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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #59,981
  • May 1, 2016 10:12pm May 1, 2016 10:12pm
What ever direction you decide to trade, please remember Nikkei and Japan open only for today and on holidays again, so expect larger move than you would normally anticipate due to lower volume and market manipulation. 105 area was my down side target 3 weeks ago, only question is will we see a kiss goodbye of old lows 107.70's before 105 is touched.. Trade smaller positions than you normally would for now...
  • #59,982
  • May 1, 2016 10:14pm May 1, 2016 10:14pm
Quoting balotelli
Get ready to move quite quickly below 106! Be careful at 105....USD said to gain this week
Where did you read the news my friend? Do not judge subjectively.
  • #59,983
  • May 1, 2016 10:22pm May 1, 2016 10:22pm
is holding on the support created on Oct & Nov last year. but it seem to reach lower.
  • #59,984
  • May 1, 2016 10:50pm May 1, 2016 10:50pm
Quoting balotelli
What ever direction you decide to trade, please remember Nikkei and Japan open only for today and on holidays again, so expect larger move than you would normally anticipate due to lower volume and market manipulation. 105 area was my down side target 3 weeks ago, only question is will we see a kiss goodbye of old lows 107.70's before 105 is touched.. Trade smaller positions than you normally would for now...
i see consolidation . not looking at what you just said .... 15/30 pips is all my target on daily basis.
There is only one way to learn. It’s through action.
  • #59,985
  • May 2, 2016 5:22am May 2, 2016 5:22am
Quoting procrude
{quote} Because i forgot
That is not the reason for your loss.You are lying to yourself.You are just placing order and begging for them to come in profit,when they go in loss you always Hold them hoping for a come back.You are a good man ,I felt I give you some good advice.I have been watching your TE for 2 weeks now.Story is the same you hold on to loss hoping for a comeback always.You don't define the risk before entering the trade.Look at EU trade your take profit is so small compared to loss you are willing to take.On average you rake no more then 10 pips each trade but you give back 30 40 even 100.Your account is bleeding.Next time you get a winning streak it will drop back into loosing zone with just 1 or 2 trades.Start from scratch close all trades and next time set a predefined loss before entering trade.In the long run taking small predefined loss would make your account grow.Every trade can't be a winning trade.Lose no more then you earn each day.Profit and loss should have same ratio not a skewed ratio.Hope you learn something of value from my post.God bless you.;-)
  • #59,986
  • May 2, 2016 7:13am May 2, 2016 7:13am
why jpy moved hundred of pips today at 7:00 gmt?
  • #59,987
  • May 2, 2016 8:41am May 2, 2016 8:41am
Quoting 666Doom
{quote} That is not the reason for your loss.You are lying to yourself.You are just placing order and begging for them to come in profit,when they go in loss you always Hold them hoping for a come back.You are a good man ,I felt I give you some good advice.I have been watching your TE for 2 weeks now.Story is the same you hold on to loss hoping for a comeback always.You don't define the risk before entering the trade.Look at EU trade your take profit is so small compared to loss you are willing to take.On average you rake no more then 10 pips each...
Thanks for the information. Yes you are correct and I will definately take your advice and also many others who sent me messages.... I wont give up.... i will take my money back from the market .... if i lose my account i will fund it again....no worries
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #59,988
  • May 2, 2016 9:49pm May 2, 2016 9:49pm
Japan public holiday makes Abe trip invisible on all the Japan government websites today.
  • #59,989
  • May 3, 2016 12:26am May 3, 2016 12:26am
Not sure why the YEN is so strong these days. It is. It like their economy is booming and can afford to have a strong YEN
  • #59,990
  • May 3, 2016 12:35am May 3, 2016 12:35am
Abe abroad this week..
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ja...-idUSKCN0XU06M
  • #59,991
  • May 3, 2016 12:43am May 3, 2016 12:43am
USDJPY has been sell for me since 108.368. Who knows how much longer it's going to continue to drop. It's still dropping...

If you're thinking of entering sell, I wouldn't do it now since you'd just be chasing it.
  • #59,992
  • Edited 11:33am May 3, 2016 2:14am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting stylinex
Not sure why the YEN is so strong these days. It is. It like their economy is booming and can afford to have a strong YEN
My current thoughts.....

October 2012 Abenomics was born, and the massive stimulus program made quite a few people a lot of money. Including me .. well maybe not a lot..

Since then there has been talk of increasing direct sales taxes after the hike a year ago. So apart from VAT (insert other description as required) what is different from September 2012?
- is the stimulus level greater than it was then?
- is Japanese industry increasing its output?

After a temporary switch away from nuclear power the Japanese have restarted their reactors ... so their oil consumption will reduce.
The Japanese are pushing Hydrogen and Battery technology for cars, so their oil consumption will reduce.
Hikes in VAT have had the effect of reducing sales volumes, it would seem, so the only beneficiary of another hike would be the Nippon Govt.
All of which leads me to conclude that the saviour of the Japanese economy will be the death of a large number of older people .. 20 years?
Meantime Japan seems to be returning to its previous state of running a trade surplus.

All of which leads me to conclude: I need to get numbers for the level of stimulus earlier in 2012. Anybody have those handy?
Unless something kills the Japanese industrial engine ( N.Korea ? ) I see UJ returning to 75 .. with a few bumps now and then.

edit: From September 2012 "The central bank increased its asset-purchase fund to 55 trillion yen ($697 billion) from 45 trillion yen and its lending facility was kept at 25 trillion yen" ...which seems like a lot less than today.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #59,993
  • May 3, 2016 4:45pm May 3, 2016 4:45pm
What caused this spike? Saw no news on the calendar...
  • #59,994
  • May 3, 2016 4:47pm May 3, 2016 4:47pm
Quoting geektrader
What caused this spike? Saw no news on the calendar...
geektrader, take a look at the GBPJPY thread. The understanding over there is that JPY crosses can move like that because of technical reasons (corrections, etc.) rather than news related reasons. I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing because personally, I try to avoid news like the plague so I'd like to know in advance if a pair is going to move like that because of upcoming news events.
  • #59,995
  • May 3, 2016 5:10pm May 3, 2016 5:10pm
Nope, this was surely some unexcepted news. I am trading 8 years full time, an increased spread like this + a spike like this is not a normal movement during the asian session.
  • #59,996
  • May 3, 2016 5:13pm May 3, 2016 5:13pm
Quoting geektrader
Nope, this was surely some unexcepted news. I am trading 8 years full time, an increased spread like this + a spike like this is not a normal movement during the asian session.
Exactly, i have seen 40pip moves on 120ADR pairs before. Most of the times this was blamed on algo's... Havent seen a move this big yet around this time of the day, within sec's, no news.
  • #59,997
  • May 3, 2016 5:15pm May 3, 2016 5:15pm
I certainly liked it, very unexpected, had 2 long positions from last night, easy profit, and out at 107 - now short again
  • #59,998
  • May 3, 2016 5:16pm May 3, 2016 5:16pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
I certainly liked it, very unexpected, had 2 long positions from last night, easy profit, and out at 107 - now short again
OK, it was a stop-run, some bigger banks unloaded short positions and caused this. Also again intervention by the central bank. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...st-step-usdjpy
  • #59,999
  • May 3, 2016 8:17pm May 3, 2016 8:17pm
As for picking the exact area of support, it is technically hard due to volatility, but once confirmation of support is found, I agree it will head back up.. Could retrace as far back down as 106.30's.. Something to consider if placing stops.. 15 min chart has good support around 106.40....
  • #60,000
  • May 3, 2016 8:52pm May 3, 2016 8:52pm
can anyone explain why jpy/usd is rising in asia session ?? today is bank holiday in japan . So whats causing that ??
I am new at forex, so i dont really understand this scenario.
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