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  • #96,681
  • Apr 24, 2016 9:44pm Apr 24, 2016 9:44pm
multiple mini bottoms forming at 7690. Buyers seem to be defending that level, good idea to watch if it holds and at least makes a correction up of that quick move down from 7834. Let the Europe markets lead the way!
  • #96,682
  • Apr 24, 2016 10:37pm Apr 24, 2016 10:37pm
Nothing much has changed in my opinion, AU still needs a print above 7850 and GU needs a print above 14550.
Both calculations plotted from the bounce off lows in early April.
  • #96,683
  • Apr 24, 2016 10:43pm Apr 24, 2016 10:43pm
AU in a small range today due to ANZAC day. Well, wait for London and US markets to open first. It will be too premature to have a bias as of now.

Hence, i will think that if .7700 region is defended, the next move will be the resumption of the uptrend. Uptrend line still intact (atm)
  • #96,684
  • Apr 24, 2016 10:51pm Apr 24, 2016 10:51pm
Quoting SkyrEk
AU in a small range today due to ANZAC day. Well, wait for London and US markets to open first. It will be too premature to have a bias as of now. Hence, i will think that if .7700 region is defended, the next move will be the resumption of the uptrend. Uptrend line still intact (atm)

I do think we have a support here too. Shorting into supports is just risky. Most times even if the direction is correct, it bounces back to test the support again at least once.

Actually the prices i have got for the support zone is 7750 - 7708, and i will consider the target at 7850 void if we see big volume sell down here.
  • #96,685
  • Apr 25, 2016 12:13am Apr 25, 2016 12:13am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I do think we have a support here too. Shorting into supports is just risky. Most times even if the direction is correct, it bounces back to test the support again at least once. Actually the prices i have got for the support zone is 7750 - 7708, and i will consider the target at 7850 void if we see big volume sell down here.

Nice, as long one has a trading plan, it's sufficient regardless whether we are bulls and bears
  • #96,686
  • Apr 25, 2016 3:48am Apr 25, 2016 3:48am
bearish week ahead?
  • #96,687
  • Apr 25, 2016 3:51am Apr 25, 2016 3:51am
Quoting tunera
bearish week ahead?
Too early to call imo
  • #96,688
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:10am Apr 25, 2016 4:10am
yeah I tried long from 7700..it did the climb to the 200hma, failed, tried again then in a matter of minutes drew back down to 769x. Got out with practically nothing.
  • #96,689
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:18am Apr 25, 2016 4:18am
Quoting ell3
yeah I tried long from 7700..it did the climb to the 200hma, failed, tried again then in a matter of minutes drew back down to 769x. Got out with practically nothing.
why don't you sell pal?

it's more fun in the bears land
  • #96,690
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:21am Apr 25, 2016 4:21am
This will most likely form consolidation. There is already a strong long setup on monthly. As you may already know, it takes longer time to obey on daily. For those who entered early may not fear their SL, before you decide to close if the setup fails. Just a tip. I still have my three open positions, with SL still far
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #96,691
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:32am Apr 25, 2016 4:32am
Quoting 9jatrader
This will most likely form consolidation. There is already a strong long setup on monthly. As you may already know, it takes longer time to obey on daily. For those who entered early may not fear their SL, before you decide to close if the setup fails. Just a tip. I still have my three open positions, with SL still far

I'm curious, how wide do you set your stops based on monthly charts? 1000 pips or more? Hard to imagine because even a 100 pips stop is barely enough buffer on a daily chart.

Last i checked the monthly, some trends took like 8 or 10 years to hit the support/resistance levels Lol.
  • #96,692
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:42am Apr 25, 2016 4:42am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I'm curious, how wide do you set your stops based on monthly charts? 1000 pips or more? Hard to imagine because even a 100 pips stop is barely enough buffer on a daily chart. Last i checked the monthly, some trends took like 8 or 10 years to hit the support/resistance levels Lol.
isn't it? maybe not for something like USD/TRY ZAR etc but for this its more than enough
  • #96,693
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:53am Apr 25, 2016 4:53am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I'm curious, how wide do you set your stops based on monthly charts? 1000 pips or more? Hard to imagine because even a 100 pips stop is barely enough buffer on a daily chart. Last i checked the monthly, some trends took like 8 or 10 years to hit the support/resistance levels Lol.
I uderstand your question. When last weekly or monthly forms good setup, I look for entery point on daily either Bollinger Upper Band or when candle closes above Bollinger Middle Band. When market wants to trend it first and foremost close above middle band, if it will work it closes above upper band( for uptrend ); for downtrend the opposite - it crosses Bollinger Middle Band and it also closes below lower band ( for uptrend ); Know that all strategies do fail. My SL was triggered at first with strong beraish candle. I got in again, because of weekly/monthly. I hope this helps. My SL always below lower price of the last candle(uptrend) and little above higher price of the previous candle (downtrend)
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
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  • #96,694
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:56am Apr 25, 2016 4:56am
Quoting Don96
{quote} isn't it? maybe not for something like USD/TRY ZAR etc but for this its more than enough

It is common for prices to fluctuate up and down around a support or resistance level by 100 - 200 pips on the daily. I won't dare say 100 pips is more than enough.
Traders on daily charts normally spot trends that extend 500 pips or even more.

I would rather do away with stops when trading these ultra large TFs. Instead keep the position very small and close the position manually if something is wrong. The idea is to keep a comfortable size position because any wrong move on the daily can be very damaging on the account.
  • #96,695
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:59am Apr 25, 2016 4:59am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} It is common for prices to fluctuate up and down around a support or resistance level by 100 - 200 pips on the daily. I won't dare say 100 pips is more than enough. Traders on daily charts normally spot trends that extend 500 pips or even more. I would rather do away with stops when trading these ultra large TFs. Instead keep the position very small and close the position manually if something is wrong. The idea is to keep a comfortable size position because any wrong move on the daily can be very damaging on the account.
hmm well each to their own. I trade daily and don't use 100p stops
  • #96,696
  • Apr 25, 2016 5:04am Apr 25, 2016 5:04am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} I uderstand your question. When last weekly or monthly forms good setup, I look for entery point on daily either Bollinger Upper Band or when candle closes above Bollinger Middle Band. When market wants to trend it first and foremost close above middle band, if it will work it closes above upper band( for uptrend ); for downtrend the opposite - it crosses Bollinger Middle Band and it also closes below lower band ( for uptrend ); Know that all strategies do fail. My SL was triggered at first with strong beraish candle. I got in again, because...

This sounds like something that can be back tested. Have you run this strategy over the lower TFs?

I haven't used most these indicators extensively, but i gather that bollinger is quite a lagging tool isn't it?
  • #96,697
  • Apr 25, 2016 5:08am Apr 25, 2016 5:08am
Quoting Don96
{quote} hmm well each to their own. I trade daily and don't use 100p stops

yep different people different positions ok sorry strokes.

just keep doing whatever it works for you and rake in the green pips
  • #96,698
  • Apr 25, 2016 5:28am Apr 25, 2016 5:28am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} This sounds like something that can be back tested. Have you run this strategy over the lower TFs? I haven't used most these indicators extensively, but i gather that bollinger is quite a lagging tool isn't it?
All indicators are lagging and do fail and yet seasoned traders still use them. I repeat, all strategies do fail. Sometimes strong bullish/bearish move/setup do fail. Your question about my SL.My SL is over 400 pips away from current price. I got in on the 3rd, March. You can check it yourself and am 350 pips. I have shared about Gold and AUDUSD on this thread. I have not tried shorter time frames and I don't trade them. I use daily,weekly & monthly TFs
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -0.5%
  • #96,699
  • Apr 25, 2016 5:43am Apr 25, 2016 5:43am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} All indicators are lagging and do fail and yet seasoned traders still use them.

After reading the sentence above i will rest my case. If you are doing well using these indicators then by all means continue with what you are doing.

The reason i asked about back testing the strategy on the lower TFs is because the only main difference between the lower TF and higer TF is the time interval.

Ps: not all indicators are lagging.........
  • #96,700
  • Apr 25, 2016 5:45am Apr 25, 2016 5:45am
Quoting tunera
{quote} why don't you sell pal? it's more fun in the bears land
No thanks, according to my charts the main uptrend line is still intact. I don't wanna get caught short if the aud corrects upward after last Friday's drop.
As for the trend, FOMC may change things and that's what you call a fundamental factor which could either turn this uptrend into a down one causing it to break the uptrend support or push it higher. So as far as I'm concerned I've decided I will only sell if the fed turns hawkish and pushes this beneath that trend line., it's only a question of how deep this will go Pre-fomc but so far it looks like it's consolidating and on hold at this level...so no point going long again (unless I get itchy to scalp a few pips!)
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