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  • #140,081
  • Apr 23, 2016 11:25am Apr 23, 2016 11:25am
Quoting Pharm0r
anything ever come of this?
yes, I am available too. Help with the work or business visa will be much appreciated.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,082
  • Apr 23, 2016 12:35pm Apr 23, 2016 12:35pm
  • #140,083
  • Apr 23, 2016 1:54pm Apr 23, 2016 1:54pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} YEN sweeping the board on rates expectations. As always with the BOJ, sharp shifts in expectations when things get out of hands but always ending up just delaying the pain and kicking the can further down the road. UJ 113.xx handle unlocked as we trade air. [u]Short term outlook changed by default from neutral to buy. However no changes in mid term outlook for UJ stays in sell sisse
Could someone please put fib on UJ between this year high and low? I don't think we gonna stop on 113. But I can't since I'm using just my phone to check trades on my travel. And as I know my "luck" in trading, this might reverse back to top.
  • #140,084
  • Edited 10:20am Apr 25, 2016 10:10am | Edited 10:20am
A rather uneventful day across the board with only Sterling flirting with an extension rally (1.49xx handle) before the jitters enter in full motion. 2080.xx i(S&P reference) is the only level in play for the FED and it will be rain maker across all asset classes...until then same levels, same trades, same all...

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} anything ever come of this?
Yes but in a different way that was originally thinking... Trying to have an alpha version (MVP) for the spring. Still early in the process, looking for CTOs is a pain. Waiting for the Brexit vote too. If the UK leave the EU, it will be better to set some office for the the creatives, developers and IT in Berlin rather than London ...

We'll see how it goes in a couple of weeks....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,085
  • Apr 25, 2016 11:07am Apr 25, 2016 11:07am
Quoting sisse
A rather uneventful day across the board with only Sterling flirting with an extension rally (1.49xx handle) before the jitters enter in full motion. 2080.xx i(S&P reference) is the only level in play for the FED and it will be rain maker across all asset classes...until then same levels, same trades, same all... {quote} Yes but in a different way that was originally thinking... Trying to have an alpha version (MVP) for the spring. Still early in the process, looking for CTOs is a pain. Waiting for the Brexit vote too. If the UK leave the...
Would you not consider it the top of the short term range? Seems like early FOMC positioning
  • #140,086
  • Apr 25, 2016 1:06pm Apr 25, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting sisse
Current Euro price @ 1.124x (elapsed time 0day 12 hours) ...

++++ Quick Call 3 [update 2]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.125x (elapsed time 2 days 12 hours)


-> LMT BUY to 1.139x


Pixie666

PAStalker

workingforex

------------------------------------ --------------

-> LMT SELL to 1.119x


IMARICH1

hoom,

Pharm0r

glassblower

monkey@forex

Replicant

eborn


Tough luck !!! for bears in the contest back to square one. Euro failed by a dozen of ticks to clear 1.119x. Surprised? not really not here ...lessons learnt coming in a few for some of the guys above.

For now Euro with a slightly bearish close TA wise for the FED with only caveat we are trading an inside range and Bulls haven't capitulate yet ...nothing to see until then...for the guys in the exercise only losers so far and no winners...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,087
  • Edited 1:25pm Apr 25, 2016 1:13pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Would you not consider it the top of the short term range? Seems like early FOMC positioning
Indeed the whole currency board is protected and very well limited until then. However, don't forget that everybody wants to hammer Sterling before the Brexit jitters so its getting very crowded now and big sharks with deep pockets are in the market (guarantee) making extremely hard/expensive to jump in. The crowded and closer we get to Brexit, the harder will be to jump in ....

By experience only we are aligning in GU to very sharp Shock and Awe short lived legs down that will pretty much kill/avoid most traders jumping in on time ...

We'll see but for now ...FED is the only and only one in play ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,088
  • Apr 25, 2016 1:27pm Apr 25, 2016 1:27pm
Sisse some good ideas overall, agree re GBPUSD only to some extent, the pattern in GU is pretty consistent lately just have to figure it out.
here's H4 GU.

PS: not saying we've topped out the current swing but very close in terms of both price and time.
hope this post does not interfer with the flow in the thread.
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  • #140,089
  • Apr 25, 2016 1:39pm Apr 25, 2016 1:39pm
Quoting asgcorp
Sisse some good ideas overall, agree re GBPUSD only to some extent, the pattern in GU is pretty consistent lately just have to figure it out. here's H4 GU. PS: not saying we've topped out the current swing but very close in terms of both price and time. hope this post does not interfer with the flow in the thread. {image}
There are a lot major forces in play at these levels beyond intraday and short term moves. My 2 cents zoom out a bit as you may get burnt playing so close to the markets at the current levels....

1.437x holding the FED (with a Dovish FED) unlocks a quick test 1.471x as there are major hands and short stops stacked at the 1.45xx handle. From there is pretty much just AIR till the highs of the 1.49xx for the extension(Brexit FA Break out) ...meaning it will be extremely hard to jump in to the down side before June...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,090
  • Apr 25, 2016 1:48pm Apr 25, 2016 1:48pm
Thank you sisse for the insight.

Basically playing the tiny position with large stop game personally.

This level was expected for both bulls and bears....to the pip. To the pip, while doesn't mean squat on the big picture, gives me the confidence for the immediate positioning for a BE chance before FOMC. If it goes it goes with or without me, but wont cost a dime.
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  • #140,091
  • Apr 25, 2016 1:50pm Apr 25, 2016 1:50pm
yeah also not trading that intraday. My take is that we max out before Fed @ 4540-80 area and upon Fed we sell off into 4300 region and pretty much from then I agree we rally into 4600-4800, due to D1 inverted H&S pattern. GU is fairly strong atm.

What's your take on USD heading into Fomc? I see USD as an underdog atm but could pull off a stealth rally into Fomc. Generally dollar is also stronger into the May monthly transition.
  • #140,092
  • Apr 25, 2016 2:08pm Apr 25, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Thank you sisse for the insight. Basically playing the tiny position with large stop game personally. This level was expected for both bulls and bears....to the pip. To the pip, while doesn't mean squat on the big picture, gives me the confidence for the immediate positioning for a BE chance before FOMC. If it goes it goes with or without me, but wont cost a dime. {image}
hmm...

Well you are trying to outguess the FED (hike). Nothing wrong with that part (although you are betting against high odds for the opposite outcome) but I am not really sure if I fully agree with your TA view. Whatever the case, you know what i think about 'catching a big fish with a small boat or viceversa'...so GL and let see what the FED brings to the table...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,093
  • Apr 25, 2016 2:18pm Apr 25, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} hmm... Well you are trying to outguess the FED (hike). Nothing wrong with that part (although you are betting against high odds for the opposite outcome) but I am not really sure if I fully agree with your TA view. Whatever the case, you know what i think about 'catching a big fish with a small boat or viceversa'...so GL and let see what the FED brings to the table... sisse
I do understand exactly what you mean.

As far as timing for the FED positioning that I'm looking for, would you say I'm off? That is the core issue I'm trying to attack (less trades, correct timing for macro swings)
  • #140,094
  • Apr 25, 2016 5:08pm Apr 25, 2016 5:08pm
Quoting sisse
Yes but in a different way that was originally thinking... Trying to have an alpha version (MVP) for the spring. Still early in the process...
Hey sisse, are you talking about a trading platform? I'd be interested in helping you develop one, but only part-time and from Japan. Please PM me if you're interested. Thanks.
You reap what you sow.
  • #140,095
  • Apr 25, 2016 11:48pm Apr 25, 2016 11:48pm
Quoting sisse
... By experience only we are aligning in GU to very sharp Shock and Awe short lived legs down that will pretty much kill/avoid most traders jumping in on time ... We'll see but for now ...FED is the only and only one in play .... sisse
chickenshit FOMC will play the same old dove song. The Yellen Fed is the last place I would look for a surprise hike. Most likely they serve up the punch and equities rally into May week 1. The Brexit vote is like those big dark storm clouds you see on the prairie - it keeps getting bigger and darker. it keeps coming and coming, ....then it finally arrives....and, no rain....just a lot of hot air...and then it's gone. Well, as you say - we shall see. I am counting on some steady uptick in the ^vix...if I get even a little of what I am looking for I will do well.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,096
  • Edited 2:03am Apr 26, 2016 1:36am | Edited 2:03am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I do understand exactly what you mean. As far as timing for the FED positioning that I'm looking for, would you say I'm off? That is the core issue I'm trying to attack (less trades, correct timing for macro swings)
Well, depends on what you are looking for.

-> According to your chart micro/intraday I would say you are on the borderline on jumping the gun.

The trigger comes from the FED this week you are taking a trade +/- dozen bars before ...you can see the 'slight' problem. As I always recommend in major reports and news, take it in the way out not in the way in ...your account drawdown and w% will thank me later....

-> However, if you are swinging (which is not your map) I would say yes you are on time for the FED but not with you ridiculous tiny stop. Although this FED is expected to be a inline/nothing new with expectations.

Let me use a stupid analogy.

Imagine you are in a huge mega buffet Vegas style where you have 500 dishes to choose from Mac and Cheese to Lobster Thermidor and everything else in between. What you are doing at these levels (with a huge trigger like the FED) is rushing to the buffet table before the service start trying to 'stuff yourself " with the first basket of bread in the table ...as you and the Hotels well know the first few tables in the buffets are the very cheap, heavy, fatty carbs filling leftovers from the last service that you want to get rid off quickly to the unaware hungry tourist/suckers that are paying 100 times more of what they should if they are going for the cheap stuff...

Since you know the trigger schedule and you know is one of those Major Reports that everybody is tracking, play it smart and efficiently with a proper map for that particular area. In simple words, look around the whole buffet table first and try to aim for the lobster, the bluefin tuna sashimi and the foie gras ....make your ($) worth the risk and potential volatility available on a report like that.

I hope it helps.

Quoting The Fool
The Brexit vote is like those big dark storm clouds you see on the prairie - it keeps getting bigger and darker. it keeps coming and coming, ....then it finally arrives....and, no rain....j well.
Agree. I would even say the Brexit flop is even more tradable than UK out outcome. For now, last mini hurdle until the end of May with the FED. As long as FED do nothing new, we are set for a very mild and calm May ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,097
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:08am Apr 26, 2016 4:08am
Great reply, thanks

I suppose, looking at the macro view- with what is "expected", we are aligned with blowing the top of the range from the beginning of the year....

thus setting a new HIGH for the year
  • #140,098
  • Apr 26, 2016 5:02am Apr 26, 2016 5:02am
Hi sisse,
Could you comment on below when you have the time.

Quoting sisse
...lessons learnt coming in a few for some of the guys above.
Quoting PAStalker
Be patient, wait for the major news/event, place limit buy or limit sells at targets.
For myself, I think I should have stayed out of the current exercise and waited..and placed a buy limit(1.119x) or sell limit(1.139x) depending on my bias.
The problem I see is if these targets would not be reached before the FOMC meeting & instead on the day..would it be too volatile if there is a surprise decision?
Or possibly buy limit should be ruled out, just in case of a surprise rake hike..
Also on the exercise, possibly a larger stop should have been used.


Is this why you weren't surprised TA wise?
Quoting sisse
Euro failed by a dozen of ticks to clear 1.119x. Surprised? not really not here
Regards.
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  • #140,099
  • Apr 26, 2016 5:52am Apr 26, 2016 5:52am
Eyes on the Euro for the open. 1.130x holding the opening range is enough to draw the complete map for tomorrow FED flows ....

Quoting Pharm0r
Great reply, thanks I suppose, looking at the macro view- with what is "expected", we are aligned with blowing the top of the range from the beginning of the year.... thus setting a new HIGH for the year
You asked about timing not direction. First, market has spoken and answered your question already about timing with your intraday chart .... On direction a dovish/inline FED will be more than enough to continue the short squeeze as there is only air above the 1.45xx handle

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,100
  • Edited 6:11am Apr 26, 2016 5:59am | Edited 6:11am
Quoting sisse
Eyes on the Euro for the open. 1.130x holding the opening range is enough to draw the complete map for tomorrow FED flows .... {quote} You asked about timing not direction. First, market has spoken and answered your question already about timing with your intraday chart .... On direction a dovish/inline FED will be more than enough to continue the short squeeze as there is only air above the 1.45xx handle sisse
Yup I see

When you hinted at your disagreement with my TA view I zoomed out, makes more sense considering dovish fed expectations

Easier to see obviously after the opening London move

Also see how the timing works out from both the macro and micro views you suggested, but considering the expectations- even with wide stop on the swing I'd be battling a new yearly high...suggests much better places to short than where I was- so it could be said I was jumping the gun on both instances imo
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