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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,101
  • Apr 26, 2016 8:18am Apr 26, 2016 8:18am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yup I see When you hinted at your disagreement with my TA view I zoomed out, makes more sense considering dovish fed expectations Easier to see obviously after the opening London move Also see how the timing works out from both the macro and micro views you suggested, but considering the expectations- even with wide stop on the swing I'd be battling a new yearly high...suggests much better places to short than where I was- so it could be said I was jumping the gun on both instances
-> Don't be afraid to take a trade in the way out instead of in the way in. Check some back post with the general concept: "Let the market go overboard sucking the laggers and latecomers to jump in and squeeze them on the way back on the failure".

-> In simple words and despite what TA you use, if you want to take a side (for whatever reason) instead of looking to trade to the tick for entries (thats a signal of scare money or over leverage), find a spot in which you can take the other side on the way back (it doesn't matter what TA you use for this) so you want an exhaustion area that overshoot your entry level so you can trade the other side of those trapped in the wrong side ...

-> If you are right in direction you will have a winner if you don't, there is no system, level or TA that will help you or change the outcome. Missing a few ticks in order to time momentum better and increase W% and reduce drawdown is much more important than trying to be the smart ass that tried to outsmart the whole financial world and traded the perfect entry to the tick ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,102
  • Apr 26, 2016 8:25am Apr 26, 2016 8:25am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Between 1.1335 and 1.1363 (these corrected) Agreed, it could go straight to next area- but most times it wont...if it does I already have a plan in place (just need to get the timing right- which is why I'm here) edit: this is usually how the bounce would start in the chart shown, timing-wise- I'd like to see the German info on Monday and US tuesday give me the entry. Seems like inline or better would be enough to give me the bounce- but not near enough to kill the 1.1400 resistance. In my eyes, that will only be killed through the...
Back to the EU...here we are

Considering the spanking I just got from sisse, I think perhaps I'll wait and see
  • #140,103
  • Apr 26, 2016 8:32am Apr 26, 2016 8:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} -> If you are right in direction you will have a winner if you don't, there is no system, level or TA that will help you or change the outcome. Missing a few ticks in order to time momentum better and increase W% and reduce drawdown is much more important than trying to be the smart ass that tried to outsmart the whole financial world and traded the perfect entry to the tick ......
Golden
  • #140,104
  • Apr 26, 2016 8:51am Apr 26, 2016 8:51am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Back to the EU...here we are Considering the spanking I just got from sisse, I think perhaps I'll wait and see
Maybe the flip area was a place to let a short, 1,3039. I have realized later.
  • #140,105
  • Apr 26, 2016 9:18am Apr 26, 2016 9:18am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Maybe the flip area was a place to let a short, 1,3039. I have realized later.
Suspect that tomorrow we will visit again on a spike, thus allowing the trade to be taken after the news (and in line with sisse's suggestions)

If FOMC is bearish, we should visit it again regardless
  • #140,106
  • Apr 26, 2016 9:21am Apr 26, 2016 9:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} There are a lot major forces in play at these levels beyond intraday and short term moves. My 2 cents zoom out a bit as you may get burnt playing so close to the markets at the current levels.... 1.437x holding the FED (with a Dovish FED) unlocks a quick test 1.471x as there are major hands and short stops stacked at the 1.45xx handle. From there is pretty much just AIR till the highs of the 1.49xx for the extension(Brexit FA Break out) ...meaning it will be extremely hard to jump in to the down side before June... sisse
nailed it.
  • #140,107
  • Apr 26, 2016 2:49pm Apr 26, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}chickenshit FOMC will play the same old dove song. The Yellen Fed is the last place I would look for a surprise hike. Most likely they serve up the punch and equities rally into May week 1. The Brexit vote is like those big dark storm clouds you see on the prairie - it keeps getting bigger and darker. it keeps coming and coming, ....then it finally arrives....and, no rain....just a lot of hot air...and then it's gone. Well, as you say - we shall see. I am counting on some steady uptick in the ^vix...if I get even a little of what I am looking...
Trying to convince myself to switch my account from IB over to TD Ameritrade (thinkorswim) so I've been playing with the demo....

Does the current price on chart (set to bid) and buy/sell price look suspicious to you? Ignore all the stops/buys/etc. Getting used to the platform order system. Putting in a trouble call to the tos guys.....

switching between commission and non-commission still has the issue but different prices from the commission....(about 2 pips different). WTF?
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  • #140,108
  • Apr 26, 2016 2:51pm Apr 26, 2016 2:51pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ++++ Quick Call 3 [update 2]++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.125x (elapsed time 2 days 12 hours) ...

++++ Quick Call 3 [update 3]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.128x (elapsed time 3 days 11 hours)


-> LMT BUY to 1.139x


Pixie666

PAStalker

workingforex

------------------------------------ --------------

-> LMT SELL to 1.119x


IMARICH1

hoom,

Pharm0r

glassblower

monkey@forex

Replicant

eborn


I can only smile about today move in the Euro. Not even if I have chart fit an example wouldn't have been so perfect for the exercise.... Bears saved by a tick at 1.134x. Surprise? ...well this time a big shout @IMARICH1 are you surprised that 1.134x held? why did it hold?...

Euro fighting very hard 1.128x for the roll, textbook of a wide range short term. Neither bears or bulls capitulating until tomorrow FED so nothing to see here with map cleared for tomorrow flows. Although bears barely held today, they hold at the end so only losers and no winners...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,109
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:10pm Apr 26, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}. Bears saved by a tick at 1.134x. Surprise? ...well this time a big shout @IMARICH1 are you surprised that 1.134x held? why did it hold?...... sisse
Because of the DOFU obviously
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  • #140,110
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:15pm Apr 26, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ++++ Quick Call 3 [update 3]++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.128x (elapsed time 3 days 11 hours) -> LMT BUY to 1.139x Pixie666 PAStalker workingforex ------------------------------------ -------------- -> LMT SELL to 1.119x IMARICH1 hoom, Pharm0r glassblower monkey@forex Replicant eborn I can only smile about today move in the Euro. Not even if I have chart fit an example wouldn't have been so perfect for the exercise.... Bears saved...
why did 1.134x hold ?
what would be the impact of a hint of a june hike be in term of flows across fx board and especially EURUSD ?
what does 1.122x, 1.128x and 1.134x stand for TA wise ?
who are the real movers and shakers with direct impact on certain levels ?
does HFT's or big banks/institutions have the upper hand and purposely go in sync with each other in term of moves short/med/long term against the mass retail traders ? what is the real position of a retail trader in the big sheme of things ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #140,111
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:21pm Apr 26, 2016 3:21pm
Hello sisse,

IMARICH1 on Friday April 22 stated: "I see the FLIP now. And, perfect place for my STOP taking the .1290 SHORT to .1190.....still, should not have taken that trade. It would have been better to take a trade at .1344....the break out was at this top and PA came back and it acted as support for awhile....Now Resistance (FLIP)."


...well this time a big shout @IMARICH1 are you surprised that 1.134x held? why did it hold?...

No, I am not. First, there was no momentum to really break it thru that area this is the FLIP (Short Term). This is why waiting on tomorrow (FOMC) is all about (TIMING). This will bring in the NEWS flows and later actual flows. PA is currently in the CENTER of RANGE so NO trades should be taken as OUTLOOK is still NEUTRAL.

However, if one was not in the trade and wanted to this would be area to position for .134X. It would not be a bad trade to have a stop slightly above as the R:R would be in better. Closing today under .1290 tells me more. LONDON closed above .1300 and NY closed below .1300 handle. I was very tempted to take an actual cash SHORT today at .134X to help me leverage out of my bad position in EU; but, TIMING is my MAIN problem so I wait until the NEWS to see where we might go and position for it or pretend to position for it.

Have I said too much should have stopped at Hello. Lol
  • #140,112
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:25pm Apr 26, 2016 3:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Trying to convince myself to switch my account from IB over to TD Ameritrade (thinkorswim) so I've been playing with the demo.... Does the current price on chart (set to bid) and buy/sell price look suspicious to you? Ignore all the stops/buys/etc. Getting used to the platform order system. Putting in a trouble call to the tos guys..... switching between commission and non-commission still has the issue but different prices from the commission....(about 2 pips different). WTF? {image}
apparently demo vs real shows two different prices. Charts are real price- everything else via demo is not

so much for accurate demo'ing
  • #140,113
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:29pm Apr 26, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Trying to convince myself to switch my account from IB over to TD Ameritrade (thinkorswim) so I've been playing with the demo.... Does the current price on chart (set to bid) and buy/sell price look suspicious to you?
I'm not sure about that - but I am not the best person to ask. I don't trade off the charts. When those orders show up on charts I usually don't try to figure out what they mean, I have tabs on everything in other ways.... Notwithstanding what I just said, I do like ToS, it's all I use for charts and for options trade analysis. I don't need much, but it gives me more than enough.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,114
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:45pm Apr 26, 2016 3:45pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} why did 1.134x hold ?
... ask Imarich1
Quote
what would be the impact of a hint of a june hike be in term of flows across fx board and especially EURUSD ?

Not much of a shocker. Its pretty much on the cards on expectations meaning wouldn't be a surprise except if its a CLEAR hike call.

Quote
what does 1.122x, 1.128x and 1.134x stand for TA wise ?

1.122x nothing. 1,128x rate differentials major FA level. 1.134x was short term flip but was already cleaned today so 'nobody' is defending it any longer after today close...

Quote
who are the real movers and shakers with direct impact on certain levels ?

The is only one real mover and shakers and those are the ones who set direction no take direction. Neither you or me or 90% of the mortals will ever be in that group.

Quote
does HFT's or big banks/institutions have the upper hand and purposely go in sync with each other in term of moves short/med/long term against the mass retail traders ?

Not in a million years !!!.... believe me. What they have is better and earlier access to key information and can sit through the noise in key areas thats it...

Quote
what is the real position of a retail trader in the big shame of things ?

Who is retail? .... in simple terms you need to choose your position in the food chain. Want to edge against HFT algos in >M5/M15 and think you are going to beat them with manual trading in a bucket shop or with a MT4 whatever system...GL with that and give me a ring with the results. Want to edge against dealers and bank intraday daily flows ...want to play with the macro flows swinging in the short/mid term legs? ...well there we can talk ...but in between there are 1 million different 'retail' types ...so basically is a pointless exercise to put all in the same bag...


Quoting IMARICH1
Hello sisse, IMARICH1 on Friday April 22 stated: "I see the FLIP now. And, perfect place for my STOP taking the .1290 SHORT to .1190.....still, should not have taken that trade. It ....
V. Good ... No need for further comments ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,115
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:09pm Apr 26, 2016 4:09pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... ask Imarich1 {quote} Not much of a shocker. Its pretty much on the cards on expectations meaning wouldn't be a surprise except if its a CLEAR hike call. {quote} 1.122x nothing. 1,128x rate differentials major FA level. 1.134x was short term flip but was already cleaned today so 'nobody' is defending it any longer after today close... {quote} The is only one real mover and shakers and those are the ones who set direction no take direction. Neither you or me or 90% of the mortals will ever be in that group. {quote} Not in a million...
very good thx ... I asked those questions purposely in order to clear some confusion amongst many other things that a trader could ask/think of once he/she gets trapped in market flows and don't understand where the wind is coming from . as for the levels I hope that I get the right picture here as far as my analysis is concerned !
thx again .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #140,116
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:17pm Apr 26, 2016 4:17pm
quote} 1.122x nothing. 1,128x rate differentials major FA level. 1.134x was short term flip but was already cleaned today so 'nobody' is defending it any longer after today close...

I do not understand you say 1.1340 has been cleaned today. How do you appreciated? For me as a flip,that change the short term trend, has been defended, and the only thing that can take it off is a FOMC statement.. I am a scalper and I try to understand the swings...
Regards,
  • #140,117
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:21pm Apr 26, 2016 4:21pm
Quote
The is only one real mover and shakers and those are the ones who set direction no take direction. Neither you or me or 90% of the mortals will ever be in that group

...then let me try to join an elite brotherhood or prove that I am a descendant of rothschild or rockfeller ...in the meantime time I will stay in my little corner
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #140,118
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:25pm Apr 26, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} apparently demo vs real shows two different prices. Charts are real price- everything else via demo is not so much for accurate demo'ing
​please help, not so much the pair but is the principle right? if not then fuck, I really am scraping the barrel - time for a sleep

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post8894286
  • #140,119
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:44pm Apr 26, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting Lavanda
... I do not understand you say 1.1340 has been cleaned today. How do you appreciated? For me as a flip,that change the short term trend, has been defended, and the only thing that can take it off is a FOMC statement.. I am a scalper and I try to understand the swings... Regards,
Cleaned meaning 'real major' bid and offers has been raised. All who needed to load or clear for the spring (ECB/FED combo completes in hours) already did it. We have all the cards on the table and all markets except the FX board well under way until the summer.

The next few weeks are going to be all about FX via 2 majors currencies in play:

--> First and the most important DOLLAR is in KEY long/mid and short term decision area and as you know it will sweep all pairs and crosses when it blows the compression range. FA wise, the FED wont have anywhere to hide after tomorrow and we will enter in imminent rates mode (RMT => Rates Mode Trading ...check back post last year for reference) with a short stopover on the Brexit / risk early summer.

--> Second we have the YEN in play with the BOJ straight after the FED. The yen is like usual caught between the very vocal BOJ and the hash and sad state of the Japanese economy. Expect major short circuits on the BOJ trying to stop the stampede for a test 100.xx. However, Brexit / 'Sell in May' will trigger 'risk mode' trading across the board making the YEN one of the most attractive currencies for trading in the upcoming weeks ...

Basically, YEN and DOLLAR could ignite as early as this week so nobody serious/smart/large hands will be caught/playing in the middle of a tiny compression range when we already been there for nearly a month and with hours away from the FED....

For today's move well that is for a different conversation but is a very simple flow. Check the previous 2 exercises in the thread this month both has been exactly the same flows the day before the mover and shaker of the week (and both nearly to the tick flows as today) ....try to look back and check the backposts ...you may have your Eureka moment !!!... GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,120
  • Apr 26, 2016 5:34pm Apr 26, 2016 5:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} YEN and DOLLAR could ignite as early as this week so nobody serious/smart/large hands will be caught/playing in the middle of a tiny compression range when we already been there for nearly a month and with hours away from the FED
do or die for US equities now & AAPL crashing on a dismal ER could be the harbinger. The Market's own strumpet, Janet Yellen, need only say a single bearish syllable and the house of cards will fall, and sell in May go away will rule the day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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