit is decided (both sides are tradable for the summer ...the flop [no brexit] will be even faster as expectation are on the risk side for now..).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,276
  • May 3, 2016 7:24am May 3, 2016 7:24am
Market might think commodity currencies are going to cut rates CAD is starting to sell off and AUD already sold off after they cut rates. There has been a lot of volatility in FX markets because they are so forward thinking with the slow down in China, pending rate hikes, surprising rate cuts, brexit, etc.
TE started 6/4/19
  • #140,277
  • May 3, 2016 7:24am May 3, 2016 7:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Eur/usd looks better after a dollar trigger as Euro wont hold fundamentally for long above the 1.17xx handle while Sterling has the dark clouds of RISK on top and it will be 'supported' to avoid collapse with fast 'spasm' and sudden short lived moves in GU until Brexit is decided (both sides are tradable for the summer ...the flop [no brexit] will be even faster as expectation are on the risk side for now..). sisse
Hmmm, Its true youve mentioned many times that the price never moves out of fundamental zones just based on risk-off - it needs a change in the fundamental facts. So I guess you right - until the outcome of referendum is clear - G/U is not gonna change the fundamental zone lower. Hmm, so maybe to sell these days can be just prepositioning on the top of the fundamental range for Brexit even though the change its gonna survive the volatility may be slim. Definitely agree on the quick reverso plan if they stay!

On E/U I guess I agree too. Im just frustrated with the pair. I was so obsessed with the strong sell on mid term I failed to see/ignored the short term swings up so I had to pay the price of not diferentiating TFs, having wrong timing, and ignoring fundies, which were not in my mid term direction.

  • #140,278
  • May 3, 2016 7:40am May 3, 2016 7:40am
Quoting chester123
... I was so obsessed with the strong sell on mid term I failed to see/ignored the short term swings up so I had to pay the price of not differentiating TFs, having wrong timing, and ignoring fundies, which were not in my mid term direction.
I am afraid you overlooked that Euro changed mid term outlook to neutral back in Q1 unlocking the 1.172x handle for the spring (top of the mid term range) with max ext 1.18xx...

Quoting sisse
and finally and very importantly
--> Changing mid term outlook in Euro from August 2015 from Strong sell to Neutral
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,279
  • Edited 8:05am May 3, 2016 7:51am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am afraid you overlooked that Euro changed mid term outlook to neutral back in Q1 unlocking the 1.172x handle for the spring (top of the mid term range) with max ext 1.18xx... {quote} sisse
Im afraid I was not doing my homework those days!! gotta go through that section - its pretty hard to have the discipline to stay updated and in sync with the market to be ready when the time comes now its too late to jump into recent legs/extension anyways. in any case: getting in sync now so Im ready when the next ones come
  • #140,280
  • May 3, 2016 9:16am May 3, 2016 9:16am
Quoting chester123
.. now its too late to jump into recent legs/extension anyways. in any case: getting in sync now so Im ready when the next ones come
Not really short term... We are aiming to go back directly to square one for NFP ....lots of air at these levels, no London, No Tokyo, no China trading air over the holidays ... Everybody back on the table for Friday to start the month....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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