Disliked{quote} I do have to spoil the loving party here, cause it does seem, you are missing something very important: how forex works? Simply put, there are two balances. Long and short. If you would have been a market maker, which balance would win? Answer that one and now you will know why a popular winning strategy will stop working. It is IMPOSSIBLE to have a winning system used by many. Cause where the rate will go is all on the bankers sole decision. And they will mostly chose the smaller of both balances for a very good reason. No need to show...Ignored
I was taught that volatility is a function of liquidity, and that price moves to the less liquid side of the market in search of the closest or most dominant block of order flow. Overly simplified still but closer to what I know the movement of price to be.
So while I understand the essence of what you're saying, for me it simplifies it further and almost too much for something that has far more complexities to it. And in doing so cannot, for me, possibly be used as reasoning for why publicly known strategies must eventually fail.
I'm not claiming to be an expert on market structure and the function of liquidity, it's simply that what i was taught goes against the reasoning for the claim being made. Always up for acquiring more knowledge/resolving incorrect understandings if someone can answer the questions posed.
I have put the question to someone I have learnt a great deal from and will share what I receive back.
Happy Sunday