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USD/RUB

  • #601
  • Apr 15, 2016 8:57am Apr 15, 2016 8:57am
Oil have found its direction for now - wonder how low it'll go this time
  • #602
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:18am Apr 15, 2016 11:18am
Weekly: Still going down

D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #603
  • Apr 18, 2016 5:12am Apr 18, 2016 5:12am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Weekly: Still going down D.P. {image}
On Monday

Best
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #604
  • Apr 18, 2016 5:14am Apr 18, 2016 5:14am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} On Monday Best D.P. {image}
nice chart. subdued reaction.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #605
  • Apr 19, 2016 6:59am Apr 19, 2016 6:59am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Update on the short USD/RUB trade: It is approaching an area that will most probably be important but we will only know at the end of this week. This is the 65.32 level today, the 50 WMA. If it breaks this level it will be the first time since 2013 when the USD/RUB rate broke it decisively to the upside. Since then numerous attempts to break below it have failed (in Aug 2013, Oct 2013 and Jun 2014).
The USD/RUB is again at 50 WMA. It provided support the first time and the cross bounced more than 3 rubles. Second attempt now to break it. This second attempt is much more forceful as the cross gave up its gains in less than 2 days. We will see now if it breaks. If this happens next stop will be 63.86 on the daily time frame.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #606
  • Apr 19, 2016 7:47am Apr 19, 2016 7:47am
All of the sudden a stronger Ruble is bad lol..
http://bloom.bg/1relWtw
  • #607
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:14am Apr 19, 2016 9:14am
Quoting stylinex
All of the sudden a stronger Ruble is bad lol.. http://bloom.bg/1relWtw
Yes it is

we discussed this subject with Manosk yesterday.

http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/69915
(in Russian)

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #608
  • Apr 20, 2016 2:57am Apr 20, 2016 2:57am
Quoting manosk
{quote} The USD/RUB is again at 50 WMA. It provided support the first time and the cross bounced more than 3 rubles. Second attempt now to break it. This second attempt is much more forceful as the cross gave up its gains in less than 2 days. We will see now if it breaks. If this happens next stop will be 63.86 on the daily time frame.
Will this be the day?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #609
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:31pm Apr 29, 2016 1:31pm
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Hunting High and Low
  • #610
  • May 3, 2016 10:59am May 3, 2016 10:59am
USD/RUB H8 and H12 charts

Best
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #611
  • May 13, 2016 3:45am May 13, 2016 3:45am
So basically there are a bunch of open option contracts expiry May at 60 and at 73. It seems to me more like a risk reversal. It will be tough to reach the 60 level by the end of next week although noone knows. I am bearish on the pair but I cannot imagine such a move without fundamentals in a week. USD Index should be at 92 and oil at 50 for such a move to make sense although USD/RUB at 65 (current level) is also not the fair value at the moment. It should be below 64.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #612
  • May 13, 2016 4:46am May 13, 2016 4:46am
Quoting manosk
So basically there are a bunch of open option contracts expiry May at 60 and at 73. It seems to me more like a risk reversal. It will be tough to reach the 60 level by the end of next week although noone knows. I am bearish on the pair but I cannot imagine such a move without fundamentals in a week. USD Index should be at 92 and oil at 50 for such a move to make sense although USD/RUB at 65 (current level) is also not the fair value at the moment. It should be below 64.
refering to
http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/70779

Sure, such amount of open "put" positions is pointing us to the supposition of price movement downwards. The main question is WHEN?
It can hardly happen next week, but the mid summer can show us the level of 60.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #613
  • May 13, 2016 3:18pm May 13, 2016 3:18pm
Daily
End of week
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Hunting High and Low
  • #614
  • May 16, 2016 10:12am May 16, 2016 10:12am
I think the CB of the RF has already quietly started to support the USD/RUB rate in line with what we had ready a few weeks ago proposed by the Finance minister and supported by the CB. Considering the level of oil and the USD Index by my calculations USD/RUB should have been under 63. Therefore for those who are short USD/RUB be cautious. With any pullback in the price of oil we could easily see USD/RUB back at 67. I personally find the resilience exhibited by the USD/RUB suspicious.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #615
  • Edited 10:31am May 16, 2016 10:20am | Edited 10:31am
Quoting manosk
I think the CB of the RF has already quietly started to support the USD/RUB rate in line with what we had ready a few weeks ago proposed by the Finance minister and supported by the CB. Considering the level of oil and the USD Index by my calculations USD/RUB should have been under 63. Therefore for those who are short USD/RUB be cautious. With any pullback in the price of oil we could easily see USD/RUB back at 67. I personally find the resilience exhibited by the USD/RUB suspicious.
I have not seen any clues in press yet.
However you might become right indeed.

Best
D.P.

P.S. I have just found a comment of http://quote.rbc.ru/comments/2016/05/16/34642847.html
(in Russian) It is quiet though.
Hunting High and Low
  • #616
  • May 16, 2016 10:42am May 16, 2016 10:42am
Quoting manosk
I think the CB of the RF has already quietly started to support the USD/RUB rate in line with what we had ready a few weeks ago proposed by the Finance minister and supported by the CB. Considering the level of oil and the USD Index by my calculations USD/RUB should have been under 63. Therefore for those who are short USD/RUB be cautious. With any pullback in the price of oil we could easily see USD/RUB back at 67. I personally find the resilience exhibited by the USD/RUB suspicious.
Fib level 61.8 at 49.5 for Crude oil high 2015 / low 2016. Oil is moving against the USD and is overbougth I think we will see qte strong retracement from around this levels, 50 is very round number too. Will not be surprised if we get an overshoot to above 50 level and if so it will IMO be a good TP level for USDRUB for this swing.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #617
  • May 16, 2016 10:57am May 16, 2016 10:57am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Fib level 61.8 at 49.5 for Crude oil high 2015 / low 2016. Oil is moving against the USD and is overbougth I think we will see qte strong retracement from around this levels, 50 is very round number too. Will not be surprised if we get an overshoot to above 50 level and if so it will IMO be a good TP level for USDRUB for this swing. {image}
Thanks for that. Makes a lot of sense. My max target as well for oil is no higher than 50.80. But I was hoping we would have seen 60 in USD/RUB by then. Now I am not sure anymore.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #618
  • May 16, 2016 11:36am May 16, 2016 11:36am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Thanks for that. Makes a lot of sense. My max target as well for oil is no higher than 50.80. But I was hoping we would have seen 60 in USD/RUB by then. Now I am not sure anymore.
By measuring with ratio ( Each leg same size. ) The red lines on my chart I get target 50.95 . So 50.80 is a very nice target. Each fib level ( 38.2 and 50 ) has been overshootig a little. So I hope the ratio stay the same for this third leg and a small overshoot for the fib 61.8 level.

I think we will see 60 later in the summer as Dr. Phonix pointed out some messages ago. But not for this swing.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #619
  • May 16, 2016 11:47am May 16, 2016 11:47am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} By measuring with ratio ( Each leg same size. ) The red lines on my chart I get target 50.95 . So 50.80 is a very nice target. Each fib level ( 38.2 and 50 ) has been overshootig a little. So I hope the ratio stay the same for this third leg and a small overshoot for the fib 61.8 level. I think we will see 60 later in the summer as Dr. Phonix pointed out some messages ago. But not for this swing. {image}
Thanks again for the interesting point. My only concern as far as the price of oil is concerned is the continuous negativity on the part of the investors/traders, also here in the threads connected with oil, which makes me nervous. I am a bull and I played it in a very nice way through the best carry trade I have seen in years, short USD/RUB, but was expecting some pullbacks in order to establish a healthier trend. The "problem" is that traders have been so negative on oil that the price rise has been even more forceful. The "funny" thing is that despite the move from 26-48 this negativity hasn't dissipated which means that we will see further forceful increase in the price of oil. It seems that everyone, including the media, is trying to find reasons why oil should fall, with the exception today of GS who changed their view... That is my concern.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #620
  • May 16, 2016 11:51am May 16, 2016 11:51am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} By measuring with ratio ( Each leg same size. ) The red lines on my chart I get target 50.95 . So 50.80 is a very nice target. Each fib level ( 38.2 and 50 ) has been overshootig a little. So I hope the ratio stay the same for this third leg and a small overshoot for the fib 61.8 level. I think we will see 60 later in the summer as Dr. Phonix pointed out some messages ago. But not for this swing. {image}
Additionally, I saw your post
Quoting Earleone
USD Index Are at critical level. Waterfall ? . Fib are from leg high March / Low May. Heavy structure that must be broken for further bullish move for USD/X {image}
which coincides with a discussion we had with Dr. Pheonix about the connection of USD Index with USD/RUB and Oil. If we see a waterfall in USD Index and I have to say I am not an expert in USD Index so I dont forecast, then we should see important strengthening in USD/RUB and Oil.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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