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  • #1,065,601
  • May 2, 2016 4:20am May 2, 2016 4:20am
its laughable that people place trades based on the fact of where retail sentiment is,
  • #1,065,602
  • May 2, 2016 4:20am May 2, 2016 4:20am
Quoting geektrader
{quote} Finally a meaningful post! Well, yes, thats what Ive been saying as well, retailers over at my broker are 82% short EURUSD, but positions havent changed yet since 250 pips up-move, which mean it theoretically should go up further to get their money, I agree. However, it cant keep on raising forever, thats for sure, even though retailers seem to not easen their short positions. So Id not be 100% sure that this will go up, some levels and technicals still need to be respected. At least we could see a short-term correction.
you have got to be joking right?
  • #1,065,603
  • May 2, 2016 4:30am May 2, 2016 4:30am
miss the pre swamp eu thread
  • #1,065,604
  • May 2, 2016 4:33am May 2, 2016 4:33am
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} EU is going up because sucker money is short. Retailers are about 65% short it now.
and this guy should be banned from anything financial

most people think what he is doing is good because he won DEMO trading contests... and has changed his trade explorers from demo to live... his red diamond is irrelevant, all he knows is how to write a fantasy story about the Rothschild family and to blow up demo accounts the quicker you wake up to it the quicker you will filter out nonsense, which in turn should benefit your own trading ​
  • #1,065,605
  • May 2, 2016 4:42am May 2, 2016 4:42am
We should see 1.25 within 6 months in my opinion. From there within 5 years 1.70.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,065,606
  • May 2, 2016 4:50am May 2, 2016 4:50am
​EU could be ready to drop from here, stops just above 1.5
  • #1,065,607
  • May 2, 2016 4:51am May 2, 2016 4:51am
Quoting geektrader
{quote} Finally a meaningful post! Well, yes, thats what Ive been saying as well, retailers over at my broker are 82% short EURUSD, but positions havent changed yet since 250 pips up-move, which mean it theoretically should go up further to get their money, I agree. However, it cant keep on raising forever, thats for sure, even though retailers seem to not easen their short positions. So Id not be 100% sure that this will go up, some levels and technicals still need to be respected. At least we could see a short-term correction.
Higher tf structure is calling for further up move. That does not include mid term retrace however. Currently holding long +30 atm, waiting for 1.16 or 1.165
  • #1,065,608
  • May 2, 2016 4:53am May 2, 2016 4:53am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Higher tf structure is calling for further up move. That does not include mid term retrace however. Currently holding long +30 atm, waiting for 1.16 or 1.165
Yes we'll definitely past August 2015 highs soon. Probably this week.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,065,609
  • Edited 5:26am May 2, 2016 5:11am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting Don96
​EU could be ready to drop from here, stops just above 1.5
Indeed it looks also in my count like that....
a stall between 1.1503 to 1.1510.... is in the cards... the daily pivot R1 looks a little to far away for now...
Then we finish a bigger wave -a- of wave -ii- (blue one in my last charts).
and yes I think that wave b could be a longer retracement.... 1.1319-1.1296 could be possible.
Anyway this is a wave-b and can be complex.... also a wave b can be short as long.... but if I calculate my normal estimates.... 1.1319-1.1296 could be possible.... well we see

Thinking about closing my longs for now...

I must recall the above... wasn't looking that well.... and mixed some waves

but...we approaching now a wave iii high (indeed around 1.1505)
then we need to see a wave iv (deep one) to 1.1480
after that we need to see our high of the day around the weekly pivot... 1.1529

then we can expect that bigger wave down to around 1.1319 - 1.1296 (this is a bigger wave-b.... so actually it can be long or short....simple or complex... I have to look to the coming structure for making a call about that...

ofcourse all can happen if my HEW wave count is correct!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,065,610
  • May 2, 2016 5:14am May 2, 2016 5:14am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Indeed it looks also in my count like that.... a stall between 1.1503 to 1.1510.... is in the cards... the daily pivot R1 looks a little to far away for now... Then we finish a bigger wave -a- of wave -ii- (blue one in my last charts). and yes I think that wave b could be a longer retracement.... 1.1319-1.1296 could be possible. Anyway this is a wave-b and can be complex.... also a wave b can be short as long.... but if I calculate my normal estimates.... 1.1319-1.1296 could be possible.... well we see Thinking about closing my longs for...
I'm still waiting for 1.17 for bigger shorts, but for now... 1.1495 provides immediate resistance, along with 1.5 dead
  • #1,065,611
  • May 2, 2016 5:20am May 2, 2016 5:20am
Good Morning!

Today's S/R Levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
USDJPY
EURGBP
CABLE
DAX

EURO PINK

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post8903503
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #1,065,612
  • May 2, 2016 5:29am May 2, 2016 5:29am
Quoting Don96
{quote} I'm still waiting for 1.17 for bigger shorts, but for now... 1.1495 provides immediate resistance, along with 1.5 dead
So do you have any open position at eu?
  • #1,065,613
  • May 2, 2016 5:29am May 2, 2016 5:29am
Quoting Don96
{quote} I'm still waiting for 1.17 for bigger shorts, but for now... 1.1495 provides immediate resistance, along with 1.5 dead
well me too...think we can get higher over time
If we coming closely to the 1.17 (think so) ....then eventualy break it... but it's much to early to conclude that for now!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,065,614
  • May 2, 2016 5:32am May 2, 2016 5:32am
Quoting Raa
{quote} So do you have any open position at eu?
I do, risking 12, haven't traded EU for a while, waiting for 1.16 and 1.17 for bigger interest. I'm long EJ also from 122.000, most likely that only one will work, I'm hoping EJ

EJ area may help EU get above 1.5... or JPY gets weaker and USD>Euro and I'm extra happy
  • #1,065,615
  • May 2, 2016 5:39am May 2, 2016 5:39am
Still a dragging trend.
Waiting for a sharp run up 50-60 pips for a rejection,would be good for shorts.
Otherwise being long is still paying.
Waiting for a lower low or a rejection on daily chart is still right decision before going short .
Nice week of trading ahead of us.
God bless you;-)
  • #1,065,616
  • May 2, 2016 5:51am May 2, 2016 5:51am
I think that touch the border of the trend has already happened and we can expect further testing level 1.14800
  • #1,065,617
  • Edited 6:08am May 2, 2016 5:53am | Edited 6:08am
Does it surprise/disappoint anyone else on the forum that some of the posts have the emotional maturity of a Trump rally? I often see good data, number crunching and thoroughly exhaustive analysis (Which is awesome! Thank you everybody. J) but... Well, I suppose I should be grateful; if not for emotional interference it would be more difficult to be profitable. I understand that we all transition through the emotional growth (Yes, I include myself I have made, still make and will make mistakes) of trading (i.e. learning how to detach from the "what if" of the trade.), but the reasoning behind lambasting someone that is, or you believe to be, wrong escapes me; not for humanity in general but for a place dedicated to people who desire success. As I understand it this (website/forum)s purpose is to support, encourage, inform, etc... You get the idea. It has been rare that I see a post that says something along the lines of, "I see your point, I have done that before and it cost me but I have found that *explanation* (rational) ask yourself *insert question.*" If their post baffles; why not ask why they believe that in more detail? (No one is completely correct or incorrect, and you never know they might have a thought that is useful to you) To comment negatively and have that fleeting sense of smug superiority is a handicap to your optimal success. Furthermore, it is overwhelming instinctual to defend (or avoid and subsequently resent) when one's self is attacked. If someone confronts you and says, in whatever words, your idea (which is a proposal you may have put much of your time and effort into) is crap, wrong, makes fun of your idea, or dismisses you entirely with a post aimed to others. Think,... how would you feel; remember those times in your life (FX or anything else)? How did you feel? Was it enjoyable? So, why do it to someone else? Anyways..., on to the EUR/USD.

It seems to be on an uptrend. I suggest to taking a look at the confluence of major pivot points on other USD/x pairs. In addition, peruse the significant gains against USD, multi-thousand(s) of pips in size, on pairs like ZAR, RUB, MXN, and whatever else ( I admit the actual percentage of change is relatively close across most USD pairs. Visually some currency pairs can have a greater impact.) Then factor that in to the short and medium term trades you are considering. Tight(ish) stops with larger longs taking chunks of profit now and then from your total position and rebuys on retractions at whatever comfort level that you have. Oh, and the amount of short trades can potentially be useful (not the number of traders; the lots) I have more but: One, I do not know if this is worth my time; does anybody find my post helpful?, two, I have work to do, and etc. Hope this post has some use for you; it was my first. Good luck everyone!
Remember, WHY you are doing this...
  • #1,065,618
  • May 2, 2016 6:11am May 2, 2016 6:11am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote}closing my longs for now... I must recall the above... wasn't looking that well.... and mixed some waves but...we approaching now a wave iii high (indeed around 1.1505) then we need to see a wave iv (deep one) to 1.1480 after that we need to see our high of the day around the weekly pivot... 1.1529 then we can expect that bigger wave down to around 1.1319 - 1.1296 (this is a bigger wave-b.... so actually it can be long or short....simple or complex... I have to look to the coming structure for making a call about that... ofcourse...
grrrrr.....market tricked me....from here to 1.1518-24-26
then the bigger retracement I told about...

if first below 1.1466 => I have to review my count....

Now I'm in waiting modus.....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,065,619
  • May 2, 2016 6:19am May 2, 2016 6:19am
Looks like buyers dont have strenhgt to break resistance at 1.1493 and try to reach 1.1500-1540 zone where could be huge stops and very strong sellers...
  • #1,065,620
  • May 2, 2016 6:30am May 2, 2016 6:30am
Quoting Beli
Looks like buyers dont have strenhgt to break resistance at 1.1493 and try to reach 1.1500-1540 zone where could be huge stops and very strong sellers...
Today is holiday in UK hence thin Trading
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