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$ Millionaire Traders Golden Price Mining

  • #421
  • Apr 22, 2016 1:51am Apr 22, 2016 1:51am
GBP NZD going short over strong HTF reversal area don't make much sense to me.
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  • #422
  • Edited 2:58am Apr 22, 2016 2:21am | Edited 2:58am
Quoting asgcorp
GBP NZD going short over strong HTF reversal area don't make much sense to me. {image}
I guess that depends on your time frame. I'm only looking for 200 pips before the RBNZ rate decision, which is peanuts with this pair.

I'm still using the 34EMA wave, or as Raghee Horner calls it, the "Dave Wave" as my model for determining when a trend is broken. My model says the daily downtrend is still intact until the wave is clearly broken with a daily close above. As it stands, price has temporarily stalled exactly at the 34EMA close. In addition, a 500 pip bullish divergence has played out to the 61.8FIB from the previous high. Hopefully, I will get at least a 50 pip bounce and a chance to move my SL to BE and a free run at the 200 pips.

Best trading to you. Have a nice weekend too.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #423
  • Apr 22, 2016 2:51am Apr 22, 2016 2:51am
Quoting PayTheLimit
interesting level in CADJPY coming up again... {image}
CHFJPY 112.00 and 109.00
Thanks for tipping off, I looked into chfjpy too and it's also at the major key level at 112.00 which is coming from 2013.
There were nice bounces from it in Mar and this week already. If it breaks this level I would expect some retrace from 109.00 which is Fib-50 and nice looking golden candidate.
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  • #424
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:01am Apr 22, 2016 3:01am
Quoting Hpt
GBPJPY traders what do you think about this level ? {image} or better this one {image} with the first one I had a good scalp HPT
I might take the chance for a short at 158.80 looking for the R to bring about 100 pips.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #425
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:09am Apr 22, 2016 3:09am
Quoting Hpt
{quote} GBPNZD Hi expo33 my longer view {image}
Hi Hpt.

Just curious is you ever watched any live hockey. My younger brother retired a few years ago after spending 20 years over seas playing. The last 14 years he played in Austria, 12 of them in Linz and the final 2 in Innsbrook. He and his wife and daughter absolutely loved Austria!
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #426
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:46am Apr 22, 2016 4:46am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I guess that depends on your time frame. I'm only looking for 200 pips before the RBNZ rate decision, which is peanuts with this pair. I'm still using the 34EMA wave, or as Raghee Horner calls it, the "Dave Wave" as my model for determining when a trend is broken. My model says the daily downtrend is still intact until the wave is clearly broken with a daily close above. As it stands, price has temporarily stalled exactly at the 34EMA close. In addition, a 500 pip bullish divergence has played out to the 61.8FIB from the previous high. Hopefully,...
Long Long Long for mine
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Phenomenal Return This Year: na
  • #427
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:58am Apr 22, 2016 4:58am
expo33 I hope you didn't really short GNZ. )))
  • #428
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:07am Apr 22, 2016 6:07am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Yes it is very nice when it happens . New opportunity for short now at fib 38.2 level last leg 4H . Nice confluence with triple bottom from April . {image}


Didn't take it but an excellent, sharp level. Good mining, Earleone!

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  • #429
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:17am Apr 22, 2016 6:17am
Quoting Earleone
USDCHF Fib 50 level high march, low april is worth paying attention too also already overbougth on my bands. {image}

Keeping my target for short entry slightly higher to account for the lows in that Feb/March range. I would like to see that rising wedge take a bit more form before deciding on entry.

Either way, not sure it will happen this week anyway.

Q

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  • #430
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:50am Apr 22, 2016 6:50am
Quoting factlover
{quote} EURJPY: 125.00 yen too. GL here looks good. This one is at Fib-50, EMA-200, and super round number too. But we saw bounce from it yesterday already - what do you think, Quinton? Should we expect another bounce from a good golden level? {image}
Didn't take it. The action is around the 125.00 area, but if you take low of that April 5th range into account, it is slightly higher and price is reacting accordingly to it.
As you mentioned, price already got close to that region and the fact that it's Friday means we have less time to wait for price to make a move. In addition, one of the 200 MAs that acted as resistance is starting to act as support, which could push price back into the level multiple times. This translates to more complex posiiton management for which there is little time this close to the weekend.

Q

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  • #431
  • Apr 22, 2016 7:12am Apr 22, 2016 7:12am
Quoting Expo33
GBP/NZD if you can stomach the spread {image}


The PA on that recent move is parabolic in nature which means that while the move is sure to end, the last move up is particularly strong. This means that entry targets should be set esp. conservative, if at all. That indicator won't tell you that. only pure PA. Then again, it does depend a lot your SL and how long you intend to hold.

I don't monitor this pair so I missed the short in the beginning of April. That one was a perfect example of a short from a golden level. A nice, compact collection of short-term lows deeply set within a larger range always beats out a few lows at a less advantageous price.

Will revisit early next week.

Q

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  • #432
  • Apr 22, 2016 7:28am Apr 22, 2016 7:28am
Short with tight SL on USD/JPY @ 111.40. Not sure if I posted this one before. Perfect example of two great levels but differing states of PA. The lower level was not bad, but look at how aggressively PA is behaving. Lot's of higher lows right before it pushed through it.

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  • #433
  • Apr 22, 2016 7:58am Apr 22, 2016 7:58am
Quoting Quinton
Short with tight SL on USD/JPY @ 111.40. Not sure if I posted this one before. Perfect example of two great levels but differing states of PA. The lower level was not bad, but look at how aggressively PA is behaving. Lot's of higher lows right before it pushed through it. {image}

SL hit -10 pips. It's Friday.

Q
  • #434
  • Apr 23, 2016 6:01am Apr 23, 2016 6:01am
Quoting Quinton
{quote} Overall I agree with the zone. The direction is obviously up. But it is not pure trending action we are dealing with here. Those retracements are so deep that the long-term PA could be described as a mix of trending and ranging. So I will add the more conservative level here: long @ .6818 + .50 fib The 200 MAs could support either your higher zone or my level, depending on how quickly price makes it down (if it does). Q {image}
NZDUSD: .6820 - .6830 area - it's in that area which you expected, Quinton. So it looks like we may expect a bounce from here. and then maybe some ranging as I see daily EMA50 and EMA200 are coming to that area too.
I don't understand why did you draw your Fib from mid-March low, is it a fitting or you see a good reason for that?
On my chart the Fib is drawn from last daily leg down from Apr 2015 not taking into account the Aug spike
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  • #435
  • Edited 8:53am Apr 23, 2016 8:43am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting factlover
{quote} NZDUSD: .6820 - .6830 area - it's in that area which you expected, Quinton. So it looks like we may expect a bounce from here. and then maybe some ranging as I see daily EMA50 and EMA200 are coming to that area too. I don't understand why did you draw your Fib from mid-March low, is it a fitting or you see a good reason for that? On my chart the Fib is drawn from last daily leg down from Apr 2015 not taking into account the Aug spike {image}
I can not answer for Quinton. But I looked at my chart now and can tell that I used that same level mid March for my fibs too. It is an markant swing low standing out from the others and I think it is used by many traders. I dont use a more recent swing low/high on 4H tf like this that is close to an other markant swing low/high then I try to use the markant swing / high / low as done here or I will use the absolutely last swing High/low. When I am in doubt I try the different swings to see which ones fibs that is respected recently and stick to that one for my fibs.

For this specific fib you can see that it was respected as fibs for the mid march low / end march high. when it came to what was fib 50 4th and 7th of april it bounced off. So mid March swing low is absolutely an level that is in use.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #436
  • Apr 23, 2016 9:13am Apr 23, 2016 9:13am
interesting really
  • #437
  • Apr 23, 2016 9:47am Apr 23, 2016 9:47am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I can not answer for Quinton. But I looked at my chart now and can tell that I used that same level mid March for my fibs too. It is an markant swing low standing out from the others and I think it is used by many traders. I dont use a more recent swing low/high on 4H tf like this that is close to an other markant swing low/high then I try to use the markant swing / high / low as done here or I will use the absolutely last swing High/low. When I am in doubt I try the different swings to see which ones fibs that is respected recently and...
I agree with you
I mentioned a few posts back that I first used this fibo (my reference was the inner trend line) only to discarded it but we can see clearly all the fibo's levels were respected
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  • #438
  • Edited 10:41am Apr 23, 2016 10:08am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} I agree with you I mentioned a few posts back that I first used this fibo (my reference was the inner trend line) only to discarded it but we can see clearly all the fibo's levels were respected {image}
I saw the fib 50 ( 38.2) and the 23.6 extension. As in attached chart. The fib 23.6 ext is now the 0 Fib. Also if you measure from top now the fib 50 line will line up where fib 38.2 is on this attached chart so more confluence
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #439
  • Apr 23, 2016 10:31am Apr 23, 2016 10:31am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I saw the fib 50 and the 23.6 extension. As in attached chart. The fib 23.6 ext is now the 0 Fib. Also if you measure from top now the fib 50 line will line up where fib 38.2 is on this attached chart so more confluence {image}
Nice one
I can't get fibo extensions right so I go with stdDev deviations and S/R levels
  • #440
  • Apr 23, 2016 11:22am Apr 23, 2016 11:22am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Nice one I can't get fibo extensions right so I go with stdDev deviations and S/R levels
I hope this is not completely off topic Quinton in that case give me an message .

I look and use some variants of ATR and STD dev to see oversold/bought. But has recently started to look in to ratios and as you see on attached chart. NZDUSD is almost to the pip for each leg. ( first leg is copied and pasted in for the 2 next legs) It very often comes in to confluence with fib ext 123.6 and 127.2
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