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Trading Made Simple

  • #68,541
  • Apr 21, 2016 12:30am Apr 21, 2016 12:30am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURUSD Week 16 April 20 trade idea conclusion. I posted that trade idea yesterday, and here is what we learn and why it good to have a Plan A and a Plan B. {image} True or False: All Master Candle[3] MC[3] are also are Darvas Box High-Low, but not all, Darvas Box High-Low are MC[3]? True or False?
Hello, Emm!

I am not an expert on Darvas Boxes, but from what I understand, your statement is 100% true.
  • #68,542
  • Apr 21, 2016 12:38am Apr 21, 2016 12:38am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURUSD Week 16 April 20 trade idea conclusion. I posted that trade idea yesterday, and here is what we learn and why it good to have a Plan A and a Plan B. {image} True or False: All Master Candle[3] MC[3] are also are Darvas Box High-Low, but not all, Darvas Box High-Low are MC[3]? True or False?
But even if it closed above, could we have just bought the EU? Based on W1 analysis, we had an evening star pattern formed at previous resistance, so we should only be looking to sell this week on H4 swings, correct?
  • #68,543
  • Apr 21, 2016 12:59am Apr 21, 2016 12:59am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURUSD Week 16 April 20 trade idea conclusion. I posted that trade idea yesterday, and here is what we learn and why it good to have a Plan A and a Plan B. {image} True or False: All Master Candle[3] MC[3] are also are Darvas Box High-Low, but not all, Darvas Box High-Low are MC[3]? True or False?
TRUE

All MC have successive candles that trade within its range, forming a consolidation area, creating Darvas Box.
In a Darvas Box, candles can close and open outside of each others range. So not all Darvas Box High-Low are MC's.
  • #68,544
  • Edited 2:29am Apr 21, 2016 2:12am | Edited 2:29am
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  • #68,545
  • Apr 21, 2016 2:49am Apr 21, 2016 2:49am
Quoting emmanuel7788
An example using Darvas Box High-Low; {image} Know it, learn it, and train your eyes to see it. And you will have another arsenal to your trading armoury and look for the best trade setups.
I see. It makes sense. Thanks, Emm!
  • #68,546
  • Apr 21, 2016 3:34am Apr 21, 2016 3:34am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} I see. It makes sense. Thanks, Emm!

Well, I am glad that all these make sense.
I am sure Big E knew all these but he did not use proper names to describe those PA candles what he saw on his charts.

He simply taught us these:

<quote post#647>
How close am I to the previous high or lo

Am I in an uptrend or downtrend.. short & long term...

Am I in or close to a consolidation area

Are the previous candles small...

Look at the candles on the last reversal... big, little, what
<unquote>
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,547
  • Apr 21, 2016 3:38am Apr 21, 2016 3:38am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} But even if it closed above, could we have just bought the EU? Based on W1 analysis, we had an evening star pattern formed at previous resistance, so we should only be looking to sell this week on H4 swings, correct?

I did my BPP in week 12 and merely update as each new week emerges.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post8825210.

You are right about that Weekly pattern.
But what I see is after the MN broke that range, and Weekly is sideways but to the upside... rising channel. I will avoid any sell 4H swing. I favour a 4H swing in a rising channel.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,548
  • Apr 21, 2016 4:12am Apr 21, 2016 4:12am
EU short
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  • #68,549
  • Apr 21, 2016 4:41am Apr 21, 2016 4:41am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} I did my BPP in week 12 and merely update as each new week emerges. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post8825210. You are right about that Weekly pattern. But what I see is after the MN broke that range, and Weekly is sideways but to the upside... rising channel. I will avoid any sell 4H swing. I favour a 4H swing in a rising channel.
Reading the PDF in that link I noticed that you talk about the D1 ECB WRB. You point out that on D1, we had a break and close above the high of the WRB. Somehow, I thought once we get a WRB, we do not trade the the break of WRB on the same TF, but we switch to LTF and look for breaks. Did you use this rule in the past, or am I just confusing and mixing the WRB rules?

Anyway, here is my EC trade of this week, involving a WRB--->W1 WRB, which was also the D1 WRB at the same time:
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The low of it was broken with the D1 candle close, which was also the H4 candle close. I took it on H4, but it is the same as taking it on D1, since the H4 candle had the same closing hour as the D1 candle. Since we are sitting at the low of a new WRB (H4 WRB this time),I decided to exit manually, although my initial TP was bigger. It could break, or it could bounce back up. I preferred not to risk and better to take 95 pips.
  • #68,550
  • Apr 21, 2016 4:41am Apr 21, 2016 4:41am
Quoting leescofield
EU short {image}

there is euro bid rate in 2 hours.
your small SL wont survive the first spike to 1.1315 to 1.136
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,551
  • Apr 21, 2016 4:52am Apr 21, 2016 4:52am
Only 45 pips on AU, H4, long, but they are well received. I decided to close it manually, upon seeing that PA was struggling at MN resistance.
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  • #68,552
  • Edited 5:33am Apr 21, 2016 5:20am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Reading the PDF in that link I noticed that you talk about the D1 ECB WRB. You point out that on D1, we had a break and close above the high of the WRB. Somehow, I thought once we get a WRB, we do not trade the the break of WRB on the same TF, but we switch to LTF and look for breaks. Did you use this rule in the past, or am I just confusing and mixing the WRB rules? Anyway, here is my EC trade of this week, involving a WRB--->W1 WRB, which was also the D1 WRB at the same time: {image} The low of it was broken with the D1 candle close, which...

the WRB trading rule applies all the time that we do not trade when the market is ranging inside the WRB High-Low.
That ECN Mar 10 D1 candle was an exception~ 400pips candle.
That ECB Day candle in that week also close that Week with a very good setup for buy.
Mar 16 was D1 breakout candle of the ECB WRB High.
Notice that MN Range High - 1.1239.

Edit: add chart below.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,553
  • Edited 1:03pm Apr 21, 2016 10:44am | Edited 1:03pm
Hello everyone,

My first TMS trade.

Entry errors I now notice after trade:
1. TDI just entered the VB; possible consolidation
2. Entered prior to candle close outside PAC (would not have mattered in this case)

I really want to learn this system, but for me I need to actually do it and make mistakes to learn, and go back, analyzing and study relevant information. If this makes sense?! As opposed to studying like crazy and hit the ground running.

I would appreciate any observations as to why my entry wasn't correct?

EDIT: I just noticed...I'M officially a FULL member now!! Thank you FF!!
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  • #68,554
  • Apr 21, 2016 5:16pm Apr 21, 2016 5:16pm
Hi emmanuel,

regarding darvas box theory which books and reading materials do you personally reccomend?
I notice there are many new modern versions of darvas box theory, and tbh im not really sure the original darvas box theory can be applied to forex as it seems only applicable to stocks in the book [atleast i get that impression]
is there a modern version you reccomend?
  • #68,555
  • Apr 21, 2016 5:34pm Apr 21, 2016 5:34pm
Quoting TibetSun
Hello everyone, My first TMS trade. Entry errors I now notice after trade: 1. TDI just entered the VB; possible consolidation 2. Entered prior to candle close outside PAC (would not have mattered in this case) I really want to learn this system, but for me I need to actually do it and make mistakes to learn, and go back, analyzing and study relevant information. If this makes sense?! As opposed to studying like crazy and hit the ground running. I would appreciate any observations as to why my entry wasn't correct? EDIT: I just noticed...I'M officially...
Hi,

First, you are now full member by FF Admin, Usually FF Admin will vet you first few posts before your posts are shown for public viewing. After 3 post, the vetting is no longer necessary and your post will appear immediately as you post them. No delay..

Your H4 trade setup is good. But yesterday were several key data release and events. Sop we should expect some market volatility.

With Single Entry / Single Exit trades, you can either do it 'set and forget' and let the market decided.

However, if you are managing manually and knowing of the new impact, you can consider moving you single exit id different ways. See my comment on your chart below.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TibetSun EURUSD H4 trade management.png Size: 413 KB


Learning from yesterday's market condition, we know that EU was trading in the range of the Day WRB.
With that setup Apr 20 Bearish Engulfing Bar candle, many traders will have gone short. Their SL would be 2-day look back, which is the high of the previous 2 days or above the Day WRB High. All got taken out by the volatility lat night.
My technical guess was a spike to 1.136 but it went much higher than that.

Where would have been a 'safe' SL?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,556
  • Apr 21, 2016 5:41pm Apr 21, 2016 5:41pm
Emm, what did E mean when he wrote "Look at the candles on the last reversal... big, little, what." I know he didn't count or trade small candles but I still haven't understood that line. I haven't yet finished all the Chris Harris Stochastics posts yet...

And just for what it's worth it seems like Darva's box could be a system by itself.
  • #68,557
  • Apr 21, 2016 5:46pm Apr 21, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting kain775
Hi emmanuel, regarding darvas box theory which books and reading materials do you personally reccomend? I notice there are many new modern versions of darvas box theory, and tbh im not really sure the original darvas box theory can be applied to forex as it seems only applicable to stocks in the book [atleast i get that impression] is there a modern version you reccomend?

There is nothing magical about the Darvas Box, nor does it limit itself strictly to stocks, futures, etc. If there is price actions, and it's consolidating, then you can apply the Darvas Box. All a Darvas box does, is show us recent S/R areas (as Mr. Emmanuel previously stated). These areas can span hours, days, months, etc. Nicolas Darvas mainly looked at daily and above price action.
Nicolas Darvas observed the upper and lower areas of the box acting as magnet, price oscillating within these "Boxes". until there was a breakout.
  • #68,558
  • Apr 21, 2016 5:48pm Apr 21, 2016 5:48pm
Quoting TibetSun
{quote} There is nothing magical about the Darvas Box, nor does it limit itself strictly to stocks, futures, etc. If there is price actions, and it's consolidating, then you can apply the Darvas Box. All a Darvas box does, is show us recent S/R areas (as Mr. Emmanuel previously stated). These areas can span hours, days, months, etc. Nicolas Darvas mainly looked at daily and above price action. Nicolas Darvas observed the upper and lower areas of the box acting as magnet, price oscillating within these "Boxes". until there was a breakout.
you know it well.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,559
  • Edited 6:18pm Apr 21, 2016 6:04pm | Edited 6:18pm
Quoting kain775
Hi emmanuel, regarding darvas box theory which books and reading materials do you personally reccomend? I notice there are many new modern versions of darvas box theory, and tbh im not really sure the original darvas box theory can be applied to forex as it seems only applicable to stocks in the book [atleast i get that impression] is there a modern version you reccomend?
Quoting Ygr
Emm, what did E mean when he wrote "Look at the candles on the last reversal... big, little, what." I know he didn't count or trade small candles but I still haven't understood that line. I haven't yet finished all the Chris Harris Stochastics posts yet... And just for what it's worth it seems like Darva's box could be a system by itself.

Folks,

first, let's not get all excited just because I brought up this new thing call Darvas Box again. I did mention this Darvas Box some time ago, I think more than one year and there was very little reaction. Most members wanted to keep it simple the way Big E traded in Post#1. So I let that be.

Nicholas Darvas discovered this price action market behaviour when he traded the stock market. It was named after him Darvas Box Theory. But let me get one point across here is that he did not simply trade the box breakout. There must be something else which we must see when we trade the stock market. For a trade to run , there must be volume to make the breakout happen. With too low volume, the breakout will fail often. So it work better for stock market where we can see the real volume traded each day.

In spot forex, we do not see the true volume traded per day.
So why should that Darvas Box theory work in spot forex?
If we use the Darvas Box as a trading tool, what other technical analysis to support the trade breakout?

Darvas Box Theory is not a trading system. Was never one and will never be.
Let's just study it and learn to adopt it in the way we trade TMS 5-Method and become better traders by getting the best trade setups to make money.
Keep it simple and also keep an open mind.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,560
  • Apr 21, 2016 9:06pm Apr 21, 2016 9:06pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURUSD Week 16 April 20 trade idea conclusion. I posted that trade idea yesterday, and here is what we learn and why it good to have a Plan A and a Plan B. {image} True or False: All Master Candle[3] MC[3] are also are Darvas Box High-Low, but not all, Darvas Box High-Low are MC[3]? True or False?
TRUE...
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