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EURUSD

  • #1,066,141
  • May 5, 2016 3:41am May 5, 2016 3:41am
Quoting Don96
{image}
Good
Attached Image
  • #1,066,142
  • May 5, 2016 3:43am May 5, 2016 3:43am
Wow. EURUSD is being bought up heavily today. Looks like it wants to go to 1.18+.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,066,143
  • May 5, 2016 3:43am May 5, 2016 3:43am
Quoting Raa
{quote} btw, I am holding short atm. {image}

Good job Raa keep doing what you do
  • #1,066,144
  • Edited 3:54am May 5, 2016 3:43am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} I am (almost) sure that EURUSD will drop bellow 1.14 tomorrow if US nonfarm payrolls will be around 200K.
Exactly. NFP is expected to strengthens the US dollar ....maybe too much, so it could be priced in
Quoting Anubisval
{quote} Avir is doing a tremendous job... Avir thank you and Happy trade to you my friend
Of course he does!
Member
  • #1,066,145
  • May 5, 2016 3:44am May 5, 2016 3:44am
Quoting Raa
{quote} Good {image}
1.14384/1.14149 and 1.1390 all on my watch atm
  • #1,066,146
  • May 5, 2016 3:48am May 5, 2016 3:48am
Quoting Don96
{quote} 201k? if so that's worse than expected which usually means up right? ... also don't forget unemployment and average earnings are tomorrow, unless they all come out in one colour, it'll probably whip around before any sort of direction
Fed will be satisfied with everything over 150K. When US economy is creating new jobs, there can be hardly expected an increase of unemployment rate. But the low unemployment rate will be limiting for creation of new jobs because it is hard to create new jobs where is a lack of available workforce, as I wrote here yesterday.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,147
  • May 5, 2016 3:48am May 5, 2016 3:48am
Here is my analysis. I pressume the crucial day will be tommorow when NFP is released. I'm weighing more to the buying sentiment - simply because more signals point to EUR gains and USD losses. It is as well my intuition watching this pair for a long time.

Let the market decide nevertheless!

ValentinoFx
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  • #1,066,148
  • May 5, 2016 3:52am May 5, 2016 3:52am
Quoting ValentinoFx.
Here is my analysis. I pressume the crucial day will be tommorow when NFP is released. I'm weighing more to the buying sentiment - simply because more signals point to EUR gains and USD losses. It is as well my intuition watching this pair for a long time. Let the market decide nevertheless! ValentinoFx {image} {image}
Good analysis, good conclusion: let the market decide. Did you learn anything last week for better trading today? Share it at a lesson learnt.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,066,149
  • May 5, 2016 3:56am May 5, 2016 3:56am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Fed will be satisfied with everything over 150K. When US economy is creating new jobs, there can be hardly expected an increase of unemployment rate. But the low unemployment rate will be limiting for creation of new jobs because it is hard to create new jobs where is a lack of available workforce, as I wrote here yesterday.
oh yeah I'm not saying your wrong... but check the last time we had nfp, wages and unemployment it whipsawed... wages and NFP were good while unemployment was bad, should the same happen tomorrow yeah overall it'll probably/should continue down, and if not then the opposite, but like you said, low unemployment already means eventually the cycle will kick in, it will have to go up to go down again, likewise with NFP and wages... so we will have to see, all green and we will see 100+ drop easy, but same is said for the other way...
  • #1,066,150
  • May 5, 2016 3:59am May 5, 2016 3:59am
Quoting ValentinoFx.
Here is my analysis. I pressume the crucial day will be tommorow when NFP is released. I'm weighing more to the buying sentiment - simply because more signals point to EUR gains and USD losses. It is as well my intuition watching this pair for a long time. Let the market decide nevertheless! ValentinoFx {image} {image}
that weekly candle is saying the opposite of gains... to me anyway, don't know how anyone else takes it. obvs tomorrow can change everything
  • #1,066,151
  • May 5, 2016 4:00am May 5, 2016 4:00am
Quoting Don96
{quote} 1.14384/1.14149 and 1.1390 all on my watch atm
nice, I don't follow levels much

Green pips to you
  • #1,066,152
  • May 5, 2016 4:05am May 5, 2016 4:05am
Quoting Don96
{quote} that weekly candle is saying the opposite of gains... to me anyway, don't know how anyone else takes it. obvs tomorrow can change everything
It's not closed yet. And tommorow is a big announcement.
  • #1,066,153
  • May 5, 2016 4:05am May 5, 2016 4:05am
My trading video

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Trend is your the best friend. Ever
  • #1,066,154
  • May 5, 2016 4:07am May 5, 2016 4:07am
Quoting ValentinoFx.
{quote} It's not closed yet. And tommorow is a big announcement.
oh yeah I know, but the way it stands that weekly candle is not bullish in any way... as long as NFP and Wages are good, I suppose itll stay that way aswell, ill be running a free trade by then so wont really bother me, I try stay away from new trades before news. but good luck to you anyway, whatever your decision
  • #1,066,155
  • May 5, 2016 4:13am May 5, 2016 4:13am
Quoting Don96
{quote} oh yeah I'm not saying your wrong... but check the last time we had nfp, wages and unemployment it whipsawed... wages and NFP were good while unemployment was bad, should the same happen tomorrow yeah overall it'll probably/should continue down, and if not then the opposite, but like you said, low unemployment already means eventually the cycle will kick in, it will have to go up to go down again, likewise with NFP and wages... so we will have to see, all green and we will see 100+ drop easy, but same is said for the other way...
When market was expecting another rate hike, any worse than excellent data caused panic. The situation is different now. Market is sceptical to another rate hike so there is more space for change of its mood to more optimistic mode. It is my guess based on my intuition only so do not take it too seriously. :-)
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,156
  • May 5, 2016 4:24am May 5, 2016 4:24am
Quoting ValentinoFx.
Here is my analysis. I pressume the crucial day will be tommorow when NFP is released. I'm weighing more to the buying sentiment - simply because more signals point to EUR gains and USD losses. It is as well my intuition watching this pair for a long time. Let the market decide nevertheless! ValentinoFx {image} {image}
usd index is forming bullish reversal in daily and from significant area . but this is nfp week, so plz take care of ur account this week
  • #1,066,157
  • May 5, 2016 4:24am May 5, 2016 4:24am
Quoting Don96
{quote} 1.14384/1.14149 and 1.1390 all on my watch atm
I'am with you.

I see stronger dollar for long term.

Watching job data tomorrow.
  • #1,066,158
  • May 5, 2016 4:28am May 5, 2016 4:28am
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} When market was expecting another rate hike, any worse than excellent data caused panic. The situation is different now. Market is sceptical to another rate hike so there is more space for change of its mood to more optimistic mode. It is my guess based on my intuition only so do not take it too seriously. :-)
How are you seeing this?

Here are five things that are making dollar bears nervous.
1) Many bears in the woods
2) The Fed could surprise us
3) The ICE Dollar Index bounced off a crucial support level
4) May has been good to the dollar
5) China
(the wall street journal)
Member
  • #1,066,159
  • Edited 5:26am May 5, 2016 5:01am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} How are you seeing this? Here are five things that are making dollar bears nervous. 1) Many bears in the woods 2) The Fed could surprise us 3) The ICE Dollar Index bounced off a crucial support level 4) May has been good to the dollar 5) China (the wall street journal)
1) EUR bears are hungry after the period of USD bears domination. That is why EUR bears shoud beat USD bears now.
2) Yes, positively for USD. I think Fed will be more hawkish because of good latest data.
3) If fundamental reasons for strenghtening of USD will be supported with such factors and other indicators of technical analysis, it should be a bloodbath for EUR bulls (USD bears).
4) Do you mean May 2015? Maybe "sell in May and go away" influences USD positively because of bigger demand for cash(?).
5) I think PBOC is becoming more and more desperate. If USD will strengten, PBOC's monetary intervention policy of shorting USD will burst into its face. (Does central bank have any face?) Big earthquake in Chinese economy can couse troubles to US economy. We could see a boomerang effect then.

It is hard to say which factors will prevail but I think there is no fundamental reason for weaker USD in short term.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,160
  • May 5, 2016 5:15am May 5, 2016 5:15am
Quoting micho
{quote} tp 1.1655, same sl
boom stopped out a while ago
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
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