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Trading Made Simple

  • #68,181
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:02pm Apr 11, 2016 3:02pm
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} There is nothing special about a time frame, price is the same at any moment in time on any time frame, candles are fractals of ticks, put into different time frames. some traders (experienced and novice) can have a difficult time trading small time frames (1M -5M -M15) because things can happen very fast.
I don't know what "fractals of ticks" are but I know that you cannot earn money with a completely random market. I also know that the lower the time frame, the more noise you will have and noise is random. You have more bars but you have to be much more selective in order to get good setups. Some can do that with success but I believe it requires a special talent that is hard to teach/learn. It's more organic and associated with knowing the specific behavior of the pairs you trade.

If someone has a special talent and manages to be profitable in lower time frames, he/she should use it. But in general, a trader will have a better chance of earning consistent money trading in a longer time frame just because it has less noise and is therefore less unpredictable.
  • #68,182
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:27pm Apr 11, 2016 3:27pm
Quoting jmmac
{quote} I don't know what "fractals of ticks" are but I know that you cannot earn money with a completely random market. I also know that the lower the time frame, the more noise you will have and noise is random. You have more bars but you have to be much more selective in order to get good setups. Some can do that with success but I believe it requires a special talent that is hard to teach/learn. It's more organic and associated with knowing the specific behavior of the pairs you trade. If someone has a special talent and manages to be profitable...

yes, good point put forth.
do banks, hedge funds, central banks, commercial traders, etc. trade anything lower than day prices?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,183
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:39pm Apr 11, 2016 3:39pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} yes, good point put forth. do banks, hedge funds, central banks, commercial traders, etc. trade anything lower than day prices?
someone somewhere must be trading...
take GC
the last M1 candle - had 40 standard lots
last M5 - 221
lastM15- 617
last M30 - 1964
and so on,
don't tell me there are enough retail traders to trade at least 40 standard lots PER MINUTE of 24 hours
Fib(onacci) my way to glory
  • #68,184
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:46pm Apr 11, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} I have noticed I tend to do noticeably better on h4 than h1 or m30, I would like more trades though and h4 does not provide as many, ..but then again if i am loosing on other timeframes perhaps it's best i stick to h4 if one is being active scanning the pairs how much h4 setups should he spot in an average week?
statistics shows most traders are more profitable trading the higher timeframes.
it is the entries and exits that counts not the timeframes.

the 'problem' here in trading TMS is that traders are looking only for the reversal setups and only want to take a trade on the APB#1 and APB#2 candles of the reversal.
when we do this, the number of trade opportunities are much fewer . to make up for this, they look at more pairs.
when we look at only these pairs - AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDJPY, EURJPY and USDCAD, these will give you 3 to 5 good trades every week.

what we need to do is to look for Price Action setups at Support and Resistance, and learn also to take trades setups that are in confirmed trend and not just the reversal setups.

see this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post8859363


you need to look for candles which has momentum and the timing to jump in and know where to place your initial stop loss.
in reversal setups, you place SL at the last swing high or swing low, mentioned by all traders over and over again.
but in a trending pair, you pick the entry on a candle with momentum and place your SL using the previous 2 candles high/low
or you can also place your initial SL using the previous candle high/low.
what matter more is your risk and position sizing of your trades.

many traders trade with fix lot size because of their small account. for these traders, a 100pips SL on 0.01lot is a big deal. so they thought better lose 50pips using SL =50pips. They have no idea of the intraday volatility aka noise to hunt all these small stops.
but if I trade with 1% risk, and with a SL of 150pips, and do my position sizing, I stand to lose only 1%.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,185
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:53pm Apr 11, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting billsmith
{quote} someone somewhere must be trading... take GC the last M1 candle - had 40 standard lots last M5 - 221 lastM15- 617 last M30 - 1964 and so on, don't tell me there are enough retail traders to trade at least 40 standard lots PER MINUTE of 24 hours

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GC day candle.png Size: 31 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,186
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:54pm Apr 11, 2016 3:54pm
Quoting billsmith
{quote} someone somewhere must be trading... take GC the last M1 candle - had 40 standard lots last M5 - 221 lastM15- 617 last M30 - 1964 and so on, don't tell me there are enough retail traders to trade at least 40 standard lots PER MINUTE of 24 hours
All the forex orders (including the big players) are traded in particular minutes of the 24 hours, no way around that
But I believe its very hard to obtain forex trade volume since its a decentralized market.

If I have an account with 10000 euros and I'm scalping EURUSD with a 10 pip SL and I'm risking 2% of my account, my position size will be more than 2 standard lots (if my quick calculations are correct).
  • #68,187
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:58pm Apr 11, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting jmmac
{quote} All the forex orders (including the big players) are traded in particular minutes of the 24 hours, no way around that But I believe its very hard to obtain forex trade volume since its a decentralized market. If I have an account with 10000 euros and I'm scalping with a 10 pip SL and I'm risking 2% of my account, my position size will be more than 2 standard lots (if my quick calculations are correct).
yes i guess i was more saying that even if they are trading daily they still have to place orders at some point.
and think of how many banks etc.. there are and how much money they have.
if you look at charts when news comes out, it must be the big boys setting the tone?
Fib(onacci) my way to glory
  • #68,188
  • Apr 11, 2016 4:06pm Apr 11, 2016 4:06pm
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} There is nothing special about a time frame, price is the same at any moment in time on any time frame, candles are fractals of ticks, put into different time frames. some traders (experienced and novice) can have a difficult time trading small time frames (1M -5M -M15) because things can happen very fast.

why don't we look at it in a different way"
We do not trade the timeframe.
We look at timeframes.
We look for a good timing to enter the market in the timeframe of the chart we chose to trade. It can be M1, M5, M15,....
But we follow the market trend using a top down approach in our analysis and now which is the trend of the moment.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,189
  • Apr 11, 2016 4:10pm Apr 11, 2016 4:10pm
Quoting billsmith
{quote} yes i guess i was more saying that even if they are trading daily they still have to place orders at some point. and think of how many banks etc.. there are and how much money they have. if you look at charts when news comes out, it must be the big boys setting the tone?
I really don't know much about that but I would be very surprised if the banks traded the news! News are a roulette and that's why so many trading systems have a rule that forbids trading right before and after a major news release. I don't think banks play the roulette

Maybe they use the information and the market reaction to help make a trading decision, but that comes later. Emmanuel frequently mentions in his analysis, news releases and how they affected market sentiment.
  • #68,190
  • Apr 11, 2016 4:23pm Apr 11, 2016 4:23pm
Quoting billsmith
{quote} yes i guess i was more saying that even if they are trading daily they still have to place orders at some point. and think of how many banks etc.. there are and how much money they have. if you look at charts when news comes out, it must be the big boys setting the tone?

the wonderful thing about this 24 hours forex market is there are orders going in and out at any minute of the 24 hours of any given day.
when I read some bank analyst report I received everyday, they often place buy/sell price levels for the day, but they don't say what time to place the order.
everyone has a different close price of their day.... but many believe NY close should be the correct day close to use. I don't know and I don't care.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,191
  • Apr 11, 2016 4:35pm Apr 11, 2016 4:35pm
Anyone caught the bull rally yesterday?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD Week 15 Arjun setup candle.png Size: 50 KB


do you want to chase this week?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,192
  • Apr 11, 2016 4:42pm Apr 11, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting Islandfx911
Hi Em, If GU closes today bullish and above MA will look at buying pull backs? Regards Rob

okay, a new day candle open now,
we have a TDI cross setup.
but how do we trade this today?

M5 / M15 anyone? show me the money
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,193
  • Apr 11, 2016 5:29pm Apr 11, 2016 5:29pm
Here is what I do for training chart.
Look at all my favourite timeframes in one single screen.
This way, you see the real TDI condition, no need to MTF indicators, which can screw up when poorly coded.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD week 15 Apr 12 Multi-charts view.png Size: 92 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,194
  • Apr 11, 2016 5:53pm Apr 11, 2016 5:53pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} okay, a new day candle open now, we have a TDI cross setup. but how do we trade this today? M5 / M15 anyone? show me the money
Daily char is buy but weekly chart consolidation
????!!!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDcDaily.png Size: 69 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDcWeekly.png Size: 61 KB
  • #68,195
  • Apr 11, 2016 5:55pm Apr 11, 2016 5:55pm
Training chart - EURUSD 12 April

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Week 15 12 April training chart.png Size: 76 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,196
  • Apr 11, 2016 5:58pm Apr 11, 2016 5:58pm
Quoting mortezakh
{quote} Daily char is buy but weekly chart consolidation ????!!!!!!

there is one rule by Triple Screen Trading system traders.
- when there is CONFLICT between different timeframes, Do Not trade!


but to every rule, there is also exception.

rules are meant to be broken... by discretionary traders only.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,197
  • Apr 11, 2016 6:07pm Apr 11, 2016 6:07pm
AUDJPY open trades ... trying to catch the 'correction' ... hmmm very greedy.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY Week 15 open trades Apr 12.png Size: 66 KB


we never know when the reversal will happen but when we follow the river up stream we will eventually come to its source.

follow the rainbow, dare to dream,...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,198
  • Apr 11, 2016 6:19pm Apr 11, 2016 6:19pm
AUDUSD open trades Week 15,

see those noisy H1 around the BRN 0.7600

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Week 15 Apr 12 open trades.png Size: 69 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,199
  • Apr 11, 2016 6:55pm Apr 11, 2016 6:55pm
EURJPY Week 15 Apr 12 Training chart:

Do you trade H1? If you do , then when this H1 close bullish and above its 10EMA, you can buy with small TP... 15 to 20pips.
BRN 123.0 bounce...
Look at those resistance to the left and that 50EMA dynamic resistance... careful if you are intraday trader.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY Week 15 Apr 12 training chart.png Size: 62 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #68,200
  • Apr 11, 2016 7:33pm Apr 11, 2016 7:33pm
Quoting jmmac
{quote} I don't know what "fractals of ticks" are but I know that you cannot earn money with a completely random market. I also know that the lower the time frame, the more noise you will have and noise is random. You have more bars but you have to be much more selective in order to get good setups. Some can do that with success but I believe it requires a special talent that is hard to teach/learn. It's more organic and associated with knowing the specific behavior of the pairs you trade. If someone has a special talent and manages to be profitable...
Don't know about a special talent as you say, I just know that some people can trade 1-15M and do it very well...
Look at a tick chart (MT4 has a poor excuse for one, but it is there) this is what gets turned into candles based on a fixed amount of time. Notice that the tick chart (price) is always moving vertically or Y plane. there is no X plane or dimension till you add a fixed amount of time (candles). There is no noise (may just be semantics) in the so called lower time frames. Lower time frames make the large time frames and there all fractal from price- ticks, time.

Why is this important to understand IMHO, If in your understanding of trading, you read more into a candle and or a time frame than there really is in reality.
Then you are going to be biased improperly in your trading decisions. You will only get lucky so many times based on that understanding. Not saying that a trading system base on lets say H4 or D1 can not work for many traders. There are going to be some repeatable lets say fractals, (patterns) habits, human nature that can be monopolized on.

I feel that there are many advantages and disadvantage to trading the so called lower TF. But I can say the same for the so called higher TF. To me its just a matter of speed which translates to how much screen time I want to put in. Regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
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