News trading discussion - continuation

USDCAD

Thursday
10:30
21/4/16
SE Interest
(SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Recent reports show inflation growth, the ECB is "pleased" with the results of their policies, oil retreated, even in New Zealand's increase in the consumer price index. Riksbank cut interest rates at the previous meeting in February, probably, his actions satisfy the central bank at the moment. The chance of a further change in the interest rate this time is small, respectively, analysts expect to see rates unchanged this time at the previous level of -0.5%.
Deviation from the last time a non-standard-size projections was 0.05% in view of this, in the flip-flops will add an additional mode, note, thank you.

Thursday
11:30
21/4/16
GB Retail Sales
(GB Retail Sales), England, GPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Applications for unemployment benefits rose and wage rate fell. UK Unemployment Change + 6.7K (negative), UK Avg Earnings - incl bonus 1,8% compared to 2.3% (negative), though short-term decline in the pound reacted for one hour after the release, indicating that the impact of external factors, markets against the background of the dollar is not enough information.
This should warn you about the risks at the time of publication of retail sales. Probably the script to "worse prognosis" would be more comfortable for us, given the turmoil on Brexit and inverted market expectations for interest rate rises by the Bank of England.
Recall that, the "noisier" himself will lead the pound before the release, the more dangerous the likely bids than the "softer" the safer (although the pound is on probation, "safer" is not appropriate expression soon.

Thursday
14:45
21/4/16
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

ECB in March, did well: three reduced interest rates (refinancing of 0% -0.5% deposit, credit 0.25%), launched TLTRO II, expanded the program to stimulate QE / In this indirectly pointed out that these measures will last for a long time . Now Mario Draghi is to sit and wait for the harvest.
According to preliminary reports, the ECB satisfied with the results of his actions, even though they are its critics.
Traditionally, we do not recommend trading on the ECB's actions as risky.
The probability of trading there is no where more interesting will be a press conference by Mario Draghi, we can assume that he will play cat and mouse with the markets, and to be optimistic about his previous actions. Of course it may not enjoy the EUR higher against the dollar, and then there will be an amazing traditional "if it is necessary, we will do.

Thursday
17:30
21/4/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.B

small scalp EU

Do you know If we should change the setting of wheelbarrel trailing for oil and gas news ?

I do not change the settings.

Friday
15:30
22/4/16
CA Core CPI
(CA Core CPI), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

The consumer price index and retail sales in Canada go out at the same time.
Possible conflict.

Odd one here EURCAD, the move did not show until 10 seconds before, but I caught it.

I'm liking this approach more and more. If I would stop trading other approaches and just take these infrequent trades, I'd be much better off lol thanks vvFish, have a great weekend.

Great weekend to everyone.

Wednesday
4:30
27/4/16
AU Consumer Price Index GOOD
(AU CPI), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
27/4/16
GB Advance GDP HOT!
(GB Prelim GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 70.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Wednesday
21:00
27/4/16
US interest rate CRITICAL
(US Federal Funds Rate), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
6% probability trades.

Tuesday
April 26, 2016
At 8:30 am EST the US will release Core Durable Goods Orders.


Good luck everybody!

GU

reminder

AU Consumer Price Index

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Recent reports of the Reserve Bank of Australia tell us that the bank is ready to carry out a "very soft" monetary policy. However, the RBA maintains a record low interest rate at 2% throughout the year, its recent change was May 5, 2015, when the central bank reduced its value of 2.25%. Reduced inflationary pressures at the same time with the growth rate of the AUD will not leave the choice of Glenn Stevens, who will be forced to further reduce interest rates.
While most economists are not intended to reduce the interest rate only because of the decrease in inflation. On the one hand, this is understandable, as the CPI in the results of I quarter 2016 annualized basis is expected to be 1.8% with the target waiting by the Central Bank of 2% - a deviation from the level is not critical to the core consumer price index is expected to at 2% (trimmed mean index), which is equal to all the expectations of the RBA.
In the future, additional pressure on the AUD may have omissions Fed (in terms of increasing their own rates), as well as the global easing of monetary policy, "neighboring" wt economies.
The next RBA meeting will be held May 3, 2016.
Accordingly, the publication of the consumer price index comes just a week before the meeting of the Bank, which adds emphasis to the figures.
The report is not ideal in terms of the technical side of his release, because a sufficiently large data packet may cause a mixed reaction in the market.

GB Advance GDP growth

Economists predict a weakening of the dynamics of weight gain of the British GDP. According to the expected publication of the UK added 0.4% to the economy in the first quarter of 2016 compared with 0,6% IV quarter of 2015.
On slowdown could affect the referendum on the UK out of the European Union, the fact of which has already affected the business activity as a factor of pent-up demand and spending.
Retail is the main engine also indicates a possible weakening.
The Bank of England also warned about the likely reduction of GDP, but in the second quarter of 2016 due to ongoing referendum and possible Brexit, as companies postpone their investment plans for later and "transparent" period.
It is worth noting that this day will also host a meeting of the Fed, which could divert the attention of market participants. At the same time, no serious statements are not expected from the Fedreza.
Technically, you should watch for GBPUSD before release, as its sharp rise or fall could mean the output of fuel movement before the release, and, that is, if not a narrow corridor to the publication will be saved - the likelihood of weak triggers movement at a penetration increases.
The probability of a strong reaction to the report is saved, as it is preliminary and primary data of the British GDP of the first quarter 2016.

US Federal Funds Rate

Traditionally, when preparing to present Fedrez markets next surprise - the action takes place against the backdrop of the press conference by the head and members of the FOMC. This is a natural process when markets need more (and they get) than the protocol text. In the current release of the press conference is not planned. The probability of changes in interest rates in April, according to CME Group is 0%. What can we expect from this event?
The issue rate hike in June is still open, the market will take every opportunity to find clues to the answer. Markets are quite pessimistic and expect only one rate hike this year (around December), while the Fed still says about 2 steps increase and is more optimistic. Therefore, probably, the FOMC considers it necessary to tighten market expectations for a possible leveling of excessive volatility at the time of the actual action. American statistics yet on this side script. FOMC sufficiently independent body, and he does not care at all, be sure to follow the publication.

Any one trade AUD CPI today ?