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AUD/USD

  • #96,701
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:15am Apr 25, 2016 6:15am
0.7695 - 0.7721 all day long, zzzzzzzz

I'm just scalping this range.
  • #96,702
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:21am Apr 25, 2016 6:21am
Quoting ell3
{quote} No thanks, according to my charts the main uptrend line is still intact. I don't wanna get caught short if the aud corrects upward after last Friday's drop. As for the trend, FOMC may change things and that's what you call a fundamental factor which could either turn this uptrend into a down one causing it to break the uptrend support or push it higher. So as far as I'm concerned I've decided I will only sell if the fed turns hawkish and pushes this beneath that trend line., it's only a question of how deep this will go Pre-fomc but so far...
looks fair, i was just kidding of course, each of us play our own way :-) I'm still holding my shorts from last week tough, always waiting
  • #96,703
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:23am Apr 25, 2016 6:23am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} After reading the sentence above i will rest my case. If you are doing well using these indicators then by all means continue with what you are doing. The reason i asked about back testing the strategy on the lower TFs is because the only main difference between the lower TF and higer TF is the time interval. Ps: not all indicators are lagging.........
I believe there is no particular indicator design/programmed for either long/short time frames. Any indicators can be used in all timeframes. If you know how to trade shorter timeframe you can backtest Bollinger Band with it.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -3.4%
  • #96,704
  • Apr 25, 2016 7:23am Apr 25, 2016 7:23am
out of topic (kind of).


i've started buying usdcad, as we can see in the chart below, cadusd (usdcad reversed) and audusd tend to be very close in their movements, and in the past few trading days, audusd went down while cadusd didn't, so.. i just bought usdcad (like, sell cadusd).

i wonder if this make sense (time will tell)
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  • #96,705
  • Apr 25, 2016 7:32am Apr 25, 2016 7:32am
Hi all, long time not posting anything. very occupied with work and barely have time to trade. Anyhow this is my post for today
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  • #96,706
  • Apr 25, 2016 9:15am Apr 25, 2016 9:15am
Stick to what you have success with until you can see where you can improve on it.

KP

Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} All indicators are lagging and do fail and yet seasoned traders still use them. I repeat, all strategies do fail. Sometimes strong bullish/bearish move/setup do fail. Your question about my SL.My SL is over 400 pips away from current price. I got in on the 3rd, March. You can check it yourself and am 350 pips. I have shared about Gold and AUDUSD on this thread. I have not tried shorter time frames and I don't trade them. I use daily,weekly & monthly TFs
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #96,707
  • Apr 25, 2016 9:29am Apr 25, 2016 9:29am
Anyone?
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  • #96,708
  • Apr 25, 2016 9:38am Apr 25, 2016 9:38am
Quoting Forexgain
Anyone? {image}
looks like a short term bottom to me..
looking to buy short term.
preferably when stoch is low and after more candles are closed red and one closed green.

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i still have this possible cypher.

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  • #96,709
  • Apr 25, 2016 9:47am Apr 25, 2016 9:47am
Quoting KeenPips
Stick to what you have success with until you can see where you can improve on it. KP {quote}

The problem is has he back tested the strategy on lower TFs?
If no, then how does he know it even work?
  • #96,710
  • Apr 25, 2016 9:54am Apr 25, 2016 9:54am
Nothing much to see......... looking at following top out numbers and range.

For AU, 7860 to 7960.
For GU, around 14600.

No idea how good are these numbers...... guess we will know very soon.
  • #96,711
  • Apr 25, 2016 10:03am Apr 25, 2016 10:03am
I'm a learner. A top-down approach is key imho. Often time, newbies like me, tend to look for quick results when what we need is to be patient and test our system for a while.

Quoting 10cents
{quote} The problem is has he back tested the strategy on lower TFs? If no, then how does he know it even work?
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #96,712
  • Apr 25, 2016 11:49am Apr 25, 2016 11:49am
great. How annoying. We've got a "no change". With just 4 hours to go and thin liquidity the aud is where it started today. It was looking good to go at least one level up into the 773xs but failed multiple times.
  • #96,713
  • Apr 25, 2016 12:34pm Apr 25, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting ell3
great. How annoying. We've got a "no change". With just 4 hours to go and thin liquidity the aud is where it started today. It was looking good to go at least one level up into the 773xs but failed multiple times.
Today is ANZAC ( Australia and New Zealand Army Corps ) day. Its a banking holiday in Australia. ANZAC day is a day of rememberance to commemorate All Australians and New Zealadans who have served in wars, peace keeping missions and conflicts and all those who have made contributions and sufferings during the period. I hope this helps to answer the low volatility you talk about.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -3.4%
  • #96,714
  • Apr 25, 2016 11:26pm Apr 25, 2016 11:26pm
Quoting 10cents
{quote} PA seems to be at a important stage now....... if the target at 7850 is correct then my plot of the support is 20-30 pips off. If the price doesn't consolidate around this current 7710 - 7750 level....... then the target at 7850 may be void......
That level 78.5 is pretty much at my level from a fib starting on the 18/06/2015 on a daily chart , I have been predicting a commodity rise with Aussie heading towards 80 cents on a weekly step cycle 3 weeks up one week down ( and it has followed this trend since january after a different step like pattern in august 2015 to jan 2016), this week i wouldn't worry even if it went to 76 cents as the current trend seems to build momentum via letting the au dollar slide to lows just above the last significant low, which i would say is 75.3 something cents. Although in thinking about this the last trend from august 2015 to jan never reached the top so maybe 78.5 is the top and this is the end of this pattern hard to tell with fundamentals still on the murky side, well I should know after this week as based off the cycle it should go up this week. My last to significant levels are 78.5 and 81.5 with warning bells at 76.8 75.9 and id be really unsure if it went to 75.3.
  • #96,715
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:05am Apr 26, 2016 3:05am
Quoting exofabulous
{quote} That level 78.5 is pretty much at my level from a fib starting on the 18/06/2015 on a daily chart , I have been predicting a commodity rise with Aussie heading towards 80 cents on a weekly step cycle 3 weeks up one week down ( and it has followed this trend since january after a different step like pattern in august 2015 to jan 2016), this week i wouldn't worry even if it went to 76 cents as the current trend seems to build momentum via letting the au dollar slide to lows just above the last significant low, which i would say is 75.3 something...
If you have caught this move 2 weeks back then it is a great one, must be worth a lot of green pips now.
I guess USD will begin to strength again soon, when people focus back to fundamentals as we get near to the resistance levels.

Watching the various USD pairs. Still early days but i am again seeing signs that GU have room for up move above 1.46....... may be possible that the pair will grab a print very close to 1.48. If that's the case then AU will probably see a print very close to 0.800. Like a few other members like Skyrek pointed out earlier, 0.8 may be the top out level instead of 0.785.

Of course we still need to consider the downside, and for me it is current area of 7710 - 7750, if we get below this level with heavy volume then i need to recalculate the levels again. It can still test the level of 0.769x again As it stands the pairs seems very much like heading to 0.8 or near to that. We should know by tomorrow if we get this final FOMC push for the big bears to dump.
  • #96,716
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:30am Apr 26, 2016 3:30am
Quoting SkyrEk
AU in a small range today due to ANZAC day. Well, wait for London and US markets to open first. It will be too premature to have a bias as of now. Hence, i will think that if .7700 region is defended, the next move will be the resumption of the uptrend. Uptrend line still intact (atm)

Very nice 1hr bullish candle. Full of energy from the bulls. Finally the slow tight range is broken.
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  • #96,717
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:35am Apr 26, 2016 3:35am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} If you have caught this move 2 weeks back then it is a great one, must be worth a lot of green pips now. I guess USD will begin to strength again soon, when people focus back to fundamentals as we get near to the resistance levels. Watching the various USD pairs. Still early days but i am again seeing signs that GU have room for up move above 1.46....... may be possible that the pair will grab a print very close to 1.48. If that's the case then AU will probably see a print very close to 0.800. Like a few other members like Skyrek pointed...

.80 is approx the weekly and monthly downtrend line. Hence, i will place heavier weightage at that levels, i mean it can even go higher than 0.80. No one really knows, i just have to trade according to my plan and get out at a profit. When prices manage to surpass .7850, it will give me even more confidence of prices going towards .80 psychological level.

I know there are many traders (retail) trying to catch a top and trying to short at every single rally, but finding the top and shorting at the 'assumed' top may blow your account. Been there, done that. Just ride the trend till its not. A reversal will come, have patience, when it comes, you will naturally notice it if you have been trading for a couple of years. Usually, a reversal will come in a form of a doji (daily, weekly, monthly candle) or a super bearish candle at a significant resistance level. There is really no written rule or holy grail to this, just trade accordingly to what PA shows.
  • #96,718
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:45am Apr 26, 2016 3:45am
this may be a good place to sell (or add sells)
  • #96,719
  • Apr 26, 2016 3:52am Apr 26, 2016 3:52am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} I know there are many traders (retail) trying to catch a top and trying to short at every single rally, but finding the top and shorting at the 'assumed' top may blow your account. Been there, done that. Just ride the trend till its not. A reversal will come, have patience, when it comes, you will naturally notice it if you have been trading for a couple of years. Usually, a reversal will come in a form of a doji (daily, weekly, monthly candle) or a super bearish candle at a significant resistance level. There is really no written rule or...
Very good advice!
  • #96,720
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:12am Apr 26, 2016 4:12am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} .80 is approx the weekly and monthly downtrend line. Hence, i will place heavier weightage at that levels, i mean it can even go higher than 0.80. No one really knows, i just have to trade according to my plan and get out at a profit. When prices manage to surpass .7850, it will give me even more confidence of prices going towards .80 psychological level. I know there are many traders (retail) trying to catch a top and trying to short at every single rally, but finding the top and shorting at the 'assumed' top may blow your account.

Is the weekly suggesting anything more? To be honest i seldom use anything more than the daily chart or trend lines.
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