Oil have found its direction for now - wonder how low it'll go this time
USD/RUB 6 replies
Rub's accountability 184 replies
Which brokers pay big swap for USD/RUB short position? 8 replies
Shorting Eur/Rub 3 replies
Reliable broker for USD/RUB 26 replies
Disliked{quote} Update on the short USD/RUB trade: It is approaching an area that will most probably be important but we will only know at the end of this week. This is the 65.32 level today, the 50 WMA. If it breaks this level it will be the first time since 2013 when the USD/RUB rate broke it decisively to the upside. Since then numerous attempts to break below it have failed (in Aug 2013, Oct 2013 and Jun 2014).Ignored
Disliked{quote} The USD/RUB is again at 50 WMA. It provided support the first time and the cross bounced more than 3 rubles. Second attempt now to break it. This second attempt is much more forceful as the cross gave up its gains in less than 2 days. We will see now if it breaks. If this happens next stop will be 63.86 on the daily time frame.Ignored
DislikedSo basically there are a bunch of open option contracts expiry May at 60 and at 73. It seems to me more like a risk reversal. It will be tough to reach the 60 level by the end of next week although noone knows. I am bearish on the pair but I cannot imagine such a move without fundamentals in a week. USD Index should be at 92 and oil at 50 for such a move to make sense although USD/RUB at 65 (current level) is also not the fair value at the moment. It should be below 64.Ignored
DislikedI think the CB of the RF has already quietly started to support the USD/RUB rate in line with what we had ready a few weeks ago proposed by the Finance minister and supported by the CB. Considering the level of oil and the USD Index by my calculations USD/RUB should have been under 63. Therefore for those who are short USD/RUB be cautious. With any pullback in the price of oil we could easily see USD/RUB back at 67. I personally find the resilience exhibited by the USD/RUB suspicious.Ignored
DislikedI think the CB of the RF has already quietly started to support the USD/RUB rate in line with what we had ready a few weeks ago proposed by the Finance minister and supported by the CB. Considering the level of oil and the USD Index by my calculations USD/RUB should have been under 63. Therefore for those who are short USD/RUB be cautious. With any pullback in the price of oil we could easily see USD/RUB back at 67. I personally find the resilience exhibited by the USD/RUB suspicious.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Fib level 61.8 at 49.5 for Crude oil high 2015 / low 2016. Oil is moving against the USD and is overbougth I think we will see qte strong retracement from around this levels, 50 is very round number too. Will not be surprised if we get an overshoot to above 50 level and if so it will IMO be a good TP level for USDRUB for this swing. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks for that. Makes a lot of sense. My max target as well for oil is no higher than 50.80. But I was hoping we would have seen 60 in USD/RUB by then. Now I am not sure anymore.Ignored
Disliked{quote} By measuring with ratio ( Each leg same size. ) The red lines on my chart I get target 50.95 . So 50.80 is a very nice target. Each fib level ( 38.2 and 50 ) has been overshootig a little. So I hope the ratio stay the same for this third leg and a small overshoot for the fib 61.8 level. I think we will see 60 later in the summer as Dr. Phonix pointed out some messages ago. But not for this swing. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} By measuring with ratio ( Each leg same size. ) The red lines on my chart I get target 50.95 . So 50.80 is a very nice target. Each fib level ( 38.2 and 50 ) has been overshootig a little. So I hope the ratio stay the same for this third leg and a small overshoot for the fib 61.8 level. I think we will see 60 later in the summer as Dr. Phonix pointed out some messages ago. But not for this swing. {image}Ignored
DislikedUSD Index Are at critical level. Waterfall ? . Fib are from leg high March / Low May. Heavy structure that must be broken for further bullish move for USD/X {image}Ignored