The Really Useless Thread | Page 7010 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,181
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:14pm Apr 27, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} My point of view was shorter than you. Maybe I am writting in the wrong thread. But,yesterday, and during the day, till the FOMC it has been a place to scalp shorts( if you were a scalper you would appreciate this) as it was ( it is?) the Flip zone.Take a look about the shorts you could have taken since yesterday from 1.13,3xx Yesterday bad datas from US were not able to cross it. It was the border, the defense.
ah sorry, I'm going for the swing. i thought you were referring to my posted chart and trading the swing
  • #140,182
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:21pm Apr 27, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} do or die for US equities now & AAPL crashing on a dismal ER could be the harbinger. The Market's own strumpet, Janet Yellen, need only say a single bearish syllable and the house of cards will fall, and sell in May go away will rule the day.
I didn't hear it. Yellen Fed supposedly leaves the door open for June hikes but nobody believes it. Same old dovish shit and markets will eat it up and grind up into May. We should see SnP 2,100 in a minute and 2,130 next week. ATH's across the board and then short those in the face of Eurozone angst, pump n dump & pump n dump, forever......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,183
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:56pm Apr 27, 2016 2:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I didn't hear it. Yellen Fed supposedly leaves the door open for June hikes but nobody believes it. Same old dovish shit and markets will eat it up and grind up into May. We should see SnP 2,100 in a minute and 2,130 next week. ATH's across the board and then short those in the face of Eurozone angst, pump n dump & pump n dump, forever......
nayyy ... GDP will settle the deal. Nothing new FOMC as expected, June is on the cards by default (2 hikes at least this year) ...2100.xx holding the M roll will be telling ...failure and the high of the year will be around the corner ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,184
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:12pm Apr 27, 2016 3:12pm
well, def it be dicey - we could see some more big earnings whiffs a la AAPL and that will be a wet blanket.....but the sell in May go away dream really needs to see the Brexit angst get cranking.....I'm not in a hurry. New ath's in early-mid May pretty much play to my hand....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,185
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:15pm Apr 27, 2016 3:15pm
FB nice beat, bulls sigh relief, Kuroda on tap, bulls take control tomorrow?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,186
  • Edited 3:31pm Apr 27, 2016 3:19pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting sisse
F...all eyes on AAPL for the opening. Maps also cleared for today with 1.130x [check] Euro confirmed flip level for today news flow ....plenty of action expected in the next few sessions with FED/ monthly flows in play ....
Surprise surprise ...no really Euro rolling 1.130x after an uneventful FOMC but the play extends to the GDP / M flows. No winners in contest 3 after 1.134x was knocked down on the spike and contest 4 still in play so all open ...

sisse

Quoting sisse
{quote} ++++ Quick Call 3 [update 3]++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.128x (elapsed time 3 days 11 hours)

++++ Quick Call 3 [update 4 NO winners]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.130x (total time 4 days 10 hours)


-> LMT BUY to 1.139x


Pixie666

PAStalker

workingforex

------------------------------------ --------------

-> LMT SELL to 1.119x


IMARICH1

hoom,

Pharm0r

glassblower

monkey@forex

Replicant

eborn


--> @IMARICH TIP ... Again 5 days? and the play was ONLY killed in the mover and shaker of the week.... hope you got that hint very clear now after this month...

Quoting sisse
Thanks all TABLE CLOSED !!! Options are : -> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP => 1.138x | STP => 1.113x | r:r -=> 4:1 -> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP => 1.118x | STP => 1.143x | r:r -=> 4:1 +++if you want 2 play both sides...please mention order of the move ...+++ +++No takers for a BUY and then SELL move ??? +++. +++ buy and sells limit are not flexible for the exercise ....either you are in at the price or not... IN -> LMT BUY 1.118x vasily, Fadhl, primejarvis...

++++ Quick Call 4 [update 1]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.130x (elapsed time 0 days 2 hours)


-> LMT SELL 1.138x -> TP => 1.118x | STP => 1.143x | r:r -=> 4:1


-> LMT SELL 1.138x

boom, Replicant, Arshamv, Pixie666, PipJet, .IMARICH1, workingforex


> LMT SELL / -> LMT BUY

PAStalker, Grinsakh, Pharm0r, glassblower


----------------- ------------------ ----------------


-> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP => 1.138x | STP => 1.113x | r:r -=> 4:1


-> LMT BUY 1.118x

vasily, Fadhl, primejarvis


-> LMT BUY / > LMT SELL

born, Chibaya

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,187
  • Apr 28, 2016 3:03am Apr 28, 2016 3:03am
BOJ flop, Europe getting closer and closer to the Japanese Disease (Sluggish growth, deflation, negative rates and ageing population). Markets in standby until key US numbers with NY while Euro stuck in the short term wide range all month long grinding the highs in look for the 1.14xx handle for today news.

Nothing to do here, same levels, same plays, same all..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,188
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:19am Apr 28, 2016 5:19am
Quoting sisse
Euro failed by a dozen of ticks to clear 1.119x. Surprised? not really not here
Could you explain why you didn't think the market would go lower? Was it FA or TA reason?

If TA, was it an expansion of the short term range? 1.1465->1.1340->1.1215
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd28_04_2016.PNG Size: 138 KB
  • #140,189
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:35am Apr 28, 2016 5:35am
I'm not officially in cause I couldn't respond but in reality I have my orders lined up: SELL limit, followed by a buy limit. I'm curious what the outcome will be. I'm usually also not inclined to work like this (having a buy limit at target) because it looks too much like machinegun trading and it doesn't feel right. But this situation is different because I have also been following gator's analyses and his projections to 1.17x and even +1.2 look sound so I'm okay with a buy at that level. Good luck all who are participating, but those with a sell/buy setup I wish some more luck !
  • #140,190
  • Apr 28, 2016 7:50am Apr 28, 2016 7:50am
--> @IMARICH TIP ... Again 5 days? and the play was ONLY killed in the mover and shaker of the week.... hope you got that hint very clear now after this month...

Yes, I believe this exercise has helped me understand TIMING better and how long a trade with actual flows may take to develop. Instead of shooting at everything that moves and over trading.

5 days is the norm. And, again I have seen I can be within 10 pips or so of my target and I will probably be even more successful grabbing 60-70% of the move to these targets and let the rest run. This last trade where there were no winners; however, I would have done this around .1210. I would have bagged 80 pips and had a cheap tix if this was the bigger move. However, as stated before, the FLIP area at .1344 would have been the place to SHORT on Exercise 3 as .1290 was in the center of the range and BIG NO NO to take a trade.

GDP slight miss but close to inline, unemployment numbers in line and GDP index in line. Not sure if this is going to be enough.............
  • #140,191
  • Apr 28, 2016 7:52am Apr 28, 2016 7:52am
Flop in GDP and watch-out for Dollar fading away to the lows one more time with the expectation of a hike June fading in the short term.

Eyes on the Open for a chance in Euro to test the top of the range ...not much to do here after the news so same levels, same trades, same all across the board ...

Quoting PAStalker
{quote} Could you explain why you didn't think the market would go lower? Was it FA or TA reason? If TA, was it an expansion of the short term range? 1.1465->1.1340->1.1215 {image}
??? ?

We have been in neutral outlook for a few weeks already?. We have been chopping up and down in the wide range forever now ...what do you mean not going down? ...check the last 4 exercises thats the whole point of them ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,192
  • Edited 8:20am Apr 28, 2016 8:07am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting IMARICH1
... I would have done this around .1210. I would have bagged 80 pips and had a cheap tix if this was the bigger move. However, as stated before, the FLIP area at .1344 would have been the place to SHORT on Exercise 3 as .1290 was in the center of the range and BIG NO NO to take a trade.
--> Thats why are you still getting it wrong. You shouldn't get obsessed with being on the market. We are trading the 3rd smaller monthly range in 16 years !!! ...there is not woulda or coulda ...there was nothing to trade in such a small range ...don't try to squeeze something out of nothing.

--> The main conclusion of this month and this a KEY wrap up for the last 4 exercises is that you DON'T have to force TRADES !!!!. You have placed 3 theoretical trades in the Euro this month (the 4th one is still not triggered yet) that is ALREADY TOO MANY for the range we are playing !!!... FYI, I have placed 1 single miserably trade in the Euro this month ....

--> If you have followed strict rules only using as general reference the exercises, only the first one @ 1.139x is the one you 'should' have take it (Short or long was irrelevant). The rest it was just noise !!!. Point being STRONG DISCIPLINE & RISK MANAGEMENT is the name of the game if you want to be CONSISTENT in the LONG RUN...not shoulda, woulda, or trying to force swings in the middle of a compress small neutral range ...

--> Believe me, if I ever going to give you any semi decent hint about trading ...take this last month long LIVE example as a lesson on how to develop discipline, evaluate proper risk management and try to put timing in a decent and clear framework ...

Let's see how it goes for NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,193
  • Apr 28, 2016 8:09am Apr 28, 2016 8:09am
sisse,

I did not look at GDP #'s to indicate a FLOP via a slight miss as it was off expectations of .2% .....especially with unemployment INLINE

GDP #'s in 1st Q are usually lower than 2nd Q. Unemployment is the lowest its been in 4 decades. Unemployment and personal income are better which should increase consumer spending which inturn will increase the GDP.

My thinking is GDP will increase as it did last year in 2nd Q. Consumers spending less not due to lack of employment or income. This is where I am focusing more as this has a direct correlation to GDP. Therefore, the confounding variable with GDP #'s is a lack of spending and economy still strong and growing. Why the lack of spending? Hmmmmmmm
  • #140,194
  • Apr 28, 2016 8:12am Apr 28, 2016 8:12am
Quoting sisse
... sisse
Apologies..should have explained further..I meant go lower to the target of 1.1190 in the exercise
  • #140,195
  • Apr 28, 2016 9:26am Apr 28, 2016 9:26am
You're forgetting the revision....
  • #140,196
  • Apr 28, 2016 10:56am Apr 28, 2016 10:56am
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> Thats why are you still getting it wrong. You shouldn't get obsessed with being on the market. We are trading the 3rd smaller monthly range in 16 years !!! ...there is not woulda or coulda ...there was nothing to trade in such a small range ...don't try to squeeze something out of nothing. --> The main conclusion of this month and this a KEY wrap up for the last 4 exercises is that you DON'T have to force TRADES !!!!. You have placed 3 theoretical trades in the Euro this month (the 4th one is still not triggered yet) that is ALREADY...
Sisse, any good timing to get rid off from this boring zone i.e., 1.12-1.14 ..... what ur say
Re-Incarnated
  • #140,197
  • Apr 28, 2016 11:06am Apr 28, 2016 11:06am
Watch out for US equities triggering 'imminent break up alerts' for a chance to test ATH in MAY ... bastards riding the pig as if there is not tomorrow, manic mode continue squeezing every penny before the summer.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,198
  • Apr 28, 2016 11:14am Apr 28, 2016 11:14am
First update from the FED/M close combo:

OIL following though $44.4x holding the break on the Energies close unlocks $48.xx for the Spring and will trigger

--> change of short term outlook from Neutral to BUY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,199
  • Apr 28, 2016 11:19am Apr 28, 2016 11:19am
Second update from the FED/M close combo:

June starting to look a bit out of the equation for FED hikes. Treasuries and Gold making a strong U turn after the the FED. With today's close:

--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from Sell to Soft buy to complete the ext to 1300.xx before the summer.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,200
  • Apr 28, 2016 11:24am Apr 28, 2016 11:24am
Third update from the BOJ/FED/M close combo:

After the flop in BOJ bulls got a very short lived rally. Reconfirming mid term outlook in YEN (UJ) on sell but more importantly

--> putting back short term outlook to strong sell to complete pending 106.xx and the extension 100.xx for the summer.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
10 traders viewing now