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  • #1,066,081
  • May 4, 2016 2:55pm May 4, 2016 2:55pm
You can explain by fundamentals (like the ones you mentioned as examples), by technicals (e.g. PA, candlestick patterns, S/R zones etc) or both.

Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} I would like to know the actual reason to sell USD and buy EUR. No financial astrology, a fundamental one. E.g. US economy is collapsing, ECB's printing machine has just been broken, PBOC has just decided to take one trillion of bucks from its reserves and to change it for EUR...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,066,082
  • May 4, 2016 3:19pm May 4, 2016 3:19pm
Quoting KeenPips
You can explain by fundamentals (like the ones you mentioned as examples), by technicals (e.g. PA, candlestick patterns, S/R zones etc) or both. {quote}
Technical analysis is something like a thermometer that tells you that the pacient has a fever (or in some cases it can possibly help you to detect signs that the pacient will have a fever soon) but it does not tell you why. Technical analysis is (almost) useless if you do not know the actual reasons and/or the motivations of the big players. If you do not know signs of what you would have to look for. Without this knowledge, it is only something like astrology.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,083
  • May 4, 2016 3:24pm May 4, 2016 3:24pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Technical analysis is something like a thermometer that tells you that the pacient has a fever (or in some cases it can possibly help you to detect signs that the pacient will have a fever soon) but it does not tell you why. Technical analysis is (almost) useless if you do not know the actual reasons and/or the motivations of the big players. If you do not know signs of what you would have to look for. Without this knowledge, it is only something like astrology.
Charts pointed at 106 for yen, and negative interest rates, one would think, would weaken the currency? but yet it got 1500 pips stronger?
  • #1,066,084
  • May 4, 2016 3:34pm May 4, 2016 3:34pm
​in fact, everything that central banks have done to weaken their currency last couple of months has done exactly the opposite
  • #1,066,085
  • Edited 3:55pm May 4, 2016 3:37pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} Charts pointed at 106 for yen, and negative interest rates, one would think, would weaken the currency? but yet it got 1500 pips stronger?
Why are the big players motivated to change USD for JPY, how many and which of them, how strong is their motivation, what can cause they will lose the motivation and when...? The more answers you know, the better technical analysis can help you to predict market behaviour or to notice changes in it.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,086
  • May 4, 2016 3:46pm May 4, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting Don96
​in fact, everything that central banks have done to weaken their currency last couple of months has done exactly the opposite
Central banking is evil. It is a kind of central planning. I lived more than 18 years in centrally planned economy so I know well that it does not work. But there is always a market reaction to every central bank action. The reaction depends also on many other factors (on the whole market environment), not only on the action alone.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,087
  • May 4, 2016 3:55pm May 4, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Technical analysis is something like a thermometer that tells you that the pacient has a fever (or in some cases it can possibly help you to detect signs that the pacient will have a fever soon) but it does not tell you why. Technical analysis is (almost) useless if you do not know the actual reasons and/or the motivations of the big players. If you do not know signs of what you would have to look for. Without this knowledge, it is only something like astrology.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,066,088
  • May 4, 2016 4:05pm May 4, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Technical analysis is something like a thermometer that tells you that the pacient has a fever (or in some cases it can possibly help you to detect signs that the pacient will have a fever soon) but it does not tell you why. Technical analysis is (almost) useless if you do not know the actual reasons and/or the motivations of the big players. If you do not know signs of what you would have to look for. Without this knowledge, it is only something like astrology.
i totally disagree with you.....
There is only one way to learn. It’s through action.
  • #1,066,089
  • May 4, 2016 4:10pm May 4, 2016 4:10pm
Daily candle on EU is a bearish candle... i think we are going further down.
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #1,066,090
  • May 4, 2016 4:19pm May 4, 2016 4:19pm
Quoting mahfoozah
{quote} i totally disagree with you.....
I fully respect your right to disagree. :-) I guess the big players do not decide to invest billions of bucks because, e.g., the value of RSI is x. I worked in forex department of a big bank many years ago but I suppose that the decision-making processes of such big players have not changed a lot since then.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,091
  • May 4, 2016 4:33pm May 4, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} I fully respect your right to disagree. :-) I guess the big players do not decide to invest billions of bucks because, e.g., the value of RSI is x. I worked in forex department of a big bank many years ago but I suppose that the decision-making processes of such big players have not changed a lot since then.
So the best way to trade is price action is that what you're trying to say?
  • #1,066,092
  • May 4, 2016 4:44pm May 4, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} So the best way to trade is price action is that what you're trying to say?
It is also a supportive tool like technical analysis.

This is a list of factors that are crucial for foreign exchange rates:
1. Politics.
2. Politics.
3. Politics.
4. Politics.
5. Politics.
.
.
.
150. Small residuum of free market.

Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,093
  • May 4, 2016 4:53pm May 4, 2016 4:53pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} It is also a supportive tool like technical analysis. This is a list of factors that are crucial for foreign exchange rates: 1. Politics. 2. Politics. 3. Politics. 4. Politics. 5. Politics. . . . 150. Small residuum of free market.
True, but for retail traders like us I think the best way to go is price action it's self. You can't really find any other tool to trade with. From my experience I found that the price action is the best way to go. It brings me a lot of profit a month and very few losses. I do not trade the news.
  • #1,066,094
  • May 4, 2016 4:56pm May 4, 2016 4:56pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} Why are the big players motivated to change USD for JPY, how many and which of them, how strong is their motivation, what can cause they will lose the motivation and when...? The more answers you know, the better technical analysis can help you to predict market behaviour or to notice changes in it.
Hi, just wanned to say that I'm pleased to watch your reasonable common sense both tehnical and fundamental comments. I take note of them, they help. Thnx
Member
  • #1,066,095
  • May 4, 2016 5:01pm May 4, 2016 5:01pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} True, but for retail traders like us I think the best way to go is price action it's self. You can't really find any other tool to trade with. From my experience I found that the price action is the best way to go. It brings me a lot of profit a month and very few losses. I do not trade the news.
I agree that price action works well but it works the better the more complete knowledge of market environment you have.
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,096
  • May 4, 2016 5:06pm May 4, 2016 5:06pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hi, just wanned to say that I'm pleased to watch your reasonable common sense both tehnical and fundamental comments. I take note of them, they help. Thnx
Thank you. :-)
Patience is a key to joy.
  • #1,066,097
  • May 4, 2016 6:04pm May 4, 2016 6:04pm
Quoting micho
{quote} set my tp now after keeping it floating: 1.1690 trailing sl 1.1461 last one remaining out of 5 positions, entry 1.1385 1.152x acting as support again, a weak support/resistance wanna be both
tp 1.1655, same sl
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #1,066,098
  • May 4, 2016 6:16pm May 4, 2016 6:16pm
Quoting TeddyBearish
{quote} I agree that price action works well but it works the better the more complete knowledge of market environment you have.
Unfortunately, retail traders will never have complete knowledge of market. You can learn price action all the way, the sentiment even the news but you will never know completely what is going on.
  • #1,066,099
  • May 4, 2016 6:42pm May 4, 2016 6:42pm
Quoting micho
{quote} tp 1.1655, same sl
TQ Appreciate your open-ness on your trade calls, hardly seen nowadays especially in this thread.
  • #1,066,100
  • May 4, 2016 7:26pm May 4, 2016 7:26pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Unfortunately, retail traders will never have complete knowledge of market. You can learn price action all the way, the sentiment even the news but you will never know completely what is going on.
I agree. I also agree that it doesn't hurt to at least have a general understanding of what is going on in different parts of the world and the geo-political events affecting financial markets. But you can be an expert in every facet of every component involved in what causes differing values between currencies and still not understand that beast we call The Market. Good news for a base currency..... and the value goes......down. Why? It won't matter why after-the-fact because next time the reaction will be different. We are speculators. Our job is to use the tools at our disposal in the finite time allotted to us to come to an educated decision as to what might possibly happen based on what we know and act or not act. I have never thought knowledge of fundamentals or technical knowledge in interpreting price-action on charts was more important than the other.
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